U.S. economic growth in 2022 projected to outpace China’s for first time since 1976

For the first time since 1976, US economic growth is expected to surpass that of its greatest economic competitor, China, according to experts.

While China seemed on pace to continue its quick rise to the top of global economics before COVID-19 appeared, the pandemic and its fallout seem to have slowed that growth and caused some experts to wonder if the era of Chinese economic dominance may be coming to an end.

Chang Shu and Eric Zhu of Bloomberg Economics reported last week they expect Chinese gross domestic product to shrink 2.7 percent this year, and if the United States grows at the expected 2.8 percent, the United States will outpace China’s GDP for the first time in decades.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicted in 2018 that the United States would likely outpace China’s economic growth in the next few years, and at the time experts were highly skeptical of the forecast. Now, it appears their predictions were correct as the US averaged about 2 percent growth over China’s 1.8 percent during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

China’s strict COVID-zero policy has hampered its ability to grow at a faster pace since the virus hit, as lockdowns are highly restrictive and force businesses to shutter and manufacturing to slow to a crawl or stop completely during an outbreak or surge of coronavirus.

In addition, China’s previous one-child policy that ended in 2015 has also taken a toll on the country’s production and economy, as birth numbers continue to slide in the country.

The Chinese government has offered minor tax relief efforts in an attempt to address the economic slowdown, but, experts say, while the restrictive COVID rules remain in place, China will continue to face an uphill battle in the economic sector.