What Can We Expect from Pennsylvania?

As the nation’s most populous swing state, Pennsylvania was always going to be key to Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. It’s becoming clear that his reelection will rely on holding the Democrats’ Blue Wall, and that starts with Pennsylvania. With less than five months to go, all eyes are on the Keystone State. Here’s where things stand.

Pennsylvania shows a narrower Trump lead

The majority of polling has shown former president Trump with a consistent lead over President Biden, including significant advantages in the demographically diverse swing states. Trump’s lead has sometimes reached double digits in Georgia and Nevada. Conversely, in the Blue Wall – the industrial region containing the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania – Biden has been more competitive, routinely polling within the margin of error of Trump.

Since his inauguration, Biden has visited Pennsylvania more than 35 times, making eight trips to Philadelphia in the last six months and numerous stops in Pittsburgh. These visits have focused on fundamental Pennsylvania issues such as Biden’s support for organized labor and highlighting Pennsylvania projects that broke ground thanks to the president’s signature infrastructure law.

Some data suggest that these frequent visits are paying off, as Biden consistently polls more competitively in Pennsylvania than in most other battleground states. Biden also drew nearly 150,000 more votes than Trump during their parties’ respective presidential primaries in April. Of course, Nikki Haley’s campaign was the principal reason for Trump’s underperformance. She won’t be on the ballot this November, but Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. probably will be.

The mounting loss of the Democratic Party’s voter-registration advantage in Pennsylvania should raise red flags for the Biden campaign. In 2008, the Democratic Party held a 12% registration advantage over the Republicans. It’s now down to just 4%.

Third-party and indy voters

While losing Democratic voters in the state most critical to Biden’s reelection could have serious implications, whoever wins the majority of Pennsylvania’s consistently growing third-party and independent voters – who now make up more than 15% of the electorate – will be in the driver’s seat for claiming the Commonwealth’s coveted 19 Electoral College votes.

Running alongside Biden in Pennsylvania will be three-term U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr, a popular incumbent who has continuously polled ahead of his well-funded G.O.P. challenger. The Biden campaign will also be deploying as a top surrogate Governor Josh Shapiro, the state’s most popular governor in recent history at this point in his gubernatorial term, and a rising star in the Democratic Party. Such support from high-ranking political officials, while not enough on its own to deliver the state for the president, should give him a boost.

Given that this is the first presidential rematch since 1956, and that Americans have already seen both candidates perform as president, much of this race is already baked in. But there remain a number of key factors to watch in the closing months for clues on how Pennsylvania will vote.

The blue-collar unions

Organized labor is a driving force in Pennsylvania, a state home to almost 800,000 union employees. While the Biden campaign can rely on powerhouse progressive unions such as the SEIU and the Trump campaign can bank on more conservative groups such as the police, an important indicator will be how endorsements break among the blue-collar, traditional trades yet to align with either candidate.

Campaign and party infrastructure will also be crucial. The Biden campaign has already opened at least two field offices in counties that he lost in 2020, and it has a total of 24 offices across the state.

This dwarfs the organizational apparatus of the Trump campaign. “We don’t have an official ground game as of yet,” the GOP county chair in bellwether Lehigh County recently conceded. While Trump has already held signature rallies in Pennsylvania swing counties, it’s hard to imagine his campaign remaining competitive with Biden’s without significant upgrades to its ground game.

Polls will continue to fluctuate. Trump still needs to pick a running mate, and many twists and turns surely lie ahead. In any scenario, however, Pennsylvania looks to be a deciding factor in the race to 270 – and both campaigns know it.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.