Resetting the Race

Donald Trump’s acceptance of the Republican nomination in Milwaukee will cap what is arguably the best three-week stretch any presidential candidate has seen in a long time. The press has spent much of that time focused solely on his opponent’s mental decline and the quest to replace President Biden among Democrats. At the same time, the former president has demonstrated a level of impulse control that no one knew he had, allowing the story to remain squarely on Joe Biden’s fitness for office and his viability as a candidate.

Republican discipline keeps them ahead in the race

Whether or not the momentum continues to be in the Republican’s favor is largely dependent upon how the press frames the race over the next month leading up to the Democratic convention. The most likely scenario is that the media will start framing the race in terms of the size of the all-but-certain Republican wave: Will Trump get 350 Electoral College votes? Are  Minnesota and New Mexico in play? Will the Democrats lose the House and Senate as well? In this scenario, all these questions will dominate the news cycle, depressing Democrats and potentially becoming self-fulfilling.

Historically, predictions about media behavior have been wrong, largely because Donald Trump’s behavior was unpredictable. His ability to say the outlandish to get attention is legendary. If the last week is any indicator, however, Donald Trump and the Republicans won’t do anything to change the story. Many Democrats have been looking for permission from Republicans to take off the gloves after the unfortunate incident last weekend that left one father dead and two others in critical condition. The Republicans, however, have been very disciplined – choosing not to break the past week’s détente. Why would they? Their candidate is ahead in all the swing states.

But if Biden steps aside

There is another scenario for how the next month plays out. If Biden were to announce on Friday that he was dropping out of the race and that Democrats were going to engage in a mini-primary to find his replacement, the month leading up to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago would be dominated by intramural Democratic Party horse race stories. Contenders would be doing televised town halls, morning show appearances, and there might even be a televised debate. All those candidates would be demonstrating their ability to do what Joe Biden apparently can’t – effectively making the case against the former president.

The Chicago convention itself would be newsworthy. Americans would be paying attention. Their ratings and news coverage would certainly eclipse this week’s Republican convention, even with the amplification it received from Sunday’s mass shooting in Pennsylvania. Democrats could change the narrative and, with it, increase the likelihood of retaining the White House and flipping the House of Representatives.

That scenario is entirely up to President Biden. Prior to Sunday, despite numerous calls from Democratic politicians, donors, and left leaning pundits for Biden to pass the torch to a candidate more capable of turning the presidential race into a referendum on Trump, Biden appears determined to stay the course. His response to the calls for him to step aside has moved from defensive to outright hostility that anyone would have the temerity to challenge his entitlement to the nomination.

He can’t argue the primary vote

Biden’s most recent argument, that 14 million Democrats voted for him in the primaries, is also falling flat. Yes, Joe Biden did receive 14 million votes in Democratic primaries. Rank-and-file Democrats, however, are now saying that he should step aside. Given the fraud perpetrated on them by Biden and his handlers, can anyone really blame them for wanting a do-over? In light of the new information laid bare for the American people two weeks ago, Biden should tread lightly when arguing that his support in a heavily rigged primary process where he and his handlers clearly misled the voters about his mental acuity represents the will of Democratic voters.

As the days have passed since June 27, the Biden campaign clearly hoped that the ebbs and flows of the news cycle would do their job and wash the president’s awful performance from the minds of the chattering class. Historically, that might have been sound thinking. Not even the Supreme Court ushering in the age of the Imperial Presidency, however, was able to move the country to a new topic – until Sunday.

The assassination attempt changes the race

The assassination attempt changes everything. If the story doesn’t change abruptly, Republicans will coast to victory in November. While Biden may be thinking the shooting in Pennsylvania has gotten the attention off replacing him, it has paradoxically made his departure from the race even more important. Not only would Democrats have a more capable candidate, but they’d change the race and the media narrative at a time when they desperately need a reset.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.