Is Bob Casey the Last Moderate Standing?

U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is a political unicorn – a Democrat with decidedly centrist views on firearm and abortion access who has somehow survived and thrived in an era of intense polarization. As the only Democrat in Pennsylvania history to win three consecutive Senate elections now attempts to secure a fourth term in 2024, Casey finds himself in a precarious position: trying to showcase his moderate bona fides while placating an increasingly progressive Democratic base.

The Casey Machine v. progressive ideology

The son of a popular former Pennsylvania governor, the 64-year-old Casey has built a formidable political machine over nearly two decades in the Senate. He’s a throwback to an earlier era of retail politics, crisscrossing the state’s 67 counties and cultivating a reputation as a champion of working families. With his aw-shucks demeanor, flannel shirts and khaki pants, and Scranton roots, Casey has managed to maintain crossover appeal in a purple state that can swing wildly between elections. Both my retired “vote blue no matter who” coal-miner stepfather and rabidly pro-MAGA uncle claim they’ll be voting for him.

But Casey’s balancing act is getting trickier by the day. The overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022 has supercharged the abortion debate, leaving little room for nuance or compromise as the individual states work on their own to resolve the abortion question. Progressive activists are demanding full-throated support for abortion rights, while conservatives see an opening to paint Casey as a flip-flopper abandoning his principles.

The abortion shift

Casey’s evolution on abortion epitomizes the broader shifts in the Democratic Party over the past 20 years. When he first ran for Senate in 2006, Casey proudly touted his anti-abortion credentials, declaring: “I believe that life begins at conception and ends when we draw our last breath.” He positioned himself as carrying on the legacy of his late father, who famously sparred with Bill Clinton over abortion at the 1992 Democratic National Convention and who was listed as the respondent on the Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision that had upheld Roe earlier that year.

Fast forward to 2022, and Casey was voting in favor of the Women’s Health Protection Act, a sweeping bill that would enshrine abortion rights in federal law. While he still eschews the “pro-choice” label, Casey now argues that the terminology around abortion has become “antiquated” in the post-Dobbs era.

This rhetorical tap dance speaks to Casey’s political acumen. By avoiding absolutist language, he’s trying to appeal to both suburban women outraged by abortion bans and more conservative rural voters who may be uneasy with unrestricted access. It’s a high-wire act that has largely succeeded so far – Casey cruised to reelection in 2018 with over 55% of the vote.

Casey the Last of the Moderates

But the abortion issue also highlights Casey’s broader challenge as one of the last high-profile moderate Democrats. The party has shifted dramatically leftward since he first took office, embracing progressive policies on everything from health care to climate change. Casey has generally moved with the tide, but at a more cautious pace that has frustrated some activists.

On gun control, for instance, Casey executed a dramatic about-face after the 2012 Sandy Hook massacre. Long a reliable pro-gun vote, he became an evangelist for stricter firearm regulations almost overnight. Casey credits his wife and daughter for helping change his perspective, telling Philadelphia Magazine: “I had to ask myself that question, because normally I would stay in my lane. There’s only two lanes on this. It’s the NRA lane, or the voting for commonsense gun measures lane.”

It was a canny political calculation. After all, gun control polls well among the suburban voting bloc that Casey now desperately needs to win statewide, given the dominance of the GOP in rural areas. But it also speaks to a genuine ideological evolution. Unlike some moderate Democrats who seem to triangulate based purely on polls, Casey appears to have legitimately reconsidered some long-held positions.

Cutting deals

This willingness to adapt while maintaining an aura of small-town authenticity is key to Casey’s appeal. He’s not a firebrand or ideologue, but a pragmatic dealmaker in the mold of friend and mentor Joe Biden. Casey has largely backed the outgoing president’s agenda in the Senate, seeing Biden’s brand of center-left politics as a model for winning in swing states, and supported his bid to stay in the 2024 presidential race until pressure from Democratic leadership convinced him to cede the party’s nomination to Kamala Harris.

On economic issues, Casey has cultivated a pro-labor, populist image that plays well in post-industrial Pennsylvania. He’s been a reliable vote for union priorities and has positioned himself as a champion of the working class. Casey has pushed for expanding the child tax credit and protecting coal miner pensions – bread-and-butter issues that resonate across the political spectrum in the Keystone State.

Bringing home the bacon

Casey’s economic agenda goes beyond traditional labor issues. He’s been a key player in efforts to revitalize American manufacturing and infrastructure. In 2021, Casey worked to pass the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which is set to bring billions of dollars to Pennsylvania for clean energy infrastructure, road and bridge improvements, and expanded high-speed internet access. The following year, he supported the Inflation Reduction Act, which made significant investments in new energy manufacturing sectors like solar panels, wind turbines, and clean battery systems. True to his “America First” economic stance, Casey fought to include strict domestic content standards, ensuring government projects use 100% American-made steel and iron.

The senator has also taken a tough stance on economic relations with China, positioning himself as a defender of American interests against foreign competition. In a June 2023 speech to union workers and business leaders in Pittsburgh that drew heavily on old-line Democratic Party rhetoric, Casey outlined a powerful vision for reasserting U.S. economic dominance through investments in American workers and manufacturing: “America is strong when our workers are strong and when we build our economy up from our workers, not down from the boardroom; when we invest in manufacturing in all of our communities, including small towns and rural areas.” He’s backed up this rhetoric with action, successfully pushing through legislation to screen foreign investments in sensitive sectors with overwhelming bipartisan support.

Democrats galloping left

But Casey’s tightrope walk is getting ever more precarious. The Democratic base is shifting leftward at a rapid clip, embracing policies like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal that would have been considered fringe a decade ago. Casey has resisted going all-in on some of these proposals, instead backing more incremental approaches (the Green New Deal in its entirety, he said in 2019, was “worthy of review”).

This cautious incrementalism increasingly puts Casey at odds with the energy of the progressive movement. While he didn’t face a serious primary challenge in 2024, there are grumblings on the left that he’s not pushing hard enough for transformative change, which may eventually cost him turnout in a state party now led by younger, more left-leaning politicians like 36-year-old U.S. Rep. Summer Lee. Casey risks being seen as a relic of a bygone political era – too liberal for conservatives, too moderate for progressives.

Blood in the water

At the same time, Pennsylvania Republicans smell blood in the water. They’ve made Casey a top target for 2024, seeing his seat as a potential pickup opportunity in a presidential election year. Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO with an accomplished resume and deep pockets, has seized upon the opportunity to reframe the election around Casey’s past support for Harris. Almost immediately upon Harris ascending to the top of the ticket sans primary challengers, the McCormick campaign released an effective series of advertisements that tied the moderate Casey to “the most liberal nominee in U.S. history,” juxtaposing his support for her with Harris speaking in favor of police defunding, open borders, and the deliberate reduction of meat in the American diet.

McCormick, who lost a razor-thin Republican primary to celebrity carpetbagger Mehmet Oz for the 2022 Senate nomination, presents a genuine challenge to Casey’s carefully cultivated everyman image. A West Point graduate, star college wrestler, and decorated veteran, McCormick can come close to matching Casey’s working-class Pennsylvania roots while touting his business acumen. He’s trying to stake out a position as a common-sense conservative, distancing himself from some of the Trump-aligned firebrands who have struggled in purple states (though he was almost onstage with Trump prior to the attempted assassination of the former president in Butler, PA).

Clash of the moderates

The 2024 Senate race, then, is shaping up as a clash between two versions of moderation – Casey’s old-school Democratic populism versus McCormick’s boardroom conservatism. It’s a throwback to an earlier political era, before bombast and culture war posturing came to dominate campaigns, and certainly a far cry from Oprah’s television doctor, Mehmet Oz, going head-to-head with lumbering, tattooed giant John Fetterman two years ago.

But Casey and McCormick must contend with the new realities of our hyperpolarized age. Every vote and statement will continue to be scrutinized for ideological purity, with activists on both sides pushing the candidates toward the extremes. The challenge for both men will be appealing to the shrinking middle without alienating their respective bases.

For Casey, this means maintaining his delicate balancing act on contentious issues like abortion. He’ll likely emphasize his support for some government funding restrictions while arguing that a total ban goes too far. On the economy, Casey has doubled down on his populist rhetoric, running loads of advertisements with local workers and painting the wealthy McCormick as an out-of-touch plutocrat who’ll sell out working families.

Is Casey a career politician?

McCormick, for his part, has portrayed Casey as a career politician who has lost touch with Pennsylvania values. His campaign has highlighted Casey’s unavoidable leftward drift on social issues while arguing that the incumbent’s economic policies are outdated in the 21st century. Both candidates have talked at length about innovation, job creation, and making Pennsylvania competitive in the global economy — certainly nothing innovative to us Pennsylvanians, who have been hearing this at least since the beginning of deindustrialization. But McCormick’s current round of Harris-themed advertisements, which can be seen as putting paid to the notion of Casey as Rust Belt moderate, could tip the scales in the most purple of states.

The race will serve as a test of whether old-fashioned retail politics can still prevail in the age of social media and nationalized elections. Casey’s strength has always been his ground game – showing up in khakis and flannel shirts at union halls, county fairs, and community events across the state. He’s a throwback to an era when politicians were expected to press the flesh and listen to constituents’ concerns directly.

McCormick, with his corporate background, struggles to match Casey’s common touch. But he’s making up for it with a massive advertising blitz fueled by both personal wealth and Republican super PACs that’s reminding us of his wrestling accolades and military service.

Presidential politics

The outcome may hinge on how national factors like the presidential race – will the same progressive energy that’s helping Harris mobilize Hollywood and the liberal business wing of the party cost Casey at the polls, or could the possible selection of popular Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as Harris’ running mate help Casey run up the score in his home state? – and the overall economic impact on voter sentiment. Casey will try to localize the race, focusing on his record of delivering for Pennsylvania. McCormick will likely nationalize things more, tying Casey to Harris and arguing for a check on Democratic excesses in Washington.

Looming over it all is the specter of Donald Trump and the revitalized MAGA movement. Casey has long been a vocal Trump critic, particularly his brash style, which plays well with the Democratic base but risks alienating some of the working-class voters who’ve drifted toward the GOP. McCormick has walked a fine line himself – appealing to Trump supporters without embracing the former president’s most controversial positions (unlike Oz, who lost a razor-thin race to stroke-damaged Fetterman two years ago).

The race also raises broader questions about the future of both parties. Casey represents an older strain of Democratic politics – pro-labor, culturally moderate, and focused on kitchen-table economic issues. It’s an approach that’s worked well in the industrial Midwest, but one that’s increasingly under threat from both the progressive left and the populist right.

Toward a post-Trump America

McCormick, meanwhile, is trying to chart a post-Trump course for the GOP while Trump is front and center in the national discourse – one that maintains the party’s conservative economic principles while jettisoning some of the more inflammatory rhetoric that’s turned off suburban voters. Few Republicans have managed to strike that balance successfully in recent years, but those that have, like New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, have fared well in statewide races.

Regardless of the outcome, the Pennsylvania Senate race will be a bellwether for the political mood of the country. For Casey, it’s a chance to cement his legacy as one of the last true moderates in American politics. A fourth term would be unprecedented for a Pennsylvania Democrat, a testament to Casey’s political skill and personal appeal. Win or lose, he’s likely to be remembered as a bridge between eras – a politician who managed to evolve with the times (at least for a time) without entirely abandoning his roots.

Casey the living fossil?

In many ways, Casey is a sort of legislative horseshoe crab, a living fossil that exists as a remnant of a Democratic political ecosystem that no longer exists. Whether that makes him a valuable relic with some insights for the future – former U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, another scion of a well-connected political family who lost the 2022 Democratic senate primary to Fetterman, seems like a logical successor – or an outdated curio remains to be seen. But in an age of rigid partisanship and ideological purity tests, there’s something to be said for a politician willing to tenaciously stake out the middle ground, consequences be damned.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.