New Polling Shows that Harris Can’t Be Counted Out in PA

SP&R’s two most recent polls – one showing Joe Biden up 5 points in March and now Kamala Harris up 4 points in July (conducted July 22-28), suggest the race is far from over in Pennsylvania – and Harris can’t be counted out. In our latest poll, Harris holds a 4-point, (47% to 43%) lead over Donald Trump. Among those “most likely to vote,” which includes a subsample of 560 interviews, Harris’s lead is 2 points (46% to 44%). The poll’s margin of error for a 600–sample size is +/-4.0%, so technically this is a “dead heat” race.

Harris and Democratic enthusiasm

However, a main reason why Harris leads is that she seems to have already energized the Democratic base in her short term since being handed the baton by Biden. In our poll, Democrats sport a 7.67 mean score in the metric of “enthusiasm,” only fractions of a degree away from Republicans, at a slightly higher 7.78 score. The difference is not statistically significant. This question asks voters to rank on a 10-point scale how interested and excited they are for the upcoming election in November, with “10” being the highest. In other words, Democrats are just as enthusiastic about voting in November. This dynamic can’t be understated because it affects everything from garden variety turnout to sophisticated absentee ballot harvesting conducted by the two major political parties.

This wasn’t always the case, since polling earlier in the year showed Republicans with a clear “enthusiasm” gap on intensity (and eagerness) to vote. It got even more fervent following the assassination attempt of Trump at last month’s Butler rally. But now that’s presumably changed, and Democrats/Harris could be in the drivers’ seat.

Will Pennsylvania buy what Trump has to sell?

And the poll suggests that Trump hasn’t yet conclusively sold his economic plans to Pennsylvania voters worried about inflation and the economy. Sure, Trump is winning “immigration” voters by a whopping 66-to-28 margin – a key platform of his campaign plan. But among voters who say inflation and the economy are top issues that will influence their vote, only 50% of voters are leaning toward Trump, while 38% are leaning toward Harris. Inflation and the economy are rated the single most important issues among likely voters, at 38%. This suggests some voters remain unconvinced that Trump would be a better president to rein in inflation and improve the economic security for all of us.

Another reason why Harris can’t be counted out in Pennsylvania is due to regional preferences. In our poll, Harris leads Trump 55-to-35 in the four vote-rich, collar counties around Philadelphia (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery). When you add to this Harris’s massive 73-to-14 lead in Philadelphia proper, you now have accumulated 1 out of every 3 voters in the Keystone State. Add in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh and its suburbs), where Harris is already overperforming Biden (when compared against our last Trump/Biden poll), and now you are up to more than 4 in 10 voters in the state. So basically, the math is working for Harris. The prior strength that Trump was showing with black voters according to previous polling has just not manifested.

Is the Republican base underperforming?

Another factor in Harris’ favor is underperformance among the GOP base. Trump MAGA rallies of course include tens of thousands in attendance, but in our objective poll of 600 “Likely Voters” we show that Trump is only getting 85% of the GOP vote. The problem with this is that you need at least 95% (of the GOP vote) in a purple state like Pennsylvania to win. Exit polls will confirm this. So, Trump is technically underperforming with GOP voters. Consequently, Robert Kennedy, Jr. is syphoning 3% of the GOP vote from Trump in our hypothetical match up (while 5% of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Harris). An additional 6% of Republicans said they were still undecided.

In the more important cohort of what we affectionately call “swing” voters, or those who tell us in our surveys they usually split their tickets in most elections, Harris leads narrowly 47-to-41. These swing voters represent upwards of 2 to 3 of every 10 voters in Pennsylvania. If you belong to a legislative district where the straight R or D vote doesn’t get you to 51% in a general election, you tend to rely on the “swing” voters to put you over the top. You simply can’t win a state like Pennsylvania without this critical cohort of the population.

The independent factor

Our polling shows these “swing” voters are typically moderate on social and cultural issues (like gun control, abortion, and immigration), but fiscally conservative on taxes and spending. They are suburban moms, stay-at-home dads, and registered Independents all wrapped into one. This is a tell-tale sign that those highly coveted “independents” we always care so much about could be receptive to the Harris brand. Again, she can’t be counted out.

Another factor that could be influencing results in Harris’ favor is that Pennsylvania’s popular governor, Josh Shapiro, has given the Harris campaign much needed “street cred.” He’s done this with his high-profile public endorsements of Harris, including being featured in major news stories suggesting the popular governor is on the Harris short list for vice president. In our poll, Shapiro has an impressive 55% approval rating – this notwithstanding the fact that only 45% of our sample includes registered Democrats. Comparatively speaking, Shapiro’s approval rating only two short years into his term shows that he is overperforming his two Democratic predecessors, Tom Wolf and Ed Rendell, in popularity.

Can Harris stay ahead?

Will we see a shift in enthusiasm in future polling? Will the Harris campaign be able to maintain their current lead? Will the Trump campaign be able to effectively close the sale with inflation voters? These are the questions we will be looking to answer in the final months of the campaign season.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.