The Risks and Opportunities for Shapiro as Vice Presidential Candidate

Late Friday afternoon, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker suggested that Shapiro was Harris’ running mate in a tweet that caused an uproar as reporters chased down the story.

Parker posted:

Proud to be back with so many leaders from across our region supporting @KamalaHarris for President and @JoshShapiroP for VP!

and attached a professionally made video with voters, elected officials including Shapiro, and labor leaders cheering on the ticket.

A spokesperson for the Pennsylvania governor’s office dismissed the nature of the post.

Shapiro makes a good impression – on a conservative – then blows it

PITTSBURGH — Ray Mikesell was serving breakfast in his restaurant in the Strip District here when he first met Josh Shapiro while he was running for governor two years ago. Although Mikesell is a conservative Republican from western Pennsylvania and Shapiro is a liberal Democrat from the Philadelphia suburbs, Shapiro made a good first impression. Mikesell shared his concerns as a small businessman dealing with rising crime in the city, inflationary costs, and difficulty finding workers. Shapiro listened carefully and outlined some of his policy solutions.

“I thought he had a balanced perspective and I was impressed,” Mikesell recalled. “I really thought he would do a lot of good.”

An acclaimed local chef known for his “Sunday Supper” events that draw people from all over the region to break bread together the way families used to, Mikesell said his view of Shapiro changed abruptly when he watched a clip of him on MSNBC last week discussing former President Donald Trump.

“I’m sick and tired of Donald Trump shit-talking America,” said Shapiro.

“As soon as I heard him bashing Trump all that goodwill went out the window. It wasn’t even about him going after Trump, I mean show a little decorum, you are the governor of Pennsylvania and you are supposed to set an example, be a leader,” he said, adding that if this is the kind of vice presidential nominee Shapiro would be, Mikesell wants none of it.

Shapiro on the short list

As Kamala Harris finalizes the process of choosing a running mate, Shapiro’s name is believed to be on the shortlist. It makes sense: He’s the popular governor of a state the Democrats believe they must carry in order to prevail. And after Trump was nearly assassinated in western Pennsylvania, Shapiro was a voice of reason and empathy. But there is an inherent conflict at work here. Many independents and swing voters supported Shapiro specifically because they saw him as a pragmatist who doesn’t indulge in the nasty discourse that dominates the national stage these days. Yet the veep’s role is traditionally that of an attack dog.

In other words, what made Shapiro popular in the first place wasn’t hyper-partisan rhetoric. It was doing things like showing up in East Palestine when a train derailment disaster struck along the Ohio-Pennsylvania border. Or when a critical stretch of Interstate 95 – one of the nation’s busiest highways – collapsed in Philadelphia, and Shapiro coordinated the multi-agency response that rebuilt and reopened the highway in 12 days.

Born in Kansas City, Missouri, Shapiro’s political career began when he ran for the state legislature in 2004 in a conservative district, the one he grew up in, where he personally knocked on more than 18,000 doors – and won in an upset.

Rising in the ranks

He rose up quickly in the ranks in the legislature, becoming the first deputy speaker of the House, the result of a brokered deal that resulted in the election of moderate Republican Dennis O’Brien who, in turn, named him deputy speaker.

Shapiro subsequently ran and won for the post of county commissioner in Montgomery, where he helped flip the once-dominant Republican red county to Democratic blue.

He ran two successful races for statewide election as state attorney general before turning to an open governor’s race in 2022. With little resistance in the primary, he cruised to the Democratic Party nomination. In the general election, he was blessed with good luck by drawing state Sen. Doug Mastriano as an opponent. A former U.S. Army officer, Mastriano was a MAGA devotee who marched inside the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. Shapiro defeated him easily, even winning conservative counties that Donald Trump carried twice.

The implication of 2022 is that if Kamala Harris chooses Shapiro, a swath of Trump-Shapiro voters in this state have a tough choice to make.

This same dynamic applies to Josh Shapiro, too. His confidants believe he has national ambitions, but the opportunity wasn’t supposed to come this quickly. Keystone College political science professor Jeff Brauer explains that there are upsides and downsides for Shapiro if he is offered (and accepts) the role of running for vice president.

With opportunities come risks

“With opportunities come risks,” said Brauer. “In politics, one has to weigh the opportunities and risks, and opportunities in politics only come along every so often.”

Timing can be a tricky thing in politics, Brauer notes. “Shapiro seems to think the opportunity to become a vice presidential candidate early in his career is worth the risk of possibly tarnishing his brand as a moderate, pragmatic governing leader,” he said.

Being a vice presidential candidate comes with its own particular challenges, as J.D. Vance is quickly learning. For one thing, as Brauer pointed out, veeps “rarely get to express their own views publicly” – even if they disagree with the presidential nominee.

For example, if Harris sticks to her previous pledge to end fracking on the first day of her presidency, the veep inherits this position – even if it’s deeply unpopular in this state. The same is true regarding her views on guns, the border, crime, and even the Middle East war, which might especially prove problematic for Shapiro, who strongly supports Israel.

Can he make a difference?

David Urban, a Republican strategist who is nonetheless personal friends with Shapiro, admires the governor but suggests that being Harris’ running mate wouldn’t necessarily showcase his talents. “I think he is a gifted political athlete that I have known since he was the chief of staff for Congressman Joe Hoeffel,” he said. But that the essence of that talent is his ability as a consensus-builder – “That is not the Josh I saw standing on the stage going after Trump,” he said.

Urban does not think Harris can win the state of Pennsylvania because of her progressive views on guns, fracking, immigration, and crime, “and I don’t think placing Shapiro on the ticket is going to move Pennsylvania to the win column for Democrats,” he said.

Instead of delivering the Keystone State to Democrats, Urban says that Shapiro’s popularity might crumble if he’s saddled with the dual baggage of defending problematic policy positions and attacking Republicans in personal terms.

“When you become the veep candidate … your points of view don’t exist anymore,” he said. “I don’t understand the cognitive gymnastics you have to do to get there, and I am a friend with Josh and admire him. I just don’t admire this guy dragging around the Harris baggage and I know voters won’t either.”

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.