Is Closing the Sale With ‘Inflation’ Voters Enough for Trump?

In Pennsylvania, our most recent poll (conducted between September 22nd and 28th, with a sample size of 700 likely voters) shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump tied at 46% to 46% – a statistical tie. The remaining 6% are undecided; 1% would choose another candidate. This poll shows a slight tightening of the race from our last poll (in late July) when we had Harris leading by 4 points (or 47% to 43%). So, what’s changed?

Trump is selling his sympathies on the economy

A key reason why Trump is more competitive: He is making serious inroads selling his economic plans to Pennsylvania voters worried about inflation and the economy. For instance, among voters who say inflation and the economy are the top issues that will influence their vote, 57% are voting for Trump, while 34% are voting for Harris. This is significant. In our last poll, Trump was only winning inflation voters by a 50% to 38% margin, so he’s significantly improved with this cohort of the population that highly rates the economy and inflation as a top issue.

This is extremely important because inflation and the broader economy are rated as the single most important issues that will influence voters’ choices for president – at 45% from a list of eight we presented to poll respondents. It rates at an even higher 53% among Republican voters. This suggests many voters think Trump would be a better president to rein in inflation and improve economic security for all of us.

The white non-college vote

Another reason why Trump is more competitive (when compared with our last poll) is that he is winning non-college educated, white working-class voters by a 53% to 39% margin over Harris. This election is shaping up to be a referendum on good old fashioned pocketbook issues, namely inflation and the economy, and election results over the years continue to show that white, working-class voters have been trending away from the Democratic Party for years. These voters are a key constituency in a state like Pennsylvania, and represent 1 out of every 3 voters, according to our polling.

In past decades, the Democratic Party was the party of white working-class voters, but not anymore. Trump has brought many of them into the fold with his populist ideas about the economy, trade, and international affairs. However, according to CNN exit polls in 2020, Trump won these white working-class voters by a 66% to 34% margin over Joe Biden, so he’s technically underperforming. How these white, non-college educated working-class voters cast their ballots in November will ultimately decide this election.

Can Trump prevail with the economy alone?

The key takeaway for Trump is that he has built a campaign largely around inflation and the economy, and his message is starting to resonate because he leads with these voters. Moreover, in a recent CNN poll taken after the most recent presidential debate, Trump holds a 9-point lead over Harris on the issue of who voters trust more to improve the economy. So, this will be the defining issue of his campaign, because Trump’s entire campaign is built around the narrative that Americans are experiencing real hardships with ever-rising grocery and gasoline prices and a beleaguered economy under Joe Biden.

For Harris, central to the Democratic playbook and her electability in November, is getting voters to vote on the issue of protecting democracy (from Donald Trump), safeguarding abortion access, and making healthcare more accessible and affordable – three key issues where she holds leads. For instance, voters who say abortion access is a key issue that will influence their vote in November are breaking for Harris by an 86% to 11% margin. This is important since abortion access rates as the single most important issue among Democrats, at 36%, even outpacing the economy, inflation, crime, and public safety. The abortion issue will be a pivotal one given the oversized focus it has had with voters since the overturning of Roe v. Wade. If most voters go to the polls thinking about reproductive rights, Harris is likely to prevail.

Personal level

Moreover, in the CNN poll referenced earlier in key battleground states, Harris leads Trump by 5 points on the issue of “which candidate cares about people like me.” This means many voters simply like the person Harris is and tend to identify with her on a personal level. Her national brand is such that according to RealClearPolitics, 48.3% of Americans have a favorable view of her, compared to 48.0% who view her unfavorably. So, will voters cast their vote in November based on the economy, which would favor Trump, or on which candidate they think has their back, which favors Harris?

Will the Trump campaign be able to effectively close the sale with inflation and economy voters? If he does, Trump is likely to prevail in November. Alternatively, will voters go to the polls and vote on the candidate they personally like the most, or the one who they feel has their back? Or will they be voting on abortion access and protecting democracy? If they do, Harris should prevail. These are the questions SP&R will be looking to answer in our final poll in mid to late October.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.