Is Fetterman Running Out of Room?

U.S. Sen. John Fetterman’s political career has always been a high-wire act. The 6’8″ senator, who survived a near-fatal stroke during his 2022 campaign, has managed to keep his balance by constantly reinventing himself. But as Pennsylvania trends increasingly red and his approval ratings slide, even his trademark adaptability may not be enough to save him in 2028.

Fetterman tries to turn moderate

Fetterman’s latest transformation – from progressive darling to pro-Israel moderate who gleefully antagonizes the Democratic left – represents perhaps his most dramatic pivot yet. At pro-Israel rallies, he cuts an unmistakable figure: his towering frame draped in an Israeli flag over his signature hoodie and shorts, ever-changing hipster facial hair completing his evolution from blue-collar cosplayer to centrist provocateur.

This is familiar territory for Fetterman, whose entire political identity was built on careful calibration. Despite his affected working-class aesthetic – the shorts, the tattoos, the shaved head, the NFL lineman build – he grew up wealthy in York, more than 200 miles east on the turnpike and a cultural universe away from the struggling steel town of Braddock where he would later serve as mayor. His success has always depended on this careful balance between authenticity and artifice.

Fetterman’s political predicament is becoming clearer with each new poll. His support among Pennsylvania’s youth has evaporated according to Quinnipiac University’s January 2024 survey, which revealed a 17-point underwater rating with voters aged 18-34. Only 28%  viewed him favorably – a major reversal for a politician who rode young progressive enthusiasm to a close victory in 2022. This collapse stems largely from his fervent embrace of Israel following the October 7 Hamas attacks, a stance that’s increasingly toxic with younger voters. New York Timesmes/Siena polling captured the scope of this disconnect on Israel: young Americans back Palestinians over Israel by a 20-point margin.

But is he a moderate?

The numbers barely qualify him as moderate, despite his carefully cultivated image. That 97% alignment with Biden and Harris’ agenda puts him squarely in the progressive camp on actual votes, regardless of his theatrical breaks with the party on specific issues. It’s a voting record that would be unremarkable for a senator from Massachusetts or California, but poses serious political risks in an increasingly purple Pennsylvania.

These contradictions make his narrow victory over Dr. Mehmet Oz in 2022 look even more precarious in retrospect. He barely defeated celebrity carpetbagger Oz, helped largely by the presence of catastrophically bad gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano at the top of the Republican ticket. His narrow victory came despite – or perhaps because of – his obvious struggles following his stroke, which turned his debate performances into painful spectacles that may have earned him a few sympathy votes.

Now, having recovered much of his speaking ability, Fetterman has positioned himself as a chamber pot-stirrer in the mold of retiring West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin. He took an aggressive stance against now-former New Jersey Democrat Robert Menendez following corruption charges and mounted theatrical protests against congressional dress codes. These performances, along with his unwavering support for Israel, have earned him the ire of progressives who once championed him.

Disconnect between image and record

This maverick positioning recalls other memorable Rust Belt political figures, like Youngstown’s Jim Traficant, who dominated east Ohio politics for decades with a similarly outrageous personal style before corruption charges finally ended his career. But where Traficant maintained consistent support from his base through steadfast advocacy for labor unions that offset his against-the-grain opposition to support for Israel and the Internal Revenue Service, Fetterman’s positions have proven more mercurial.

His evolution on fracking illustrates this pattern. Once staunchly opposed to the practice, Fetterman now at least concedes that it is vital to Pennsylvania’s economy. He’s similarly modified his stance on dairy farming subsidies and various other issues where progressive orthodoxy conflicts with state interests. While this flexibility has helped him survive politically, it’s left him with an increasingly unclear identity.

Indeed, the disconnect between Fetterman’s maverick image and his actual voting record is particularly sharp on energy policy, where his support for Biden administration initiatives directly threatens those Pennsylvania jobs he now claims he wants to protect. Despite positioning himself as a defender of Pennsylvania’s energy sector, Fetterman has backed some of the administration’s most aggressive anti-fossil fuel measures. He vocally supported the EPA’s Clean Power Plant Rule, which effectively mandates 90% carbon capture for power-generating facilities by 2032 – a de facto ban on coal and natural gas that could devastate 13 states, including Pennsylvania.

Fetterman fell in line on LNG exports

His stance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports is equally telling. When the Biden administration announced a pause on new LNG export approvals – a direct hit to Pennsylvania, the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer – Fetterman and outgoing Democratic Sen. Bob Casey issued what amounted to a performative protest statement before falling in line behind the administration. Even after a federal judge blocked the pause, Fetterman remained quiet as the administration appealed the ruling.

The regional political landscape isn’t helping. GOP registrations are outpacing Democratic registrations, suggesting that the state could be going the same way as Ohio, once the most famous toss-up of them (“As Ohio goes, so goes the nation”). The energy policies Fetterman has actually supported threaten what remains of Pennsylvania’s industrial base, from restricting pipeline development to supporting aggressive EPA regulations that could accelerate the closure of remaining manufacturing facilities.

Fetterman’s team seems to be betting that his unique personal brand – part ersatz blue-collar appeal, part calculated political theater – will continue to transcend traditional partisan divisions. But his voting record makes it increasingly difficult to maintain the illusion of independence. His occasional breaks with progressive orthodoxy on cultural issues like using lawfare to campaign against Trump can’t disguise his reliable support for the administration’s broader agenda.

Looking ahead to 2028

The question now is whether Fetterman can pull off one final transformation before 2028. His options appear limited: continue trying to thread an increasingly narrow needle between progressives and moderates, or make the ultimate pivot by switching parties. Neither path offers any guarantees in a state where the political ground is shifting beneath his feet.

For the moment, Fetterman remains too big a figure to ignore. His comeback from near-death has captured national attention, and his confrontational style generates reliable headlines. But political gravity eventually pulls even the largest orbiting objects back down to earth. Unless he can genuinely reinvent himself in a way that resonates with Pennsylvania’s rightward drift, this shapeshifting senator may have run out of forms to take.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.