Trump’s Endgame

What lies ahead now that Americans have just witnessed one of the most dramatic trade gambits seen at the beginning of a presidential term? By most accounts, Trump is doing exactly what he promised during the campaign and has encountered little resistance to his plans. Republicans are giddy, and Democrats are in disarray. But will things stay that way? Unlikely. Trump’s second honeymoon will eventually fade, and the focus will turn to what happens in 2028. Trump recently demonstrated that he understands his current actions are part of a sequential game with the Democrats when he said, “They’re not just after me, they’re after you – I’m just standing in their way.”

Trump planned his opening gambit well – but what is his goal for four years from now?

Trump and his cabinet have meticulously planned his fast and furious opening moves. Such organization suggests that Trump has scripted his next set of moves and thought about the endgame as well. Let’s begin by using backward induction to unlock the motivations of Trump’s sequential game plan that ends with the 2028 election results. There are three possible final scenarios: Trump builds a strong populist coalition, and Republicans keep control; Trump’s plans fail, and the Democrats return to power; or the election is a toss-up.

Trump 2.0 understands what is at stake in 2028. If the Democrats regain power, they may immediately jail him and his family and liquidate his businesses. If you believe these things are likely, and you’ve been put through a personal hell by your adversaries, why would you willingly hand power back to them? He won’t. He has 47 months to rebuild the federal government in his image. He will double down and do everything in his power to help the Republican Party stay in power and build a lasting coalition. Achieving this end also guarantees that his legacy is secure.

Trump knows what the Democrats did

What lengths would he go to ensure that Republicans win? Keep in mind that he has already seen what the Democrats were willing to do to keep him from winning in 2024: The FBI raided Mar-a-Lago, subjected Trump to four separate prosecutions, banned him from social media sites, and repeatedly called him Hitler. In addition, he survived two assassination attempts. If you were in Trump’s shoes, would you turn the cheek and play nice, or play hardball? We all know which option Trump will choose.

Given his desired endgame, there is a danger he will ease into what has been described by political scientists as “competitive authoritarianism,” in which democratic institutions still exist but are regularly abused, leading to an “electoral competition that is real but unfair.” Trump can’t abolish the other branches of government, the free press, and other tools of accountability for fear of being seen as illegitimate, but he could find ways to weaken or circumvent them.

Democrats fear the worst – but have none to blame but themselves

Democrats are predicting the worst. They should, however, first acknowledge their role in changing the stakes of the game for our republic. If the Democrats had won in 2024, they would have doubled down as well. They would have aimed to expand the number of Supreme Court justices to gain control of the court over the next few years, banned dissenting voices on social media outlets, let in 10 million more illegal immigrants, and pursued policies that would have likely rigged future elections in their favor. For Democrats, the loss to Donald Trump particularly stings because they made Donald Trump 1.0 into Donald Trump 2.0. What did not kill him made him stronger. Trump means business today, and he is a wrecking ball.

Trump recently posted on X this quote attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte:

He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.

He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 15, 2025

The post, which has been viewed more than 200 million times in less than a week, should remind us that the clock is ticking. The game’s expiration date is less than four years away, as irrevocable changes to the republic we know are being put in place. This post should be taken as a warning to all Americans.

Reshaping American institutions

America’s institutions could be inexorably reshaped by Trump 2.0. He could accomplish this by using a veneer of legitimacy: DOGE, executive orders, America First initiatives, and “popular” policies that defy traditional Republican and Democratic identities. The new normal would feature Trump traveling the globe to reset the world order. American pride would slowly be restored. Trade wars would be fought and won. Yes, America would be great again, but in the mold of a new ruler, and not as the Founders intended.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.