Why Europe’s Institutional Status Quo is Now a Security Risk

As the 62nd Munich Security Conference concludes, the halls of the Bayerischer Hof are buzzing with a phrase that was, until recently, confined to the fringes of academic realism: “Dormant NATO.” The doctrine, quietly gaining traction in Washington, suggests a future where the United States remains a treaty member on paper but withdraws its operational “brain”—the troops, the hardware, and the command structure—leaving Europe to manage the first chair of its own defense.

Europe has depended on the United States for its own security

For decades, the European Union has treated its security like a utility bill paid by a distant relative. But as the Greenland Shock and the rise of transactionalism in American foreign policy prove, that relative is moving out. The problem is not just that Europe’s shield is thinning; it is that the hand holding the shield is fractured.

The Failure of the Moated Castle

Last week, EU leaders gathered at Alden Biesen’s castle for what was billed as a Resistance Summit. They spoke of multi-speed Europe, “Buy European” industrial policies, and the 28th regime for startups. These are noble pursuits, but they are tactical band-aids on a strategic wound.

The Alden Biesen Declaration missed the elephant in the room: Governance. You cannot have a multi-speed Europe if you have a “No-Speed Executive.” Currently, the European Union is led by a two-headed presidency—the Commission and the Council—often at odds, frequently redundant, and always subject to the paralyzing vetoes of 27 national capitals. In a world of Active NATO, where the Americans  provided the unified command, this fragmentation was an expensive luxury. In a world of Dormant NATO, it is a catastrophic vulnerability.

The Hamiltonian Necessity

Alexander Hamilton, writing in Federalist No. 70, warned that “a feeble Executive implies a feeble execution of the government.” He argued that “energy in the Executive” is the leading character of a sovereign power.

Manfred Weber, as head of the European People’s Party in the EU Parliament recently proposed to merge the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council. It is the first real Hamiltonian move we have seen in a generation. It is not, as critics claim, a “Brussels power grab.” It is an organizational necessity for survival. When Washington goes dormant, Brussels must go “live.” To fill the vacuum left by a receding US presence, the EU needs a singular President—a singular face to negotiate with the White House and manage the €74B SAFE defense fund and the European nuclear umbrella.

2027: The Institutional Tripwire

The status quo is often defended as stability, but in 2026, the status quo is exposure. The EU is currently asking European companies to compete with US and Chinese giants while managing the internal market with 27 different rulebooks. It then asks Europe’s armies to deter external threats while the command structure is a committee of 27 veto-holders.

The clock is ticking toward May 2027, when the term of the European Council President is up for renewal. This is the EU’s Hamiltonian Moment. Instead of a routine appointment, 2027 should be the year to double hat the top roles. They can prove to the markets, and to their adversaries, that Europe is no longer a confederation of convenience, but a unified sovereign actor.

Europe has a Sovereign Choice

The choice is stark. They can continue with the fragmented leadership that has left them speechless on the global stage, or they can embrace a unified Executive Presidency capable of turning Europe’s collective wealth into collective power.

If they choose the former, they remain a well-regulated playground for the world’s superpowers. If they choose the latter, they build the European Shield that 89 percent of their citizens are now demanding. The Dormant NATO doctrine is not a threat to be managed; it is a signal to be answered. It is time to merge the presidencies and finally give Europe the energy it needs to lead itself.

This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.