China’s 2021 birth rate falls to its lowest level in 60 years

China’s population growth rate has fallen to its lowest level in 60 years, barely outnumbering deaths in 2021 despite government initiatives to increase population growth and stave off a demographic crisis.

The population growth rate dropped in 2021 to 0.34 per 1,000 people. Across China, 10.62 million babies were born in 2021, a rate of 7.52 per thousand people, the national bureau of statistics said on Monday.

In the same period 10.14 million deaths were recorded, a mortality rate of 7.18 per thousand, producing a population growth rate of just 0.34 per thousand head of population. The rate of growth is the lowest since 1960, and adds to the findings of last May’s once-a-decade census, which found an average annual rise of 0.53%, down from 0.57% reported from 2000 to 2010.

“The demographic challenge is well-known, but the speed of population ageing is clearly faster than expected,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset management, told Reuters. “This suggests China’s total population may have reached its peak in 2021. It also indicates China’s potential growth is likely slowing faster than expected.”

Huang Wenzheng, a demography expert with the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation, said birth numbers were likely to fluctuate in the 10 million range before declining further in the absence of more policy changes.

“But policies will provide greater support for the birth rate in the longer run,” Mr Huang said. “Career advancements could be tied to whether you have children or not.” he said there could be “economic incentives, or even direct cash payouts by society to meet the cost of raising a family”.