Another war of intelligence

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is the 18^th day of February in the year 2022. I will be talking with you about the threatened war between Russia and Ukraine with the possible involvement of NATO including the United States.

Hills to die on – and justifiable war weariness

There are, as usual, a lot of hills to die on this week including Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau invoking the Emergencies Act to put down with force a peaceful act of civil disobedience. We also have rising inflation with 7.5% in January, the worst in 42 years resulting in Americans getting poorer each day as their wages are stolen by inflation, and soaring rates of violent crime. I have decided, however, to turn my attention to the plains of Russia and Ukraine which have been fought over for centuries and are threatening the world again.

The world is tired of war, and it collectively groans at the thought of yet more blood and treasure expended for no good reason. If we have war, it will again be a war of intelligence because the brave leader must rally the people to sacrifice to defeat yet another blood thirsty dictator. Last week I told you that intelligence is provided to the president or leader from a variety of sources. Those sources know what the President wants to do, and their intelligence has a way of reaffirming and bolstering that decision. They gather it for him, and he briefs Congressional leadership to get them on board and then the people are rallied.

Tendency to read reasons for war into intelligence – a lesson from Iraq

Even The New York Times is aware of this tendency, so allow me to quote from the Sunday February 13 edition.

Intelligence agencies prodded by the White House, have declassified information, which in turn has been briefed to Congress, shared with reporters and discussed by Pentagon and State Department spokesman. But the disclosures are complicated by history. Before the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Bush Administration released intelligence that officials said justified pre-emptive action, including purported intercepts of Iraqi military conversations, photos of mobile biological weapons labs and statements accusing Baghdad of building a fleet of drones to launch a chemical attack on the United States. The material was all wrong, reliant on sources who lied, incorrect interpretations of Iraq’s actions and senior officials who looked at raw intelligence and saw what they wanted to see.

The Times goes on to point out that this time its different because we have such things as satellite imagery, and so on and so forth. If you count the 15 years we were involved in Vietnam, then Desert Storm with the intervening 10 years of no-fly zone enforcement with the 18 years in Afghanistan we have been at war for something like 45 years and as the times points out it was based for the most part on a pack of lies.

Background of the Russia-Ukraine dispute

I won’t go into the complete history of this dispute except to say that the Reagan- Gorbachev agreement that ended the cold war and broke apart the Soviet Union pledged that NATO would not expand into the border regions of Russia. That agreement was not honored and in 2008 NATO invited Ukraine, but it declined. That was something Mr. Putin could not accept and now he is pushing back.

The problem is that Ukraine’s location on Russia’s border makes it an existential threat to Russia. Estonia in the North and Ukraine in the south have Moscow surrounded. Hitler had to cross a thousand-mile frontier with a supply line 2500 miles long to get to Moscow, but the Ukrainian border is only 300 miles from Moscow. Putin can’t and won’t tolerate Ukraine in NATO or even a western dominated Ukraine. Would we tolerate a Russian dominated Mexico with Russian troops and missiles there?

Will Putin invade Ukraine thus possibly triggering the fall of dominos similar to the start of World War l? European leaders have been working feverishly and diplomatically to prevent it from happening but there are ominous signs. Emanuel Macron French President, and Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor, both went to Moscow to meet with Putin on separate missions. Both stopped first in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy, who seems in favor of toning down the threatening rhetoric coming from Washington.

Mutual dependencies – who depends on whom?

President Biden told Putin publicly that if he invades Ukraine, he can kiss The Nord Stream Pipeline goodbye. That seems a little arrogant to me since the Nord Stream pipeline runs from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany. It obviously has nothing to do with the United States, but the statement seems to be one of I’m in charge here and when I say shut it down, they will. Russia is dependent on selling gas and petroleum to Europe for 50% of its GDP. Europe and especially Germany are totally dependent on Russia for the gas to heat their homes in Winter. Nord Stream would make the gas cheaper which is important since Germany has the highest energy prices in Europe. It explains why the Europeans are nervous and going to Putin with their hats in their hands.

It appears that the Biden Administration would rather Europe not be dependent on Russia. That keeps America in solid control of NATO and still the senior member of the EU. That’s an exaggeration but not by much. I get the impression that the Europeans would like to change that, but if they did, they would go their own way defensively as well. In fact, this controversy has had the opposite effect from what Putin wanted and expected at least in some ways. If he intended to weaken NATO and drive a wedge between NATO and the United States thus dividing the Western Alliance, he has failed.

Troop strengths on both sides

NATO has gotten stronger and almost all the countries are beefing up their own defensive capabilities. The Europeans have joined the United States in sending some of their best troops into the conflict zone. The US 82^nd Airborne division is there now, and The New York Times published a picture of national guardsmen called to active duty and dispatched to Ukraine. Once again protecting the Ukrainian border from Russians, but not the United States border from invaders.

Why would Russia risk war? Over Biden’s provocation …

Will he do it? Will Vladimir Putin give the order and send hundreds of Russian tanks rolling across the Ukrainian frontier? For much of this controversy I have been of the opinion that he would not, and it was much ado about nothing and a way to deflect attention from the economic numbers. Sometimes it seemed to me as if Biden was trying to provoke or goad Putin into the attack. Why would he do that? To deflect attention as I said and to bolster public support with the midterm elections coming up. The most likely reason would be because if an agreement could be reached between Europe and Russia, which respected Russian security and joined the two regions in mutual economic cooperation, and everyone stood down from constant vigilance then there would be no need for the United States in the deal.

There would be no need for 60 thousand American troops in Germany, let alone in Eastern Europe. There would be no need for American troops and missile bases in Romania and Poland. In fact there would be no need for NATO. Everyone could live long and prosper but is that just a pipe dream? Yes, I’m afraid so because it seems that the borderline countries are all buying into the “intelligence” or propaganda if you will. Even Finland and Sweden are having talks about joining NATO.

… and the new Sino-Russian pact

The other reason I have come to believe that Russia just may do it is the we’ve got your back deal that Putin just made with China. I quote from a recent statement by the Chinese defense minister:

Standing in the face of frantic U.S. containment and pressure, China and Russia are united together like a great mountain. Our friendship is unbreakable. Together, we countered the Hegemony of the U.S. and we oppose the fake democratic regime of the U.S., the fake multi-culturalism, as well as new forms of manifestation of the cold war.

I am a subscriber to the Center For Security Policy which is run by Frank Gaffney, who is about as knowledgeable as they come on Russian and Chinese affairs. Mr. Gaffney believes that two factors influence Putin’s decision. The United States through Biden’s remark that there is not much we can do, and by pulling civilians out of Ukraine has signaled that Ukraine is on its own. The second factor is the decisive one and that is China. He believes that Putin and the Chinese have a deal to allow China to gain maximum glory and prestige from the Winter Olympics and once that is over Russia is cleared to go.

Olympic closing: is that D-Day?

The closing ceremonies are Sunday on the U.S. calendar so next week would be a pretty good guess. Putin could launch an attack that is short of an all-out military invasion through a combination of many different attacks. Paramilitary, cyberwarfare and psychological warfare or what Putin calls hybrid warfare in order to intimidate and force Ukraine’s submission to Russian domination.

It seems that the neo cons and chicken hawk liberals will not allow peace to happen. This war, this splitting of Europe this constant attempt to intimidate a man who can’t be intimidated is unnecessary. The failure of the United States to split the China and Russia alliance and make peace with Russia was a great international disaster. Now, as a result, after the Olympics we are facing conflict on at least two fronts as China tries to pick off Taiwan while Russia goes for Ukraine. Perhaps North Korea and Iran will join in the fun.

But what does Putin want?

In conclusion: What does Putin really want? He has moved troops to the border, but not just infantry. The deployment includes armor, artillery, and special forces. The troops are the equivalent to 10 divisions equal to a U.S. Corps. He wants a promise, in writing, that Ukraine will not join NATO, no NATO troops will be stationed in Russia’s border regions, the Ukrainian government will remain neutral, and full operation of Nord Stream will be allowed. That pipeline would give Russia the ability to turn off Europe’s heat with the turn of a wheel, so NATO is effectively neutralized. The cost of fuel goes up for everyone including the U.S. thanks to Biden making us energy dependent again. Those are, at least, the things Putin says he wants.

How to avert war

Finally, folks, will he do it? Only he knows for sure, but we should know something after Sunday. My own view is that this is economic. Biden has made it clear that he will not militarily defend Ukraine, but he will destroy Russia’s financial system if he can. Russia produces 10% of the world’s oil and gas and over 50% of Europe’s. Sanctions on Russian oil and gas are politically impossible because to shut off 10% of the world’s supply would cause runaway inflation and Europe would be left freezing. For those reasons, further sanctions are an empty threat. My best guess is that some way will be found to give Putin what he wants without humiliating Joe Biden, but time will tell.

At least that’s the way I see it.

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle.

From castlereport.us, appearing here by permission.