Poll shows large number of Americans believe civil war is ‘somewhat likely’ in the next decade

A new YouGov America/The Economist poll published this week showed over 40 percent of Americans believe a civil war is “somewhat likely” in the United States within the next decade.

As the November midterms draw nearer and political division clouds the races, American voters appear increasingly concerned that the sharply split public opinion could lead to trouble. The poll showed 43 percent of respondents believe a civil war could break out in the United States in the next ten years.

Party affiliation plays a strong role in whether an individual believes civil war is brewing, with 70 percent of Republicans agreeing and only 30 percent of Democrats. An additional 14 percent of respondents said they believed civil war would “very likely” occur. 

The poll showed Americans believe the country has become more politically divided since the beginning of 2021, and that they believe the divide will continue to increase in the coming years. Broken down by party, 79 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of Democrats agree the divide in the US has increased in the last year.

The results of the poll come on the heels of a string of recent policy wins for Democratic President Joe Biden, who has seen his approval rating climb from 37 percent in late July to 42 percent currently, according to FiveThirtyEight.

While poll respondents may believe a civil war is possible, experts say it is an unlikely scenario. “Countries with democracies and governments as strong as America’s do not fall into civil war,” said Rachel Kleinfeld from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to The Guardian. “But if our institutions weaken, the story could be different.”