Great Sortation continues

The Great Sortation is definitely continuing, with people moving out of Democrat-controlled (“blue”) States and into Republican-controlled (“red”) States. Recent Census Bureau data now confirm the trend – and show the South gaining more population than any other region. The population shift, if it continues at present rates, could flip 13 Congressional seats from blue States to red States. This might not necessarily translate to Republican gains in the House. But it will definitely affect the Electoral College, and inspire louder screams for abolition of that body.

Latest population trends

The U.S. Census Bureau released new population snapshots and trends two days ago (December 19). According to the Bureau, the United States as a whole gained 1.6 million people, a 0.5% increase. That increase results from immigration, fewer deaths, and possibly new births. But the South and West (other than the West Coast) gained the most, while the Northeast lost people.

Of the ten most populous States, California, New York Pennsylvania, and Illinois continued to lose people. Ohio and Michigan reversed their losses from earlier in the decade, to gain people last year. Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina all continued to gain people.

Politico reported yesterday that domestic migration, not international immigration or new birth, drove population gains in the South.

The American Redistricting Project has a map that tells what this means for the House of Representatives. If these trends continue, California and New York will lose four and three seats, respectively. Texas and Florida will pick up four and three seats. Illinois will lose two, and Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island will lose one each. Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Georgia will pick up one seat each.

Likely effects on representation

Of the States standing to lose seats, New York, Illinois, Oregon, and Rhode Island are under full Democratic control. California’s districts are in the hands of an independent commission. Minnesota and Pennsylvania have split legislatures. Of the gainers, Idaho and Arizona have independent commissions; the rest are under full Republican control.

Just as happened after the 2020 Census, the “blue States” (except maybe California) will insist that Republicans lose every seat each State loses. Then again, the red States will likely see Republicans gaining all the new seats. (Arizona is “purple.”) So the worst-casev scenario will see 13 Republican seats transfer from blue States to red States. Membership of the House Party Conferences will not change. (Exception: Oregon’s legislature will be hard-pressed to take away the one remaining Republican seat. That seat now represents Oregon East of the Cascades, whose people are pressing to join with Idaho.)

But the Republicans likely to succeed the ousted Republicans in “blue” States will more likely be “real” or “Trump” Republicans. Republicans in “blue” States are more likely to be RINOs, inclined to “go along to get along.”

More to the point, this will shift thirteen electoral votes from blue States to red States. That one fact will likely alarm the Democrats and the globalists. Donald J. Trump will not, of course, be re-eligible by then (if he lives that long). But other Republicans who share his philosophy are more likely to be elected President.

What that means for the Great Sortation

Texas and California both have active secession movements, though the Texas Nationalist Movement is more active than “Calexit.” Texas will likely have an active secession question on the Republican primary ballot next year. California’s international secession movement has been silent of late. But the “New California” movement is still active, trying to create a “New California” east of the San Andreas Fault. North of California, Oregon East of the Cascades has been trying to move the Idaho border west of the Snake River, to encompass it within a “Greater Idaho.”

The prospect of more conservative control of the United States will probably dampen the Texas Independence movement. Conservative Texans might reason: why secede and throw away a greater say in Presidential elections? Greater Idaho might be more likely to get Congressional consent, because the feared shift in Congressional and Electoral College representation will likely happen with or without a shift in the border.

But interstate secession movements might spring up elsewhere. People in “blue” States, if they’re not moving out-of-State entirely, are moving into “red” counties in those States. People moving into “red” States are not moving into those States’ big cities. They are instead moving into “red” counties, mostly rural. This rural-urban divide will see increased tensions in the “blue” States. If they can’t secede, the people of those counties might elect more “Constitutional sheriffs” likely to nullify gun-control and similarly obstreperous laws.

The Great Sortation moving forward

These changes are continuing the trend CNAV noted at the beginning of the year. Back then, CNAV predicted that blue States would lose House representation and Presidential electoral votes. The latest Census data vindicate that prediction.

Ironically, the Democrats will only accelerate the trend by their policy prescriptions. Their insistence on gun-control and LGBTQIA+-friendly policies will accelerate domestic migration. (The latter will also negatively affect the natural-change difference between births and deaths.) And their promotion of abortion on demand for any reason or no reason will ensure net negative natural change. CNAV predicted that, too, and again the Census data vindicate this. The only red-to-blue migration will be of women 18-29 who want their “right” to abortion. And they won’t reproduce, because they don’t want to.

Of course the Democrats came up with a plan: ensure international immigration, preferentially by panhandlers. But now their own mayors and governors are abandoning that plan. (One who is not – the Mayor of Chicago – is hearing from his own people, and it is not pleasant.)

Result: the “blue” States will continue to lose people. The women who do not move out, will have fewer than the 2.1 children per woman needed to replace people who die. In a generation or two, those States might flip – permanently. The conservatives who remain, will have most of the children. And eventually, they will vote – and will be around to vote.