What Happens in New Hampshire Won’t Stay in New Hampshire

The prevailing narrative emerging from Iowa was that Donald Trump has an iron-fisted grip on the Republican Party, that he’s destined to be the 2024 nominee, and that Americans will get the inevitable rematch between Trump and Joe Biden they say they do not want. I have a three word reaction:

Not so fast.

You see, I’m a proud Granite State voter and have spent significant time with most of the GOP presidential candidates. Heck, most have been in my living room to make their pitch to family, friends, neighbors, and colleagues. One thing I’ve picked up from these interactions is crystal clear: There is a strong appetite for change, a desire to move forward rather than looking in the rear-view mirror, and an increasing urgency to this effort.

New Hampshire is a fiercely independent state. We think for ourselves. We don’t follow public opinion and we’re definitely not going to do something because the hearty folks in Iowa made a statement.

There’s a familiar old joke about the New Hampshire voter who is asked if they’re going to vote for a particular presidential hopeful. The punch line is “I don’t know yet, I’ve only met the candidate four times.”

In other words, in New Hampshire, we take retail politics very seriously. And by that I don’t mean campaign events in shopping destinations. We also listen to anyone who expresses interest in seeking the office. Don’t believe me? Take a peek at the sample ballots on the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s website. The citizens of the Granite State view our evaluation of presidential candidates as a solemn responsibility to the nation. And we do so on both sides of the aisle.

The culmination of this effort is the first-in-the-nation presidential primary which takes place next Tuesday, Jan. 23. While polls have long had former President Donald Trump leading the pack, the field has narrowed considerably. This means that the dynamics of the New Hampshire primary are not certain or set. At this point, it appears to be a two-person race between Trump and former South Carolina governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. And don’t dismiss the 2024 Democratic New Hampshire primary; it’s still going on, even if President Biden isn’t on the ballot.

The single most important question that will impact the outcome of the primary is “Will independents show up?” A follow-up question would be “Which primary will they choose to vote in”?

Partisan identification in New Hampshire is roughly 30% Democrat, 30% registered Republican, and 40% independent (or as we refer to them here, “undeclared”). This matters because undeclared candidates can vote in a Republican primary. Given Trump’s popularity with the Republican base, Haley’s path likely runs through voters who are undeclared.

Given expectations, even a slim Haley victory would be a significant development. Also, a poor showing for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, which the polls suggest is all but inevitable, obviously won’t help his campaign. And if it is a Trump win, the question will be: “By how much?”

All of this will affect the field of competitors going forward. Another question will be about the Democratic Party primary and how Biden’s write-in campaign fares. A strong showing by the only serious Democratic challenger, Minnesota congressman Dean Philips, might alter the national narrative – and the Democrats’ commitment to the incumbent president. These questions matter because the outcome of the New Hampshire race has the potential to change the outcome of the November election and the future of the United States.

To say that Granite Staters punch above their weight is an understatement. Nevada’s tourist industry is fond of its puckish mantra “What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas.” Well, here in New Hampshire, we’re confident that what happens in the Granite State does not stay within our borders and has a positive impact on the rest of the country.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.