Could Trump Unlock Longer-term Republican Presidential Success?

If Trump wins the White House in November, when will Republicans leave it? Just because Trump is limited to one more term doesn’t mean that Republicans are. America’s presidential past, Biden’s mistakes in office, and a continuity of conservative populism without Trump’s baggage could trigger Republican presidential success beyond 2024. Viewed in its broader potential, a Trump victory in November may not be Democrats’ biggest worry.

Democrats might not be worried enough

Signs of Democrats’ anxiety abound. Democrats have been concerned about Biden’s polling numbers for some time. In January, Gallup reported Biden’s approval rating was the “lowest in the past six decades of reelection years,” while recently, political strategist James Carville said Biden’s poll numbers are like “walking in on your grandma naked.” On April 28, Real Clear Politics showed that Biden’s current job approval rating (40.1%) is lower than Trump’s (44.9%), Obama’s (48%), or George W. Bush’s (48.8%) at the same point in their presidencies. Liberals looking ahead to Trump potentially winning in November have called on Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor to resign so that Biden could replace her now.

While Democrats’ concerns are well-founded, they may be underestimated. Should Trump win, Republicans’ potential for retaining the White House beyond 2028 may be higher still.

While Trump is constitutionally blocked from seeking another term as president should he win in November, other Republicans are not. Instead, it would seem to be American presidential history that argues against another Republican following Trump into the White House in 2028; only four times in the last century have candidates of the same party won consecutive elections.

This time it’s different

So, why is the consecutive president precedent not as persuasive in the event Trump wins in 2024? There are several reasons.

First, the previous episodes have usually involved more than two full terms. In 1923, Coolidge finished the remainder of Harding’s term, was then elected to his own in 1924, and Hoover was elected in 1928. From 1932 to 1948, FDR and Truman were elected a combined five times. From 1980 to 1992, Reagan and Bush I were elected three times. Only JFK and LBJ were elected and served the eight years of two consecutive terms. If Trump wins in November, another Republican in 2028 would be running, looking to extend the party’s streak over just eight years – as LBJ was in 1964 – not more than eight years as occurred in the other three episodes.

Trump might be divisive, but he still came within a hair of winning

But wouldn’t 2028 be a referendum on Trump’s legacy, and isn’t that one of divisiveness? Yes, and yes: the party that holds the White House is held accountable for its time in it, and Trump is unquestionably a polarizing figure. However, despite a pandemic, mass lockdowns, a resulting economic freefall, and massive civil unrest in the wake of George Floyd’s May 2020 death, Trump nearly won reelection in 2020. Although the popular vote margin was 4.5%, the all-important electoral vote was decided by six states and a few tens of thousands of votes spread across them: 77,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin would have reelected Trump. A compelling argument could be made that without just one of 2020’s headline events – let alone all of them – that Trump and his legacy would have won in 2020.

Also, the Trump legacy in 2028 will likely look decidedly better than it did in 2020. This is not only due to the absence of 2020’s catastrophes but also because it will be juxtaposed with Biden’s legacy. There is a reason why Gallup found Biden’s reelection job approval rating the lowest of the last 60 years: according to RCP on April 28, Biden’s approval rating on several top issues – the economy (39.5%), foreign policy (35.3%), immigration (32.2%), inflation (34%), and crime (38.4%) – are all below his low overall 40.1% job approval. Simply not being Biden and governing as Biden has could be a big boost for Trump.

Another Republican might even look better than Trump

Similarly, another Republican candidate in 2028 would look comparatively better than Trump to a large portion of America. According to RCP’s April 28 average of national polling, Trump’s unfavorable rating was 54.2% (only slightly better than Biden’s 55.7%). If Republicans nominated a candidate in 2028 who promised policy continuity but without Trump’s personal baggage, this could be a decided political plus – and help to cement the political inroads that Trump looks to be making into minority constituencies today.

Another Republican candidate in 2028 would also avoid the second-term slump that usually follows elected incumbents who win reelection – making the party’s chances better than they would be with a divisive incumbent atop the ticket. And such a candidate, if elected in 2028, would have the potential to tap into America’s proclivity to reelect incumbent presidents – since Taft in 1912, only four elected incumbents who sought reelection have lost.

Considering the advantages that Republicans could leverage if Trump were to win again, Democrats are right to be worried. If anything, Democrats probably should be more worried than they are.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.