Will a Crime Wave in this PA City Shape the Election Outcome?

Scranton, the Electric City and boyhood home of President Joe Biden, will likely figure in the political headlines throughout the 2024 election season. That’s largely because it’s located in Northeastern Pennsylvania – one of the swingiest areas of arguably the most important swing state. The city received visits from both major party candidates during the 2020 campaign and has already seen a two-day presidential visit in 2024.

Violent crime in Scranton

A prominent issue for Scranton and its surrounding communities is violent crime. During the first five months of 2024, the city recorded five homicides, far exceeding any annual total in recent memory. During all of 2023, Scranton saw three homicides, and in the years prior, it recorded one to two homicides per year. It wasn’t uncommon for the city to see zero homicides in a year, as it did in 2019.

Scranton residents are not used to this type of carnage so close to home. In March, a young man, Jose Miguel Tatis-Camilo, was shot during an armed robbery of a gas station convenience store; he died a few days later. He was in the wrong place at the wrong time. A few days later, a man was killed in his home during a drug-related robbery. In April, a gang-related beating and shooting took place near a city park that resulted in one dead. Later in April, in a dispute between two siblings, a man took his brother’s life. Finally, in May, an unresponsive male was found in a car; he had been shot following a drug deal gone bad.

Car theft, escalated domestic violence

Other acts of violence have also unnerved Scrantonians. Car theft has been rampant; one resident was carjacked at gunpoint. The year 2024 got off to a horrible start when Scranton Police Detective Kyle Gilmartin was shot twice in the head during a police investigation of gang-related shootings early on a January morning. Miraculously, the detective survived. Later that month, a juvenile was detained outside of Scranton High School with a firearm; he had planned to shoot a rival gang member. In April, attendees at a Scranton Preparatory School lacrosse game had to be escorted to their vehicles by police following gunshots nearby. In June, Scranton police and S.W.A.T. team members faced gunfire when responding to a domestic incident.

Scranton residents are wondering when the lawlessness will end. County commissioners recently approved sectioning off a wing of the county jail to hold juveniles since there is no more space at juvenile detention facilities.

The crime wave has been eye-opening for many longtime Scranton residents. Until recently, gang issues and shootings were not a concern for most. It’s true that many areas across the United States have seen an uptick in crime since the pandemic, and it is also true that many other small to midsize cities would be envious of Scranton’s relative safety, even now. That’s little consolation, though, for residents now fearful to walk around their own neighborhoods.

Voters nationally trust Republicans to handle crime

It remains to be seen if crime concerns will have an impact on the electorate. National polls consistently show that voters trust Republicans, often by wide margins, to handle crime. Most Scranton area Democrats, who have controlled city and county government for decades, take a more tough on crime and pro-police stance than many of their vocal, far-left counterparts in other areas of the country.

The Scranton area may be critical in races that decide the balance of power in Congress. Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey is, like Biden, a Scranton native. He faces a tough battle for reelection against Republican Dave McCormick.

The area is also home to one of the most competitive U.S. House races, where newcomer Rob Bresnahan is running against longtime Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright. Scranton and its surrounding communities are key to Cartwright’s reelection chances. If the general election results in the Scranton area are a few shades of blue lighter than normal in this traditionally Democratic area, it may be enough to put Bresnahan over the top, since the rest of the district is more friendly to the Republican.

A Scranton paper tries to pretend otherwise

The crime concerns could even have an impact on a critical statehouse race. Currently, Democrats hold a one-seat advantage in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The 118th District is one of the top seats Republicans are looking to flip. The 118^th, represented by Rep. Jim Haddock, does not include Scranton but does include towns that directly border it. It’s easy to imagine voters there being concerned about violence spilling over into their communities.

The editorial board at one local newspaper isn’t having any of this, though. In its May 26, 2024, edition, the paper urged readers: “Don’t buy the rhetoric; crime is down across the board.” The editorial declares that public concerns about crime are “overblown,” magnified by “partisan rhetoric.” The paper assures Scrantonians that “our neighborhoods are safer than they have been in more than a decade.”

Come November, we’ll find out whether the paper or the public is right about crime in Scranton. And that verdict may well have ramifications beyond Pennsylvania’s sixth-largest city.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.