Do Americans Prefer Equalizing Outcome or Opportunity in 2024?

The American Dream was built on a promise of equality – a promise of equality in terms of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. During the 2024 election, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are both working overtime to say why Republicans or Democrats are better on the equality issue.

Equality of outcome or opportunity

But what kind of equality? Harris is known for promoting “equity,” while Trump is quick to invoke the American Dream but slower to define it. And so, voters are left wondering.

Many of the policies uttered on the campaign trail are focused on equalizing outcomes – or, at the very least, equalizing starting points. To use a Harris quote, “Equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.” She also proposes an opportunity agenda, promising to crack down on price gouging, raise the minimum wage, provide $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, and increase the child tax credit, among other proposals. Pushback has been swift among economists and policy researchers, who cite the unintended consequences of price controls and other forms of government overreach.

Meanwhile, Trump insists on continuing his tariff policy and expanding the child tax credit. Cue similar pushback: In his case, the vast majority of economists and other experts agree about the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth.

In the end, what do American voters actually want? The candidate who is most likely to win come November is the candidate who is more adept at selling equality as most Americans actually see it.

Most Americans indeed prefer equal opportunity

In a recent survey on the American Dream conducted with NORC at the University of Chicago, we put the question to the test. We asked people if they think equality means equality before the law and having a fair chance to pursue opportunities regardless of where they started (equality to opportunity), if equality means that everyone starts in the same with people given tools to help them catch up with others (equalizing starting points), or if equality just means people ending up in the same place like candidate Harris has said.

Not surprisingly, Americans don’t believe that equality means everyone ending in the same place. Only 4% of U.S. adults say so, while equalizing people’s starting points only garnered 18% of the respondent vote.

On the other hand, nearly two-thirds of Americans claim equality is actually about the equality of opportunity. This holds true across age, income level, education, and even political leanings. Democrats and Republicans generally agree that proper policymaking is predicated upon support for equality of opportunity.

The best proposals favor the free market

While many of today’s policy proposals point to a shift toward economic security rather than dynamism, favoring ideas like a universal basic income, our best bet for long-term opportunity and prosperity still rests in the entrepreneurship and innovation that define the free market – not government assistance. When we asked people about the best vehicle to climb the income ladder, their answer was resoundingly that employment – a job, not a government assistance program or even education – was the most important way to experience upward mobility. When people were asked about the most important precondition for greater social mobility and opportunity, they responded with a strong labor market or economic growth.

Government assistance and even income inequality reduction are simply not top priorities for Americans. People (still) want economic dynamism above all else.

Bringing the rich down will not go as far as focusing on removing barriers for everyone to climb and creating a more dynamic economy. Trump, Harris, and other candidates would be wise to acknowledge the many barriers to dynamism that exist, such as a lack of opportunity in education or excessive occupational licensing that makes it difficult for entrepreneurs and other employees to work.

The people know what is right

Disparities in outcomes don’t necessarily mean that we need to bring one group down or prop another group up. And Americans certainly don’t need more economic security that will entrench those results in the long run.

The American Dream rests on two foundational pillars: Equality of opportunity and economic dynamism. They are how we became a land of opportunity for all. At a time when more people are pessimistic than before but continue to believe in the power of job creation and economic growth, we need better presidential politics leading the way.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.