Trump expanding the map

While Kamala Harris has run a defensive campaign, Donald Trump has run an offensive one. Yesterday he included, in a whirlwind tour of the American Southeast, a rally in Salem, Virginia. He now has a number of conservative elected officials suggesting that he could carry Virginia – and New York. Some grassroots activists have their doubts – but unsuspected numbers might be present after all.

The Trump Virginia gambit

Trump has largely avoided Virginia up to now, but yesterday at 4:00 p.m. he did address a sellout crowd in Salem, Virginia. Retired Captain Hung Cao USN joined him, which made part of his triple purpose in rallying in Virginia. He wants to recapture the Senate, and Capt. Cao, running to replace Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.), could help. Already he has forced the Harris campaign to stop buying ads in North Carolina and Nevada, to buy them in Virginia instead.

But the same admittedly “black-pilled” activist who doubts Trump could ever take Virginia, pointed out two things about Salem. Salem lies along Interstate Highway 81, which runs from south central Pennsylvania to join Interstate Highway 40 near Knoxville, Tennessee. It lies among several key cities of Blacksburg, Roanoke, and Staunton. This region, despite voting reliably Republican, is notorious for voter apathy. Trump, “The Turnout Machine,” is trying to turn those voters out.

At the rally, Trump expressed high confidence that he will carry Virginia after all.

We are going to win Virginia, you know that. We gotta get out and vote. And outside you have exactly five times the number of people, so you are gonna win this. We are gonna win this on Tuesday. Donald Trump at Salem, Virginia

Republicans have another reason for optimism. Virginia’s Republican administration just won a court battle to keep 1600 noncitizens off its voter rolls for this election.

Changing dynamics in Virginia

The Democrats’ winning streak in Virginia dates back only to 2008, when Barack Obama carried it. Even so, a Republican won the governorship in 2009. Biden’s carrying Virginia by nearly ten points is a statistical outlier. That prompted Mike Lindell to suspect election fraud, even though everyone expected the final result.

For these and other reasons, Virginia is a silent battleground. To retort, “But Fredericksburg!” “But Spotsy [Spotsylvania County]!” and “But NoVa [Northern Virginia]!” is too facile. True, federal employees have always voted for the party of government expansion, which is the Democratic Party. But Republicans in Virginia have already tapped an important resource: low-propensity voters, some of whom were inactive. If Democratic operatives somehow manipulated the voter rolls, to “activate” inactive voters, vote in their names without their knowledge, then “deactivate” them afterward (as former State Sen. Amanda Chase, R-Chesterfield, suspects) – they can’t do that this year. The reason? Republicans reached them and encouraged them to reactivate themselves and vote in their own names.

Salem lies in Virginia’s Ninth Congressional district. This Republican district would be the last to flip if by some dark chant Virginia turned into another Massachusetts. So rallying there would be a way to draw a loving crowd. But suppose that district is also home to yet another group of inactive voters waiting to reactivate? Then they might flood their precincts with provisional ballots that could flip the State on Wednesday, when Boards of Elections typically meet to adjudicate provisional ballots.

And in New York…

In April, a judge forced Trump to cool his heels in New York. That was a nearly unforced error on the part of the Democratic Machine and Regime. Trump started to mingle among the people of New York, and people discovered what a warm, personable man he is. That led to the first speculation that Trump might carry New York. Nor has he stopped mingling with the people. Recently he walked into a black-owned-and-operated barbershop in Brooklyn, just to shoot the breeze.

His Madison Square Garden appearance was a tour de force, as everyone recognizes. That’s why Democrats insist on comparing it to an American Nazi rally that actually took place there in 1939. If Democrats didn’t actually fear that Trump might flip New York, or at least flip a few House seats, they wouldn’t say such things. Instead they’d blow it off.

Nobody blows off Trump. As Mike LaChance said late last night, New York politicians are getting desperate. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-N.Y.) actually said anyone voting Republican was “anti-woman and anti-American.”

The New York Post explains that their fear is about flipping those House seats. And no wonder! Three New York Republicans were all over Gov. Hochul’s remarks:

Quite the closing message from the so called campaign of joy: If you don’t vote Democrat, you are Nazi, Hitler loving, anti-American garbage. Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.)

Kathy Hochul is an embarrassment to our state — completely incoherent and incapable of leading. Attacking New Yorkers who support President Trump as un-American? She previously told New Yorkers who didn’t agree with her to move to Florida. I’m shocked her favorables are so low. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.)

(By the way: Hochul did tell Trump, Zeldin, and Duchess County Executive Marc Molinaro to move to Florida.)

NEW YORK IS IN PLAY! President Trump is polling ahead in New York swing districts where Joe Biden won by 15 points in some cases. I urge all New Yorkers to get out and vote early in-person to elect all of our incredible New York Republican candidates on your ballot! Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)

Rep. Stefanik linked to this article in Brandon Gills’ DC Enquirer, which carried excerpts from her interview with Maria Bartiromo:

New York has decayed under the weaponization of Alvin Bragg, [Letisha] James and the horrible leadership of [Governor] Kathy Hochul. You have the crime crisis, the illegal migrant crisis right here, so it is the epicenter of just the far-left radical failed Democrat policies and President Trump has earned historic support. Do you know in every single swing congressional district, Maria, President Trump is winning. These are districts that Joe Biden won by 15 points in some cases in 2020, President Trump is now polling ahead, which is why the telephone rally he did the night before to a million voters across key congressional districts in New York, he knows that the House majority will run right through New York, but this is a growing Republican Party, a historic Republican Party in support of President Trump.

Trump looking good

Losers spend their time defending what they have and wind up ceding territory to the winners – as Harris has done. Winners carry the war to the enemy. Sometimes they accomplish nothing more than diversionary actions that cause the enemy to redeploy assets in critical ways. If that’s all Trump has done, then it might have netted him two States – North Carolina and Nevada – from which Harris has withdrawn. And sometimes winners can capture territory no one expected them to capture. Carrying New York and Virginia would almost guarantee Trump’s reelection.

But Trump has two other objectives besides enough Electoral College votes. He wants to strengthen the Republican majority in the house, and “flip” the Senate. Supporting as many Republican Senate candidates as he can, is part of that strategy. That’s another reason to hold a rally in Virginia, where a Senator (and first-class political hack) is up for reelection. Rallying in New York is about capturing more House districts; neither of New York’s two Senators is up for reelection.

All this is what “enlarging the map” looks like. Trump is enlarging the map; Harris is trying to protect the map. That’s what makes Trump look like a winner.