No, Diversity Is Not the Death of the Republican Party

It was just after Mitt Romney’s 2012 defeat at the hands of Barack Obama when political pundits across mainstream media were already declaring the death of the Republican Party as a consequence of the changing demographics shaping the country. Just 24 years prior, George H.W. Bush had won a resounding landslide over  Massachusetts Gov. Mike Dukakis. Despite winning white America by a greater percentage than Bush, Romney was soundly defeated.

The Republican Party adapted to diversity

The difference? White voters made up just 72% of the electorate, a 13-point drop from 1988. Both Bush and Romney had performed similarly among Hispanic voters, winning roughly 30% of their support. However, there were now more than three times as many Hispanics voting in presidential elections than there had been in 1988.

In the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election, pollster John Zogby predicted that the changing demographics in America would be the death of the Republican Party, leading to a resounding Clinton victory.

Of course, like many, his prediction could not have been more wrong. But he was not the only mainstream media pundit to write the Republican party’s obituary. Longtime GOP consultant Stuart Stevens, having worked with the likes of George Bush and Mitt Romney, came out with a book in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election declaring that the Republican Party’s inability to adapt to an ever-changing America would be its demise.

Former Republican congressional staffer and writer for The Atlantic, Tom Nichols took things a step further, stating that “[w]e all loved Old Yeller, but at some point, you have to take Old Yeller behind the barn and put him down.”

The magnitude of Trump’s victories

Obviously, these prognostications could not have been more inaccurate following President Trump’s historic victory. After Biden won the Hispanic vote by 33 points in 2020, Harris carried this voting block by just 5 points in 2024; all the while, support for Trump among white voters decreased. Presidential Trump won because of the country’s changing demographics rather than in spite of it.

When looking at the seven competitive swing states that all went Republican in 2024, the states with the highest percentage of Hispanic voters – Arizona and Nevada – swung the most toward Trump since 2020. In Arizona, Trump only lost the Hispanic vote by 10 points as compared to 2020, when Biden carried Hispanics by 24 points. In Nevada, Trump actually won the Hispanic vote – a staggering 27-point swing from 2020.

After the Republican’s disastrous performance in the 2012 elections, many in the party suggested that the GOP needed to move to the left on the issue of immigration. Republican senators even worked with Democrats in crafting a comprehensive immigration reform package that would have given amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants. President Trump, on the other hand, took a different approach, promising mass deportations and a giant wall on the southern border to keep out those trying to enter the country illegally.

Non-white does not mean contemptuous of the law

As it turns out, Hispanic voters want a president who will enforce the rule of law and not reward those who cut the line. Communities along the Texas-Mexico border saw the starkest shift from Democrat to Republican. President Trump carried Latinos in Texas by double-digits – despite losing by large margins in 2016 and 2020. From 2016 to 2024, 13 counties in South Texas flipped from Democrat to Republican. Take Starr County, the most Hispanic county in America, that previously had not voted Republican at the Presidential level since 1892.

After voting overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton in 2016, the county shifted 76 points towards Republicans and supported President Trump in 2024. While some in the media would like to blame racism and sexism for this shift, the answer is quite simple: The record number of illegal border crossings that have taken place over the past four years under President Biden has wreaked havoc on border communities whose demographics lean overwhelmingly Latino. Hispanic Americans who otherwise have consistently supported the Democratic Party sent a clear message that enough is enough and voted for secure borders and the rule of law.

The Republican Party captures more demographics

And it is not just Hispanics along the border that are voting Republican. In Florida, seven in 10 Cubans voted for Trump as a consequence of Harris’ leftwing economic policies and the influx of wokism taking over the Democratic Party. Even New York City and Los Angeles – two of the most racially diverse cities in the country – shifted toward Trump, likely as a rebuke to the out-of-control crime epidemic.

This election should serve as a blueprint to future Republicans running for office that the best way to win over Hispanic voters is by implementing conservative policy solutions, particularly concerning immigration, crime, and the economy. Now it is up to President Trump to follow through on these campaign promises and restore American greatness in an ever-changing America.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.