Trump Pollster: Tudor Dixon Leads Mike Rogers Among Michigan MAGA Base

New polling from Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio shows Tudor Dixon, the steel executive turned conservative commentator, with an early lead over former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Michigan Republican primary for Senate, RealClearPolitics is first to report.

Trump is the key in Michigan

Neither Republican has yet declared. Both are expected to compete for the seat left wide open by Democratic Sen. Gary Peters who unexpectedly announced that he would not seek reelection in 2026.

The key in Michigan: Donald Trump.

Trump carried the swing state last year, defeating former Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 80,000 votes. Running alongside him for Senate, Rogers lost a close race to Democrat Elissa Slotkin. Republicans must now decide on a new champion to compete for the seat Peters will vacate.

Dixon and Rogers are both viewed favorably by 57% of GOP primary voters, according to a Fabrizio-Lee polling memo obtained by RCP, but Dixon has the edge in favorability, 63% to 59%, with that slice of the electorate who identifies as very conservative. And in a head-to-head race, among those who identify as strongly in support of Trump, she leads him by nine points – 43% to 34%.

Both Republicans are well known among the base. Rogers served in Congress for more than a decade, eventually chairing the powerful House Intelligence Committee, before retiring in 2015 and joining CNN as a commentator. Dixon worked as an executive at Michigan Steel Inc. before mounting an unsuccessful challenge in 2022 with Trump’s endorsement against Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

But voters with firm opinions of both potential candidates prefer Dixon to Rogers by 17 points, 52% to 35%, according to the polling.

Tudor Dixon has the advantage

“While the race between Dixon and Rogers appears close, the base of the GOP electorate’s support for Dixon underscores her advantages in this race,” according to the Fabrizio-Lee memo. “Those furthest to the right and those who are the president’s strongest supporters clearly back Dixon and will be key to winning her the nomination.”

Trump remains undecided as Republicans see a ripe pickup opportunity in Michigan. Democrats are without a frontrunner.

Peters dealt a blow to Democratic hopes of regaining control of the upper chamber when he announced his retirement. Former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who moved his family to Michigan in 2022, was seen as a likely champion waiting in the wings. Politico reported Thursday that Buttigieg would pass on the race, leaving the door open to another potential presidential bid.

Dixon has argued that the road in Michigan to the Senate runs through the MAGA electorate. “You need a candidate that loves Donald Trump, that is going to bear hug Donald Trump, and that’s been our problem in the past,” she said last month on “The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show,” laying the blame for past GOP defeats at the feet of Republicans who “try to run parallel to him.”

Rogers trying to protect his right flank

Axios reported Wednesday that Rogers had hired Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign co-manager who remains in the president’s inner circle, a sign that the Michigan Republican is trying to shore up his right flank and align with the MAGA movement.

The president appeared close to endorsing Rogers behind closed doors, telling Senate Republicans at Mar-a-Lago last month that “he might be the one.” Trump qualified, however, that he was talking “to Michael and some of the others.”

This includes Dixon, who was a regular presence for him on the campaign trail. She appeared alongside MAGA heavyweights like Alina Habba, Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Interior Secretary Doug Burgum.

We’re going to bring our country back and it starts right here in Michigan with President Donald Trump!

We're going to bring our country back and it starts right here in Michigan with President Donald Trump! pic.twitter.com/9A6Y188lHe— Tudor Dixon (@TudorDixon) September 17, 2024

At a Grand Rapids rally last July, Trump praised Dixon, calling her “a friend of mine who was really brave, who ran a tough race.”

“Her father was in the steel industry,” he added, “got to know them both well. She’s terrific woman.”

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.