Regime change in Iran

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 16^th day of January in the year of our Lord 2026. I will be talking about Iran today and exploring the possibilities for changing the regime there from one run by Islamic fundamentalists to one run by the ex-Shah’s son Reza Pahlavi. What does the US want in Iran and what is it willing to do to have it.

Revolution in Iran might now succeed

Yes, it seems that revolution is in the air once again in Iran, but this time it seems to be different. Every few years people grow weary of the Ayatollah’s strict laws, its moral police, etc. and they take to the streets to protest. This time it seems to be different for several reasons. The protests are much more massive and widespread this time and the people are showing great courage. The last report I saw showed more than 2500 dead and 10,000 arrested. So not just protests, but war in the streets, it seems.

The Iranians don’t waste much time on niceties such as a fair trial either because they arrest a protester one day and publicly hang him the next as a warning to others. Another reason why this time might be different is that the US President is clearly fully supporting the protesters with his words and promises of military action. The primary reason, however, is that this time there are real reasons other that the resistance to fundamentalist Islam. The last large-scale protests happened when a young woman was arrested by the moral police and she ended up raped and murdered in their custody.

Bad people lead Iran

The regime is apparently then made up of very bad people and that is always involved in the unrest. This time, in addition, there is a critical, life threatening nationwide water shortage caused or at least made worse by the regime’s misuse of water facilities, reservoirs, etc. The water shortage is so bad that the capital city of Tehran is threatened with water rationing. For a city of 9 million that would be catastrophic. The final straw in this round of unrest has been the skyrocketing inflation and destruction of the purchasing power of the Iranian rial. The rial has been devalued so much that Iranian reports now express inflation in terms of dollars. It has lost 60% of its value since last June.

So, the regime is bad and the people are courageous. Hundreds killed and thousands arrested which for many is the same thing. The US, through its chief executive, threatens to “hit them very hard.” The US currently has about 2000 troops next door in Iraq and all US bases in the region are on high alert. The US Central Command and certain regional partners have opened a new Middle East Air and Missile Defense command center at the US airbase in Qatar. Reports yesterday said that US troops are now being evacuated in expectation of an Iranian attack.

American moves

If you have any doubt about whether the US considers itself to be responsible for policing the world and making it right in the US President’s eyes those doubts should be erased. When one country has regime change fostered on it quite often it makes a lot of other countries mad and this situation is no different. The US announced a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran and that has made the Chinese very angry, Iran is a key part of China’s multi-trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative and they desperately want the Mullahs to stay in power. So, the US is, in its own eyes, the policeman of the world.

The Iranians seem genuinely disturbed this time unlike all the other times. Their repressive tactics don’t seem to be working as well this time. I guess all the Mossad and CIA agents on the ground in Iran encourage the people to carry on. Reports coming out of Iran are that many in the regime want to talk diplomatically with the US this time to avoid a US attack. Talks were scheduled but when Trump heard that people were being killed and hanged he canceled the talks.

The regime wanted only to preserve power

My opinion is that the regime wanted talks not to diplomatically agree to reforms but to preserve their power. The other problem with talks is that if the US held talks and agreed for the regime to stay in power with US blessing then the US administration would lose its standing. Right now, the people protesting, undoubtedly with Mossad and CIA encouragement, are literally dying and risking their lives to bring about the downfall of the Ayatollah’s rule and they expect the US to refrain from diplomatically supporting it.

We now have about four decades of diplomatic efforts with Iran without any noticeable results except to make the situation worse so I suppose talking to them and sending them money is pointless. It makes sense to me to stop business and encourage our allies to stop business with a regime that commits such human rights abuses as long as it’s universally applied. That’s the problem though isn’t it. The concept of isolating human rights abusers is not universally applied and everyone knows it including the Iranians. It’s hard to stay on the moral high road under such circumstances.

Iran talks tough

Iran, ever the implacable adversary, as usual is talking tough. Would a sensible leader threaten war with an adversary many times stronger when that leader has what appears to be a weakened or destroyed armed forces. The Ayatollah is doing just that but I don’t think he is insane, no, he is living out the Islamic book as he perceives it. It tells him seek death instead of life and wash the cities of the world with blood and constant war until the 12^th Imman, the Mahdi comes and makes the world into what the books tells him it should be and will be.

The supreme leader – a true believer

Rather than insanity he really does literally believe the words in the Islamic Holy Book written almost 1400 years ago. Western leaders don’t understand that because they believe nothing. Religion, whether Christianity or anything else is just a ruse they use to get elected. They really believe nothing and worship only the god of power to which they are utterly addicted.

This man, the Ayatollah, the unbending foe is different. He will pretend to negotiate for a better deal but when his gullible adversaries in the West deliver he will not comply because he believes the words in that book and nothing else matters to him. He warns the US, through his foreign minister, that he is ready for war if Washington wants to test it. I’m sure he is ready and he apparently doesn’t mind how much his people suffer. Why doesn’t he get them some food and especially water. I guess it’s because he doesn’t know how and besides the book doesn’t tell him to do that.

Why won’t he make a deal with the great Satan for water technology and resources? The answer is obvious by the name of his adversary. The foreign minister said if the US wants war like it did before, Iran is ready for it but he hopes the US will choose the wise diplomatic option. The other way leads to criminal war like the abduction of Nichalos Maduro did. He hopes the US will negotiate rather than make war for Israel’s interests.

The head of the Iran royal house

There is a man here in the US who has been very vocal in support of the protesters on social media. That man is Reza Pahlavi, the son of former Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who has been living in exile in the US since the ouster from power of the Shah in 1979 Islamic Revolution. He has been very active with international media appearances as well as social media and the other day he met with Trump’s chief Middle East negotiator, Steve Wittkof. Some of the demonstrators in Tehran shout long live the Shah. My guess is that they are too young to remember what life was really like under the Shah.

Pahlavi, to my knowledge, has not stated his true intentions with respect to Iran. But he is scheduled to travel to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump as well as to deliver a speech at the Jerusalem Prayer Breakfast. Very interesting indeed because that makes me think of the real reason for all this. Who are the American politicians who favor the interests of a foreign country over that of the American people. Just about all of them it seems. Last Tuesday, the US ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, said there is no room in his party for those who do not support regime change wars. He said all should be in on overthrowing the Iranian government allegedly on Israel’s behalf.

What support does Trump have?

There are many polls which show the Ambassador is dead wrong (no pun intended) about that. Polls show that far more Americans support my position of come home and mind your own business rather than the Ambassador’s position of fighting for greater Israel in the Middle East. Did Trump commit an act of war against Iran when he sent stealth bombers a few weeks ago. The real question is not was the attack an act of war but was the attack at the bequest of a foreign leader and if so will that same leader request or demand another attack on Iran this time. My conclusion is that yes, he will do it despite the undeniable fact that the American people are sick of foreign wars that have nothing to do with them but are beneficial to foreign nations and their leaders.

Meanwhile, in Iran the regime has shut down the internet across the country in an effort to prevent people from organizing meetings and protests. Elon Musk has provided his Starlink system and anyone in Iran can access it without charge he says. There are rumors that the Chinese have provided technology to Iran to disable Starlink. Anytime it is so obvious that an entire people group is not free it causes anger and outrage here in America. In response the Iranians have threatened to assassinate President Trump pledging that “this time we will not miss.”

Iran might want to reconsider…

Well, a regime that murders and hangs its own people and which is mired in a water crises and inflation might want to consider a more low-key approach especially when that regime’s past performance against the US air force is considered. For now the ISW reports that protests have been suppressed by security forces but could erupt again at any time so we will see.

Finally, folks, to close this Castle Report here is an interesting quote from Paul Craig Roberts.

The United States is a strange place. Americans pledge their allegiance to the United States of America, but their government pledges allegiance to Israel. President Trump parades around as if he is master of the world, but he is not even master of his own country.

At least that’s the way I see it.

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle.

From CastleReport.us, appears by arrangement – Ed.