How Republicans Can Make DFL Pay for Fraud Scandal

Minnesota Republicans must avoid the shiny celebrity to have a shot at winning the governor’s race.

The fraud scandal, not immigration, will resonate in Minnesota

Over the past few weeks, ICE shootings in Minnesota have dominated the political headlines. The deaths of Renee Good and Alex Pretti have resulted in unrest and a war of words between Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey on one side and the Trump administration on the other. While Republicans at a national level are right to focus on immigration issues, the situation creates unique political cover for Walz and the Democrats. If Republicans want to win the governor’s mansion in 2026, they need to bring the fraud scandal back to the attention of the voters.

Few politicians in America are facing a scandal as serious as Tim Walz is facing with welfare fraud. Over $1 billion was stolen in Minnesota, prompting Walz to create a fraud prevention program, headed by former FBI agent and judge Tim O’Malley. This effort is weak sauce coming from Walz, as this most recent scandal is the latest example of fraud to rattle the state.

Not only is the stolen money a problem, but Walz is troubled by the fact that the scandal leaders were not discovered, nor were they charged, by state officials. The fraud was uncovered, and its ring leaders indicted by the feds. Walz has the double whammy of fraud happening on his watch and not being discovered by those under his leadership.

The fraud has cost Walz his reelction

The depth of the fraud is what drove Walz to announce he was ending his re-election campaign. This announcement saves Democrats from defending Walz’s baggage at the ballot box, but it leaves the party with a demoralizing issue. That is why the ICE operations are a political windfall for state Democrats and Walz in particular. Confronting the Trump administration over ICE allows Walz to create a rally-around-the-flag effect for Minnesota Democrats and the state as a whole. The popularity of Walz plummeted after the fraud scandal. What better way to recover than by publicly fighting with President Trump?

Constitutionally, Walz doesn’t have a leg to stand on. While opponents of the President’s immigration policies can and should fight ICE overreach in the courts, immigration is exclusively the domain of the federal government. Therefore, there is little local officials can do to stop Trump’s efforts to enforce federal law. That doesn’t mean that Mr. Walz and Mr. Frey can’t make an issue of this politically. Democrats across the country are looking for their leaders to resist Trump at every turn, not least of which on immigration. If Walz is seen to be a public opponent of the Trump administration, that lionizes him in the eyes of the Democratic base.

Republicans have a more difficult job with Walz not on the ballot

For Minnesota Republicans, the combination of Walz ending his reelection campaign and immigration significantly hampers their hope of putting a Republican governor in charge of Minnesota. Walz was a deeply vulnerable candidate due to his mishandling of the fraud situation, which would have given Republicans a real shot at defeating him, with the right candidate. With Walz out of the way, Democrats’ chances of retaining the governorships skyrocket, even without a candidate lined up.

That doesn’t mean Republicans should lose hope. Even without Walz, Minnesotans want accountability for the billions of dollars in taxpayer money that were stolen. Walz or no Walz, Minnesota Democrats will face questions about fraud.

If the Republicans want to defeat whoever the Democratic nominee is, they cannot fall into the Trump trap. Republican candidates often appeal to their loyalty to President Trump both in the primaries and general elections. The results are varied at best, especially in purple-to-blue states. It may work to tout Trump loyalty in a deep-red state like Alabama or Louisiana, but that won’t work in Minnesota.

While Trump won a respectable 46% of the vote in 2024, he did so on the heels of a very unpopular incumbent President Joe Biden. In the governor’s race, an unpopular incumbent president won’t be weighing down the Democrats; this time, the incumbent will be a drag on the Republicans. As a result, Republicans can’t afford to select a candidate who will alienate independents and drive enthusiasm on the Democratic side.

Focus on fraud and what State governments may (and may not) do

In addition to immigration and the corresponding unrest, the midterms will be taking place nationally, which historically has been bad news for the party in control of the White House. State democrats will push to tie the Republican nominee to Trump’s policies, especially on immigration and the economy. The eventual nominee will need to focus on the fraud scandals and not feel the need to defend whatever President Trump does. The recent failure of redistricting in Indiana provides the blueprint that state-level parties don’t have to toe the line when it comes to what the president wants.

Republicans not only need to focus on the fraud, but they also need to remind voters what state governments can do. Many Minnesotans want to be told that the governor can end ICE operations, but that simply isn’t true. Republicans need to be the party of realism and point out that Democrats promising resistance to immigration policy are making promises that can’t be kept.

Whom to select?

So, who are the potential nominees? A straw poll last month revealed the leaders to be businessman Kendall Qualls, State Representative Lisa Demuth, and MyPillow inventor and MAGA loyalist Mike Lindell. Lindell certainly has the most name recognition due to his infomercials and ties to President Trump. That, combined with his personal issues, makes him the worst possible candidate Republicans could run. Republican primary voters should think long-term when picking a candidate for governor. Go with the most Trump-friendly candidate, and you guarantee a loss. Choose a more moderate, less MAGA nominee, and the GOP may have a shot.

The cliche about elections is that you win a primary by running toward your right (if you’re a Republican) and toward the middle in the general. Republican voters in Minnesota would be wise to ignore that maxim. Republicans should moderate in the primaries and in the general. If the GOP reframes the issues and picks a good candidate, they may just have a chance.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.