Leaving Syria or Just Posturing

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. Today I will be talking about Syria and the President’s recently announced decision to pull U.S. troops from that country.

Author’s notes

But first I want to remind you that next Friday I will be attending the Constitution Party National Committee Meeting. So there will be no Castle Report next week. God willing I will be back with you Friday, October 25th.

Today (Friday October 11th) is my 71^st birthday so Happy Birthday to me. I am using this particular one to contemplate the last 71 years and what I have done with them. Many people, perhaps even most people, have retired at my age but I am still working. I am, in fact, working today. So I sit here at this moment in my office high above the streets of Memphis Tennessee. And ready to do what I have been doing for 40 years.

Why I do it

Why I am still doing this is a relevant question, but the answer is fairly simple. It’s what I do and what I know and what I’m good at. Some other reasons are that I enjoy it and I make money doing it. Finally I don’t envy the lives of the retired in my profession.

So 71 today, and 41 of those years I have spent married to the same woman. One of my favorite passages Psalm 68:6 says

The lonely he sets in families.Psalm 68:6

That’s exactly what he did for me and so 41 years as a husband and 35 years as a father. Twenty-seven years in the Constitution Party and almost 10 years of doing this Castle Report, with over 800 episodes now recorded.

Syria and its various occupying forces

That’s enough about me because we are not here to talk about me, but about Syria. In this ancient land where the Apostle Paul had his Damascus Road experience with Jesus some 2000 years ago. Syria was then occupied by the troops of the Roman Empire. Today, 2000 years later, Syria is occupied by the troops of many empires. These include Russia, Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and of course, the United States along with the troops of the ruling Assad family. That family has run Syria now for about 50 years. Currently the ruling family leader, Bandar al Assad, does not seem anxious to give up power.

In addition to the troops and equipment of all those countries, many independent military and quasi military groups occupy Syria. They include what’s left of Al Qaeda, what’s left of ISIS, along with remnants of other terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, and Hamas. Some of those groups fight to control territory, some fight for or against Assad, but most fight; it seems, to act as a blocking force for their enemies.

Why US forces entered Syria

The United States, so we hear, entered Syria with its military to fight ISIS and other terrorist groups. They also had the original purpose of regime change from the Assad regime to one more to U.S. liking. Bandar al Assad still runs the country, at least to an extent. But ISIS, according to President Trump, has been completely destroyed. Since ISIS has been destroyed, and that was the purpose of going there, what reason could possibly remain for U.S. troops remaining on Syrian soil?

Why many prefer that US forces stay in Syria

There are many reasons to remain and many people who would prefer that the United States troops remain in Syria indefinitely, as they have in Iraq and Afghanistan. The U.S. troops, which according to available reports, number only about 1000 are located along the northern border of Syria and the southern border of Turkey. The nation of Turkey, led by de facto dictator Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wants desperately to be the dominant power in the region. And apparently only the United States is keeping him from asserting his dominance by military force. There is a people group spread along the southern border of Turkey and the northern border of Syria and extending into both those countries as well as north western Iraq. The Kurds are ancient enemies of the Turks and certainly do not want to be subjected to Turkish rule.

The Kurdish question

The Kurds have traditionally been friends of Russia and as of late, of the United States. They fought with us in our struggle against ISIS. The Kurds have a history of religious freedom and tolerance. Although Muslims, they prefer to allow Christians to live there in peace. So many Christian refugees fleeing persecution in that area have settled in Kurdish territory.

The Turks and Kurds have been fighting each other since long before the United States became interested in their territory. The area was part of the Ottoman Empire before World War One. Great Britain divided it into the existing nations by Great Britain at the conclusion of that war without very much regard for ethnic homelands. The Kurds wandered back and forth through the region forever. Then the British drew a line in the sand and said do not cross. That didn’t mean much to them. It did, however, mean a lot to the Turks and so there has been conflict and bloodshed ever since.

The US dilemma in Syria

The United States finds itself in the midst of all this conflict with a dilemma on its hands. On the one hand Turkey is a NATO ally and the United States has an airbase in southern Turkey. The U.S. uses that base to control the area and fight its wars. That base, Incirlik, has the largest stockpile of U.S. nuclear weapons outside the United States. The weapons were stockpiled there during the Cold War. They existed as a threat and offset to the nuclear weapons of the Soviet Union, which were pointed at Europe. It would be very bad if those weapons fell into the wrong hands and that is always a real possibility.

Friends and allies

The Kurds are our friends and fellow warriors in the struggle against ISIS in northern Syria. The president tweeted the other day that ISIS was 100% destroyed and the Kurds helped us do it. But he went on to say they were very well paid in money and equipment for their efforts. President Trump announced that he is ordering U.S. troops to leave northern Syria. Coupled with the statements he made about the Kurds, it sounds like he means it.

Turkish sabre rattling re Syria

Turkey has been warning that it plans an invasion of northern Syria to finally put down the Kurds and the SDF, or Syrian Defense Forces. Turkey has been restrained, except in its rhetoric, because of the United States. But recently it has indicated that the invasion will happen even if U.S. forces are still there. 1000 U.S. troops are not going to stop the Turkish Army, reportedly one of the strongest in NATO. But they serve as a reminder that taking them on means taking on the full weight of the U.S. military.

US resources in the region

The U.S. can strike any place in that region. It can strike from its base at Incirlik, from carriers at sea, from Saudi Arabia, from Israel, or from Iraq. So the U.S. is, therefore, not out of options. Having said that I know the U.S. does not want a military conflict with a NATO ally. So it appears that the “Art of the Deal” is playing. A Turkish invasion of Syria to establish a safe zone where Turkey could operate freely in Northern Syria would probably have drastic consequences. These include severe, crippling sanctions against the Turkish economy unless the U.S. and Turkey had a prior deal.

Trump announces withdrawal from northern Syria

For some reason, President Trump has ordered U.S. troops withdrawn. So it appears Erdogan’s threat is real this time, and he actually intends to do it. He may be, in fact, in the process of doing it. Erdogan has been able to work out a cease fire deal with Russia. That allows Turkish troops freedom of movement in the area. But until now negotiations with the United States appear to have failed. Russia awaits the imposition of sanctions against Turkey to help build a closer relationship with Erdogan thus driving a wedge into NATO.

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from the area will obviously reduce the possibility of a clash between U.S. and Turkish forces. Erdogan seems determined to enter Syria regardless of the consequences. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a U.S. ally and is dominated by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Meanwhile, the remaining ISIS leadership probably licks its chops at the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal, and especially Turkish conflict with its nemesis, the Kurds.

What deals has Trump made?

It seems then that the Trump Administration has chosen the interests of a critical strategic ally, Turkey, over that of a loyal, but very small local partner in the fight against the forces of international terrorism. I hope the Trump Administration hasn’t given the Kurds away for free. Surely the deal maker in chief got Turkish concessions in one form or another. This would seem to send out a clear signal to people such as the Kurds that the U.S. is not to be trusted. It also signals that to extricate ourselves from this impossible mess we are willing to let them be slaughtered.

Reaction of the neocons

President Trump didn’t talk about any of this in his announcement, preferring instead to couch the withdrawal in terms of; we’ve been in this stupid war fighting someone else’s battles for too long. I said I was going to end our participation and now I’m doing it. That statement infuriated the neo cons in both the House and Senate. They all got on board to say that it is a strategic mistake similar to President Obama’s decision to partially withdraw from Iraq which the neo cons blame for the rise of ISIS.

The President, for his own reasons, doesn’t want to publicly say, look I made a deal with Erdogan and it will work out better for both countries if we leave. Those types of statements made publicly cause problems with friend and foe alike.

and people in and near northern Syria

To counter U.S. withdrawal, and to give the U.S. something to lose, the Kurds have said that if they have to fight Turkey alone, the ISS prisoners they have in custody just might get away. The other factor along those same lines is that Erdogan has 2-3 million migrants camped just inside the border of Turkey and he would like to be rid of them. If the U.S. could just withdraw then he could send them home to Syria, Iraq, or wherever they came from. These are probably people who don’t really want to go to Europe or the U.S.. But they would be happy just to get away from the fighting.

and the Christians

What about the Christians in the vast camps or located in Kurdish territory, where they have been protected. They, according to CBN News, Jerusalem, are terrified that the various Jihadist groups will make victims and martyrs of them. The Turkish army probably will as well. They will be forced, it seems to me, to look for protection from Russia, Iran or wherever they can find it.

Give Syria back to Assad?

Should Erdogan decide to give control back to Assad it would put Israel, another key ally, at risk as well. It’s a very difficult, very troubling problem to have to finally decide. That is one reason why never ending wars never end. There are simply no good answers. And someone who has trusted your word is going to suffer when it’s not good anymore. That is all why the horrible mistake is in entering these impossible conflicts in the first place. They have been killing each other for thousands of years and their ethnic hatred is still just as strong. Knowing that, why do we want to give them, i.e., Washington, someone to hate more than each other.

Finally folks:

I like to think that Washington learned something from Vietnam but obviously it didn’t. The lesson then is don’t get into the ethnic struggles of others. But if your predecessor has made that mistake then correct it as soon as possible. Non-intervention is the correct policy in my view. Certainly this country should not allow its military to be used to commit aggression against innocent people who are no threat to us.

At least that’s the way I see it.

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle.

Editor’s Note

See also this call by Ariel Natan Pasko for Israel to defend the Kurds directly.