The Modern-Day Treaty of Versailles

“When the flow of goods is no longer available, war is inevitable.”

One of the more consequential events from recent human history was the Treaty of Versailles imposition after World War I. The treaty punished only the newly created Weimar Republic (Germany). Because the Austro-Hungarian Empire was decimated by the Allied Powers. It is hard to sanction a country that no longer exists. This treaty was an important catalyst that created the environment that fostered the events leading up to World War II.

The Allied Powers set forth terms that isolated the Weimar Republic’s and lead to its economic demise. The infamous hyper-inflation of 1921-1924 that brought down the Reichsbank was so destructive that in 1921, one United States Dollar ($USD) converted to four German Marks. At the end, the German Mark’s value plummeted to the point one $USD would fetch four-trillion German Marks.

Germany’s economic fallout was not a bug in the system, but by design of the treaty. No other outcome was possible. Heavy reparations, sanctions, and growth-retarding  prohibitions upon its economy were direct results inherent in the intentions of the Treaty. It created only one outcome possible for the central bank: print, a lot.  The Reichsbank’s monetary policy was so catastrophic, employers were paying workers by the hour and allowing them to leave to buy goods because by the time they were off, the price of bread would double or triple.

The rest, of course, is history.

The Modern-Day Treaty of Versailles is different in formality only. McDonalds, Visa, Mastercard, Facebook, Advanced Micro Devices, and a long and growing list of other private-multinational companies have (allegedly) taken it upon themselves to sanction, isolate, and stifle Russia’s economy through the common Russian. This is the type of collective punishment that led to the rise of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy. It’s the type of punishment of authoritarians.

I admit, as it stands, Russia is far from becoming an imperialistic nation about to wage war upon all of Europe for lebensraum (living-room, Hitler’s excuse for war). However, slippery slopes are slippery for a reason. One sure-fire way to take the average, non-supporter of-the-Ukrainian-War-Russian, to flip them to then supporting Russian imperialism—is to cut off their ability to buy food… or anything else, by isolating them from international society and everyday life.

How would you feel if powerful nations and your favorite companies punished you because of what your sadistic leader was doing? Not happy, I would assume. These types of sanctions are not effective for deterring Russia and Putin from war. Putin does not care much for the suffering of his citizens. Putin only cares about keeping, maintaining, and expanding his power. The man executes dissidents and rigs his own elections. He does not care for the common Russian. He will not start now.

We have already seen an over 50% decline of the Russian stock market—reminiscent of the Great Depression, with such a cataclysmic collapse in value. The Russian Ruble is decreasing in value at an increasing rate. One Dollar fetches around 120 Rubles. The Russian Ruble is worth less than Roblox’s Robux. (That is an in-app currency for games.) Nothing drives people to act in desperation more than fear of the future. When all you have worked hard for your whole life is taken from you fast and you are powerless against it, fear of the future comes quick.

These private-sector sanctions against the whole of the Russian population are the modern-day Treaty of Versailles. The ramifications will be tremendous if they continue for a pro-longed period.

Seriously, what is the effect of Netflix or Disney (or even Pornhub) blocking their services to average Russians, on the war? My bet, nothing. Isolating and punishing some random Russian in Siberia by blocking his ability to buy groceries or enjoy Netflix is only going to lead to radical nationalism against the isolators.

These private sanctions may turn out to be pathetic virtue-signaling. Private enterprises operate to make a profit. Shutting off one of the world’s largest economies is going to hurt the bottom line after a while. Putin knows this too. And he might use that to his advantage. While common Ukrainians and Russians suffer. If only Biden and the rest of the world knew how to play chess, not checkers.

Something tells me a certain Bad Orange Man would have prevented this entire scenario. And $6.00 gas.