Abortion overrule – what would happen

Today the Supreme Court yet again declined to issue an opinion on the “Roe v. Wade leak case.” May has only one possible opinion day left (Tuesday, May 31). After that, the American people must wait until June and might have to wait until the end of June. In the meantime, the speculation on what happens if the Court overrules Roe v. Wade gets ever hotter. Sadly, a climate of violence has also set in.

Abortion laws waiting on a Roe override

Overruling Roe v. Wade would not, by itself, forbid anyone to get an abortion in America. The reason: abortion is not a matter of federal law. The Senate did try to pass a law codifying Roe v. Wade, but that failed even of a simple majority.

The Guttmacher Institute published an interactive map purporting to show how many women would drive into abortion-allowing States, and how far they would have to drive. Headlines differ widely on how many States are involved. Nevertheless, given the map, CNAV counts twenty-six States, all in the “Lower Forty-eight,” that would forbid or restrict abortion more than the current Roe precedent allows. They are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

The outlet Finish the Race gives further details. Thirteen States have “trigger laws” that would forbid abortions if the Supreme Court overrules Roe. In addition, several States have six- to eight-week bans waiting to take effect. Legislatures in Florida, Indiana, Montana and Nebraska are ready to act but haven’t yet acted.

This analysis covers only those States with laws now on the books, or legislatures likely to ask this year. But it does not include States likely to “flip” pro-life within a year or two. That includes Virginia, whose entire Senate will come up for reelection next fall.

The religious side

The pro-abortion side seems desperate. Now they’re trying to say that God is on their side! This report from the Tuscaloosa News seems typical. It also displays a supreme irony—for it says black women of faith are far more likely than white women to say their faith allows abortion. Why is this ironic? Because many more black women get abortions than white. This has led many, including former Clinton adviser Dick Morris, to say abortion amounts to genocide for people of color.

On the other hand, recall also that the Archbishop of San Francisco recently excommunicated House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In this case, the judgment extended only to refusing Communion until she repents. Today Archbishop Salvatore J. Cordileone said flatly he had been trying to talk to Pelosi for years about abortion. He tried more earnestly after she secured passage of HR 3755, the “Women’s Health Protection Act,” in the House. When she refused even to talk to him, he acted. He has jumped into controversy before. So when he says the Roe Leak had nothing to do with his decision, he’s likely telling the truth.

President Biden seems to think a Roe overrule will help elect more pro-abortion legislators and Governors. But he might not be able to support that. Single women might vote single-issue on abortion, but married women will not. Instead they will vote on inflation and stagnation – and that means voting Republican.

Violent acts

The sad part is that many advocates for abortion have already turned violent. Axios says they have a memo from the intelligence office of the Department of Homeland Security. That memo warns of threats against the Supreme Court and its members, plus legislators, clergy, and “health care providers.” Again, Axios says they have a memo, and quote from it, but they will not link to it. Axios quotes it as saying they expect violent acts from both sides. For example:

Some racially or ethnically motivated violent extremists’ embrace of pro-life narratives may be linked to the perception of wanting to “save white children” and “fight white genocide.”

But again, the problem with abortion is more black genocide than white. The statistics show that.

The memo does give a grudging nod to the threats—and actual violent acts—that have already come from the pro-abortion side. We hear of people threatening to burn down or storm the Supreme Court. (Good luck with that; the Court has an extra-high fence around it, that went up after The Leak.) But the memo also says they don’t consider mere rhetoric enough of a threat.

Clearly DHS is in a bind. Its leadership sympathizes with abortion. But they can’t afford to let anyone get hurt, going into Midterms. Imagine the headlines! Imagine the battle cries: “Remember the Madison Molotov! Vote, vote, vote!”

On one thing everyone agrees: this will keep on until the Court releases an opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.