Hypothetical presidential matchup puts DeSantis 8 points above Trump

In a hypothetical poll, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis leads former President Donald Trump by 8 points, which represents a 15-point swing from when Trump led DeSantis by 7 points in January.

The USA Today-Suffolk University poll released Wednesday found that 48 percent of Republican voters in Florida said they would support DeSantis compared to 40 percent who said they would opt for Trump. Trump led DeSantis in the January USA Today-Suffolk poll, 47 to 40 percent.

Previous straw polls conducted have shown both Trump and DeSantis to be front runners for the 2024 GOP nominee, however neither Trump nor DeSantis have official confirmed they are running.

“Well, in my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in anymore. In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision,” Trump previously told the New York Magazine of his intentions for 2024.

Trump asked, “Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision.”

“Let people know. I think a lot of people would not even run if I did that because, if you look at the polls, they don’t even register. Most of these people,” he said. “And I think that you would actually have a backlash against them if they ran. People want me to run.”

David Paleologos, who is the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told USA Today that DeSantis’s lead may not translate across other states, but he did indicate it could point to a shift among some Republican voters.

“But it is one data point suggesting a shift in preferences from GOP voters away from Trump and toward DeSantis from Republicans who know both potential combatants quite well,” he said. 

The poll also found that DeSantis has a healthier lead than Trump in hypothetical polls with President Biden in Florida. DeSantis leads Biden among all respondents by 8 points in Florida, 52 to 44 percent, while Trump leads Biden by 3 points, at 47 percent.

The poll also found that there was a divide between Trump and DeSantis based on wealth. Wealthier Floridians tended to side with DeSantis whereas those less affluent opted for Trump.

Trump leads DeSantis, 53 percent to 36 percent, among those making under $50,000 per year. DeSantis leads Trump, 55 percent to 33 percent, among those earning $50,000 or more per year.

The poll surveyed a total of 500 likely voters were polled from September 15 to September 18. The margin of error for all respondents is 4.4 points.