Ukraine – too many accidents

Over the past two days, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization came close to an Article 4 consultation conference. This happened after two men died when a missile fell on the Polish village of Przewodów, near the Ukrainian border. Officials on both sides of the Atlantic at first assumed that the Russian-made missile came from Russia. It didn’t. The Poles now admit that Ukraine, not Russia, fired that missile. This turns out to be the latest in a long line of “accidents” that Ukrainians using Russian-made equipment, have caused. But are they accidents? Or could they be false-flag pseudo-operations designed to widen the conflict between Russia and Ukraine?

What we know about the Ukraine missile

The first report of the missile strike came from Madeleine Hubbard at Just the News, at 2:42 p.m. EST. She quoted the Associated Press as saying that a missile, or missiles, had crossed into Poland from the Ukrainian side. The missile or missiles fell into the village of Przewodów and killed two civilians. Polish television tweeted out footage of the aftermath:

The text of the tweet translates from the Polish as:

Two Russian missiles on the territory of Poland? The site of the explosion near the border with Ukraine near Hrubieszow.

But early Wednesday morning, the Associated Press was already reporting doubts that the missile. came from Russia. First, the AP said there was only one missile, not two. Second, they quoted Polish and American officials as raising the doubts. The missile was, without a doubt, of Russian manufacture. But Ukraine forces use weapons and munitions of both Russian and American manufacture.

Reuters at first reported that Polish authorities were demanding a consultation with other NATO members. Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty provides for such consultation whenever anyone suspects an external attack.

Then at 11:42 a.m. EST, Reuters identified the missile as an S-300, which goes back to the old Soviet Union. Finally at 12:36 p.m. EST, Reuters quoted Polish President Andrzej Duda as saying Ukraine probably fired it.

Clarification from Poland

In fact as early as 6:03 a.m. EST Wednesday, the Polish Presidential Twitter account carried this message:

There is no evidence that this was an intentional attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made missile of the S-300 type. At the moment we have no evidence that it was a missile launched by the Russian side.

Many points to the fact that it was an air defense missile, which unfortunately fell on the territory of Poland.

(Note: all translations come from Yandex, not from Twitter’s own translation utility.)

Two hours later, Madeleine Hubbard at Just the News reported the same.

Russia did launch airstrikes all over Ukraine, and naturally the Ukrainians fired anti-aircraft missiles in self-defense. In this light, what the Polish President said, makes sense. Furthermore, even President Biden admitted that the trajectory of the missile was inconsistent with a launch from Russia.

At 2:38 p.m. EST Dmitri Medvedev sent a strange message on his Telegram channel:

An afterword to the hysteria of the Kiev vassals about their retaliatory strike against Poland.

That’s what haunts me. If a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile had hit directly into Capitol – would it be a zrada or a peremoga?

Zrada means betrayal. Peremoga apparently means overwhelming victory. Those two words became part of regular Ukrainian discourse after the Maidan Revolution of 2014.

Accusations against Ukraine

The Telegram channel UKR Leaks has some interesting messages that neither AP nor Reuters seem interested in reading. First, they took note that the Russia Hits Poland narrative was all over British media. They displayed front pages from The Daily Mirror, The Daily Telegraph, and The Times, all with banner headlines blaming Russia. Then they add:

British journalists are not confused by the fact that two Polish farmers in the village of Przevodow died as a result of the fall of the Ukrainian missile, which is not only an air defense missile, but also, in general, could not reach Poland from the territory of Russia. This is claimed by the Western news agency Associated Press. Even Joe Biden said that the probability of Russia’s involvement in the incident is extremely small.

However, society is so accustomed to the picture of the world, which has been created by Western media for many years, that “unnecessary” and “inconvenient” questions simply do not arise in the head of a regular Western person.

Next they made a more serious allegation. UKR Leaks lists eight separate incidents of Ukraine causing collateral damage in NATO territory and/or casualties among NATO citizens. One incident involves an American reporter for The New York Times. The rest involve collateral damage or casualties to assets and/or persons from Rumania, Estonia, and Turkey. Tuesday’s Poland incident is only the latest.

Last of all they say:

Under the cover of the war with Russia, Ukraine is waging a hybrid war against NATO!

Apologies from NATO

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg acknowledged that the S-300 that fell onto Przewodów did come from Ukraine. But then he said,

There is no confirmation that the incident in Poland was the result of deliberate actions. Preliminary information indicates the strike by Ukrainian air defense missiles. But I want to make it clear that this is not Ukraine’s fault. Russia bears full responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.

Incredibly, Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, denies that the missile came from his air defenses. This after everyone from U.S. President Biden to Polish President Duda says the trajectory traces back to Ukraine!

The head of the city council of Lublin, Poland’s ninth-largest city, criticized Ukraine and suggested Warsaw should re-examine its position, according to Intel Slava Z.

I absolutely do not understand the actions of our President and government.… It is obvious that this is a Ukrainian missile. It is obvious that this is a provocation on the part of the Ukrainian authorities. The missile could not have been launched 100 km in the opposite direction by mistake. Today, our president should not reassure us with fairy tales like “it was not so much a rocket explosion, but an explosion of fuel that was there” and “it was accident”, but to make it clear to V. Zelensky that Poland will no longer tolerate such behavior of the Ukrainian authorities! I urge you to reconsider Poland’s position on this war in the event of another crossing of the red line!

Are these false-flag pseudo-operations?

Look again at that UKR Leaks “accident” list. Wherever they identified the equipment involved, it was of Russian manufacture. Never once did any of these “accidents” involve American equipment.

That makes eight “accidents” since the conflict began, more than half occurring last March! And all of them involving equipment of Russian manufacture. Furthermore, the S-300 figures in more than half of these “accidents.” Russians would use their most up-to-date equipment, not Soviet-era antiques.

UKR Leaks quotes this proverb:

It is common for every person to make mistakes. But it is not common for anyone but a fool to persist in a mistake.

The Roman consul Marcus Tullius Cicero put it more strongly:

Any man can make mistakes, but only an idiot persists in his error.

Ukraine has been very “persistent” indeed – if these were errors. Perhaps this proverb applies:

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, and the third time it’s enemy action. Ian Fleming

Suppose then, as the Lublin city council head directly accuses, these are not accidents? Suppose these are false-flag pseudo-operations? A false-flag pseudo-operation is an operation you run against your own side, while pretending to be the enemy. Ukraine is not a NATO member, but is asking for NATO’s help. So they have eight “accidents” with equipment that looks Russian because it is Russian – but antiquated and inferior. All to provoke NATO into starting World War Three for their benefit.

Accident – or intention? You decide. And don’t forget the FTX scandal, also involving Ukraine.