No Speaker yet for House

The House of Representatives, as of this morning, has yet to choose a Speaker. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has stood for Speaker six times – and failed each time. He dared the House Freedom Caucus to block his bid for the Speakership – and they took the dare. Two questions now remain: what concessions will McCarthy have to make, and will he keep his promises?

McCarthy’s doubtful quest to become Speaker

Kevin McCarthy has compiled a nasty record at least since springtime of 2022. In April a recording surfaced of him saying he was considering demanding that then-President Donald J. Trump resign. More recently someone started a rumor that former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) could become Speaker. (No one at all is talking seriously about that prospect today.)

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) did talk seriously about running for Speaker himself. In the November House Republican Conference meeting, McCarthy won the “nomination” to the Speakership, 188 to 31 for Biggs. But five Members declared they would never vote for McCarthy, no matter what. They are Representatives Biggs, Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Bob Good (R-Va.).

McCarthy might have brought his trouble on himself. The Red Wave broke on three “seawalls,” and rumor has him helping Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) build one of them. Simply put, he withheld campaign funds from anti-establishment (“MAGA”) candidates. All he cared about was: would this candidate vote to make him Speaker? If not, no money. The House Republican Conference could have gained a hundred seats. Instead they gained barely enough for control.

So McCarthy started “conceding,” promising to change the House rules to make it easier to recall a Speaker. (Nancy Pelosi made that almost impossible.) But he apparently dared his opponents to make trouble in the House organizational meeting, on the theory that it would look bad.

Matt Gaetz takes the dare

But Matt Gaetz clearly took the dare. He nominated Andy Biggs on the first ballot. Nineteen Republicans voted for someone other than McCarthy on that ballot. Of these, ten voted for Biggs and the rest voted for others, including Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio).

In the second ballot, Jordan actually put McCarthy’s name in nomination. Gaetz’ rejoinder was to nominate Jordan himself. In so saying, he said:

If you’re trying to drain the swamp, you don’t put the chief alligator in charge of that exercise!

His eighteen rebellious colleagues agreed with him, so again the vote failed to select a candidate with an absolute majority. Notably absent from this vote was Rep. Dan Webster (R-Fla.), who had defeated Laura Loomer in her primary. He was back for a third vote – and cast it for McCarthy. But Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), Chairman of the House Republican Conference, voted for Jordan instead. Result: twenty votes against McCarthy.

Democrats have all voted consistently for their chosen Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries. He represents a sea change, because all Democratic leaders have stepped down or aside.

The House adjourned until noon yesterday. CNAV Contributor MacKenzie Bettle suggested that the Republicans risked looking disarrayed by continuing the delay. Even President Trump endorsed McCarthy over any other challenger.

Still no Speaker after three more votes

But a settlement of the Speakership was not to be. At noon, the House convened again. This time Matt Gaetz nominated Byron Donalds to be Speaker. The latest reports indicate that Donalds got all the votes of the “defectors.” In any event he got enough of them to deny a resolution even after a total of six votes. The House agreed to adjourn until 8:00 p.m. EST. But instead of voting for a seventh time, someone introduced a motion to adjourn. It passed, 218 to 216 with two Republicans and two Democrats not voting. (The House currently has 434 members. Rep. Don McEachin, D-Va., died last month.)

No one believes that anyone went to bed after that adjournment. Everyone expects McCarthy to be still trying to negotiate.

His will not be an easy task. Matt Gaetz, in the press conference announcing his refusal to budge, excoriated McCarthy for refusing key legislative concessions. They include:

• Support for a limit in the number of years a Representative may serve, and
• A rule requiring any budget resolution to balance before going to the floor for a vote.

More to the point, the Freedom Caucus has not forgiven him for withholding campaign funds and limiting Republican gains merely to have a smaller Conference that he could better control.

The insult slingers

McCarthy’s supporters have been slinging insults – or worse. Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) actually used the word terrorist to describe his recalcitrant “Never Kevin” colleagues.

Laura Loomer, in Washington now to confront various Members, received worse: an offer of physical violence. She tried to ask Frank Luntz a question about McCarthy. According to her, Luntz tried to have her arrested. She recorded the event – and then Luntz’ companion knocked her smartphone out of her hand. Loomer describes what happened next:

Your editor, as “Declarations of Truth,” had an interesting dispute with another Twitter user over whether or not a previous Speaker can appoint a successor if the House fails to choose one by election. Here is the thread:

In fact no precedent exists for a previous Speaker to choose a successor. The House has always chosen its Speaker by roll-call vote. Even during contests for the Speakership, the contest continues until a candidate wins a majority of votes cast. The most recent such contest happened in 1923. The House took nine votes to elect a Speaker then.

Mr. Haynes suggested that the previous officeholder could name a successor after deadlock becomes apparent. He quoted Rep. Crenshaw as saying that. Actually he did say something similar, but not identical.

Dan Crenshaw clearly mis-spoke, and Nathan Haynes mis-heard. The Clerk of the House can do nothing but hold vote after vote after vote – until the House does agree on a new Speaker.

Conclusion

The House will meet again at noon today. In fact McCarthy himself set the precedent he now wants to avoid – that the failing candidate bow out. McCarthy himself did precisely that after then-Speaker John Boehner had to resign. McCarthy couldn’t get the votes, so the Republican Conference settled on Paul Ryan. Who turned out to be just as disastrous.

This impasse has clearly brought out the worst in people. That includes Rep. Crenshaw, who, if he is not lying, is at least exaggerating the role of the House Clerk. It also includes McCarthy, who by some accounts is negotiating with Democrats – without result. Back in the last century he might have been able to broker a victory by such means. But that was when the most liberal Republican was more liberal than was the most conservative Democrat. That is no longer and might never again be the case.

Furthermore it ill befits Rep. Crenshaw to compare the House leadership election to some kind of primary, and House Organization Day as the corresponding general election. He knows that such a comparison has no foundation. Only desperation would make him say something like that.

Dr. Stephen Turley suggests that Matt Gaetz has already made himself de facto Speaker. Meaning that McCarthy, in order to be Speaker, must concede a rule allowing as few as five Members to recall a Speaker. After that, McCarthy might wield the gavel, but what Gaetz says, goes.

Still, Republicans would do better with a different Speaker.