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How is the war going?

How goes the war in Ukraine? A critical examination of the Jack Teixeira Leak, differences from official reportage, and whether it’s real.

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Ukraine - how goes the war

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 14th day of April in the year of our Lord 2023. How is the war in Ukraine going? It depends on who you ask. But a recent release of classified documents concerning U.S. foreign policy might shed some light on the subject. So I will be talking about that information today. The fact that the U.S. is going to great lengths to find the leaker tells me that the information leaked is more than likely valid. It seems that now an Air National Guardsman has been arrested for the release.

Before I start, please keep in mind that the Constitution Party National Committee Meeting is next week. So no podcast then. I will be back with you the week after that.

The war in Vietnam – excuse me – Ukraine

There is a lot of information in the leak that looks legitimate and a lot that does not. But how can we know for sure, or how can we tell the difference? The Russians say that it looks like an attempt to distract their attention from what’s really going on. But it is an apparent embarrassment for the U.S. in any event. A member of the group Discord has been credited with the release by a teenaged member of the same group. He’s fit, he’s strong, he’s armed, he’s trained, he’s just about everything you expect out of some crazy movie. That is the description of the releaser given to The Washington Post by his teenaged associate.

Who leaked this massive amount of classified information and put it out on social media for the whole world to examine? Just like the Vietnam days no one seems to know for sure and everyone has a theory. The leak details Pentagon planning for the next stage in the war and makes it clear that this is a war between U.S./NATO and Russia. The shocking thing is the release of extensive details about U.S. plans for Russia, China and others. And it further reveals that the U.S. eavesdrops on everyone including its closest friends.

The Five Eyes

War plans the U.S. shared with its closest allies such as the five eyes as they are known. The five eyes are the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the U.S. Those nations are supposed to have a special relationship which includes the sharing of intel that is obtained by each of them. The information about U.S. spying on everybody is like a spy-vs-spy novel or cartoon from the cold war days. But it could also cause a great deal of harm to the U.S. if real. Once again it is not the release that is the harm, but the actions that are the subject of the release.

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There are some very frightening things in the release. The conclusion that the United States is currently at war with Russia is inescapable. The only thing preventing this war from going nuclear is the good sense of those running it. So I wonder if that thought frightens anyone besides me. Whether this information is real, or fake is open to debate, but its conclusion is not. The Russians don’t flat out call it a fake, but they say they don’t trust it. The Pentagon says it is a fake, but The New York Times and The Washington Post believe it to be genuine and published a good deal of it including the interview.

U.S. operations and planning in Ukraine

There are details in the release that are very damaging to the U.S. position, and which require either a great deal of knowledge or a great deal of skill to invent. For example, the U.S. feeds intel non-stop around the clock to the Ukrainians about Russian command posts, ammunition dumps, weak spots in Russian lines, unprotected flanks on the battle lines, location of general officers, etc. Real time battle intel that can affect the outcome of battle on a day-by-day basis.

There is also the indication that U.S./NATO officials or representatives are involved in the planning and execution of strikes based on the intel provided. In other words, it is a U.S./NATO war. It is the kind of direct intel that allows the targeting and killing of Russian general officers and the kind that forces Russian supply depots further and further back toward Russia. According to the release the U.S. alone has and maintains total control of the war on a command-and-control basis.

Correction of the casualty counts

One other part of the release that seems to make it more believable is its correction of the casualty figures that are being tossed around by Pentagon officials then normally denied by Russian officials. We have been told for months that Russian dead exceed 200,000 and Ukrainian dead exceed 100,000 but the release disputes those numbers. These are the casualty figures to date as listed in the original leaked release.

Russia Total Losses:

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  • 72 fighter bombers; 82 rotary wing aircraft
  • 6,004 ground vehicles
  • 35.4K to 43.5K KIA

Ukraine Total Losses:

  • 60 fighter bombers; 32 rotary wing aircraft
  • 11 SAM Batteries (strategic) 34 SAM batteries (tactical)
  • 16K to 17.5K KIA

These figures come straight from Official Ukrainian Records which probably means that it is difficult to track them. So the U.S. simply records what the Ukrainians tell them. It’s always possible that the Ukrainians are lying to make their numbers seem smaller. These numbers seem woefully short of reality to me. I remember reading figures of the fighting around Mariupol as around 15,000 casualties and 10,000 KIA and about 5000 POW’s. So apparently there is some propaganda even in the release of U.S. officially prepared documents. The interesting thing is how different the official U.S. internal documents are from the publicly released propaganda of over 200,000 dead.

Total forces deployed in Ukraine

The other interesting thing revealed in the release is the total forces deployed inside the country. U.S. propaganda numbers were 1 million Ukrainian troops versus 500-700 thousand Russian-Allied forces. It is hard to make 200,000 KIA look plausible when you compare that to the real number of troops in the field. If you add up the figures of all the units deployed and apply the table of organization which is almost always high, you get an absolute maximum of 300,000 Ukrainian troops. Units are almost never at TO strength so 200,000 to 250,000 is probably more accurate.

The interesting thing about the Russian numbers is that of their combat battalions 97% are committed to battle. Despite that figure the Russians have maneuver battalions and reserve battalions. Russian numbers are significantly augmented by the Wagner Group private contractors, essentially a private army employed by the Kremlin. The closest I can come to figuring out the very confusing Russian numbers is about 100,000 Russian troops on each of three fronts and about 20 to 25, 000 Wagner troops.

Ordnance

Let’s look at some of that ordnance provided by hard working Americans for use in this war against Russia. The U.S. provided a complicated rocket artillery system and to date it has expended 9,612 rockets. They are firing between 14 and 28 rockets per day. The other workhorse artillery system is the 155mm gun. The Ukrainians have fired 952,856 155mm rounds to date for an average of 2,575 per day. The eye-opening thing about these numbers is that it shows only 1,840 rounds enroute to being delivered. The conclusion must be that the U.S. is running very low on 155mm rounds.

U.S. special forces in Ukraine is listed at 14 with a total of 97 NATO personnel. Total U.S. personnel is listed at 100 The British have the country crawling with SAS, but I could not find their total strength. But a lot of SAS support vehicles and aircraft indicate a lot of boots on the ground. To finalize the equipment numbers, it is shocking to see that from official U.S. numbers every system of artillery is running out of ammunition.

Big spring offensive?

The big spring offensive that the Ukrainian forces are supposed to be launching sometime around the end of this month was broken down in great detail with each unit and its various components. From this information the Russians would almost know the name and service number of every single Ukrainian assigned to the attack. Ukraine has, according to the release, 253 tanks available for this attack. The vast majority are old Soviet T-64’s and old T-72’s and not the highly upgraded version of the T-72. They also now have 14 British Challengers but the old prewar T-64’s are almost gone and probably cannot be replaced in large numbers.

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How much can the Armed Forces of Ukraine take?

Finally, the release tells us and the Russians that the Ukrainians can only withstand “2-3 more wave strikes.” No one seems to know for sure, but I would assume it means Russian missile or drone strike waves. There is no mention of the large numbers of T-72’s. Ukraine reportedly once had upwards of 300 so one might presume those have been destroyed. And if so that conflicts with earlier numbers.

The release which was dated March 1st says Ukraine needs 253 tanks, 380 infantry fighting vehicles and APC’s, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces, and 571 HMMWV armored vehicles to carry out its planned offensive. The release makes it clear that Ukrainian forces are not up to this attack. But the Russians seem to think the release is just misdirection, so they choose not to believe it. According to the New York Post and Washington Post the Ukrainians are furious at the release of information about their lack of readiness.

More leaks?

The leaks have been coming hot and heavy since the original release. The original release on the website 4chan revealed highly classified information regarding the spring attack that I have talked about. It is impossible to tell if it is genuine or just more spin for some reason. The leak could be from a disgruntled insider, but who knows? One thing is made clear by the leak and that is that the spin people are out of their minds with propaganda. A reported 200,000 Russian dead when the actual documents presume less than one fourth of that.

This is all madness, but war is a madness business above all things. How can this war ultimately end? It can end when both parties become so depleted financially and physically that they are forced to stop. One of the two sides could prevail on the battlefield and impose its will on the other. The U.S. could stop providing weapons and money and force negotiations or both sides could sit down and work out a negotiated settlement. Finally, it could end in nuclear annihilation and that is the frightening one.

There is a strong rumor surrounding the leaks as they appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post and even Russia Today that the leaker was a disgruntled but very nervous insider who concluded that the war was building to a nuclear conclusion unless something was done to reverse the direction.

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Real – or psyop?

Finally, folks, are the leaks real or are the leaks a psyops? Who knows or who can say with any degree of confidence, but Satan demands his souls and there are plenty of people at the head of governments willing to give them to him.

At Least that’s the way I see it.

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle.

From CastleReport.us; appears by permission.

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Attorney at Law at | dlcastle@castlereport.us | Website | + posts

Darrell Castle is an attorney in Memphis, Tennessee, a former USMC Combat Officer, 2008 Vice Presidential nominee, and 2016 Presidential nominee. Darrell gives his unique analysis of current national and international events from a historical and constitutional perspective. You can subscribe to Darrell's weekly podcast at castlereport.us

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