Tom Emmer in – and out!

Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), within hours of winning the Speaker’s nomination by a close margin, bowed out of the race. He dropped out before the business day was done, apparently without saying a word. This happened after President Donald J. Trump signaled his unalterable opposition, as did twenty-six of Emmer’s colleagues.

Tom Emmer wins nod – by the skin of his teeth

Tom Emmer was one of ten Representatives contending for the Speakership in yesterday’s Candidate Forum. The House Republican Conference held five secret ballots in all, ending today (October 24) at about noon EDT. In the first three ballots, Emmer led, along with Representatives Mike Johnson (R-La.), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.), and Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) On the fourth ballot, Rep. Hern, in fourth place, dropped out. Then Rep. Donalds eliminated himself voluntarily. On the fifth and final ballot, Emmer beat Johnson – 117-97, with three not voting.

Emmer, who serves as Majority Whip, did not have a good reputation among conservatives. In fact he once openly supported the National Popular Vote Initiative and Compact. This Compact would have its members assign all their Presidential Electors to the ticket winning the national popular vote. It would go into effect as soon as the member States commanded 270 or more electoral votes among them. Beyond that, Emmer called for amending the Constitution to remove all mention of Presidential Electors.

Steven Ahle, writing yesterday in The Doug Billings Report, had worse things to say about Emmer. As Majority Whip he was key to electing Republicans. But he set out to break the campaigns of “MAGA Republicans” in their primaries. When some of them won anyway, he cut off all support. The only reason Republicans took the House last Midterms is that several campaigns ran “ballot chasing” operations of their own, in California and New York. Again, no thanks to Emmer.

Trump opposes

Donald J. Trump, understandably, has not forgotten this other Emmer-ism: Emmer refused to support Trump in 2024. He said so – loudly – to the Republican donor class.

So at 2:11 p.m., the former President made his displeasure known on Truth Social:

I have many wonderful friends wanting to be Speaker of the House, and some are truly great Warriors. RINO Tom Emmer, who I do not know well, is not one of them. He never respected the Power of a Trump Endorsement, or the breadth and scope of MAGA—MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! He fought me all the way, and actually spent more time defending Ilhan Omar, than he did me—He is totally out-of-touch with Republican Voters. I believe he has now learned his lesson, because he is saying that he is Pro-Trump all the way, but who can ever be sure? Has he only changed because that’s what it takes to win? The Republican Party cannot take that chance, because that’s not where the America First Voters are. Voting for a Globalist RINO like Tom Emmer would be a tragic mistake!

Opposition to Emmer’s candidacy ran high on Truth Social and almost dominated the main feed. Twenty-six of his fellow Representatives indicated at once they would not support him.

Several of them told All the Web News that no one could change their minds. In fact they said their Conference leadership could do with some changes.

In fact, after the vote, Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.) talked openly of “working with Democrats” to vote Emmer in. According to this X accountholder, several Democrats were willing to “sit the vote out” to let Emmer take the post.

In fact, twenty-five minutes after the fifth ballot, a “buzz” started on X saying Emmer didn’t have the votes, and couldn’t get them.

Twelve minutes after Trump’s post, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) posted this:

Then Jake Sherman of Punchbowl News broke this:

At 3:17 p.m. EDT, the Majority Whip was planning a news conference, but he knew then he might fail.

At 4:00 p.m. EDT, the Conference reconvened, in the Longworth House Office Building. But the handwriting was already on the wall.

Mene, mene, tekel u parsin. Daniel 5:25

Tom Emmer abruptly withdraws

The “Mike Johnson” buzz continued, but certain considerations tempered it.

Then at 4:22 p.m. EDT, Tom Emmer walked out of the meeting, speaking to no one.

Word came shortly thereafter that Tom Emmer was out of the race, according to Just the News.

At 4:43 p.m. EDT, apparently a discussion began to suspend Conference rules and narrowing the choice between Reps. Hern and Johnson.

The Conference demanded that candidates declare themselves by 6:00 p.m. EDT. Shortly thereafter, Jake Sherman quoted sources saying that Hern, Johnson, and Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) were in the running.

But the announcements didn’t stop with those three. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), at 5:44 p.m. EDT, announced six candidates in all:

Five minutes before the Candidate Forum was to begin, Rep. Rick Allen (R-Ga.) dropped a thunderclap on the meeting:

That provoked a loud collective gasp.

The Conference had planned to vote at 8:00 p.m. EDT tonight. But Kevin Hern dropped out of the race at 6:25 p.m. and endorsed Rep. Johnson.

Five minutes later, Sherman made clear that the House Republican Conference, not the House itself, was voting tonight.

The vote did take place. These posts give the details:

At 9:57 p.m. EDT, Rep. Johnson won on the third ballot, with 128 votes.

But whether he can win the others over any better than could Tom Emmer is far from clear.

If not he, who?

Oddly, one name has not come up for Speaker, though it should: Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.). Bob Good entered the House in January 2021, after defeating incumbent Denver Riggleman in a drive-through convention. (Republicans in Virginia generally prefer to nominate their candidates by convention. In the spring of 2020, when Good challenged Riggleman, Virginia was under a COVID-related state of emergency. For that reason, Republicans everywhere, for two years running, nominated their candidates through unattended conventions.) Good defeated Riggleman with 58 percent of the vote, and went on to win the general election. He ran for re-election in 2022 and won easily.

Good supported Trump all the way in 2020 and 2021. After the Election of 2020, he appeared at a rally and boldly declared that COVID pandemic precautions were an excuse to run elections in a fraudulent manner. (This notoriously included the establishment of unattended drop boxes for ballot deposit.) He voted not to certify the election for Joe Biden on January 6. Since Biden’s inauguration, he has refused attendance at State of the Union addresses, and sponsored resolutions of impeachment against Biden and Vice-President Kamala Harris. But his most striking declaration came during a debate on anti-domestic-violence legislation, nearly two years ago:

Nearly everything that plagues our society can be attributed to a failure to follow God’s laws for morality and His rules for and definition of marriage and family.

Likewise, he voted against the National Defense Authorization Act of 2022 – because it provided for registering women for the draft.

Recent activity

Bob Good was one of the “Crazy Eight,” including Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who voted to “vacate the chair.” This did not please former Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who accused the Eight of “unleash[ing] furies” in their Conference. After Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) lost a third vote to be Speaker, the Eight (except for Ken Buck of Colorado) offered to accept any retribution the anti-Jordan holdouts cared to mete out, if they would vote for Jordan. They didn’t, so all talk of retribution is ended.

And today, of course, he was one of the twenty-six holdouts that doomed the candidacy of Tom Emmer. On the fifth ballot, he voted for Rep. Johnson.

More importantly, he has been in the House Freedom Caucus since coming to Congress in 2021. He also serves on the House Committees on the Budget and Education and the Workforce.

Why he didn’t declare his candidacy for the Speakership, CNAV cannot speculate. But he has been a consistent champion of personal freedom and moral standards. Rep. Rick Allen would certainly approve of him. CNAV urges him to declare his candidacy by any means within the rules, especially if Mike Johnson also must withdraw.