The dragon breathes fire – TIP-2-2

For completeness’ sake – and to keep a promise to readers – CNAV returns today to the Heritage Foundation’s Transition Integrity Project. Today we treat Game 2, which portrays the Chinese Communist Party as the bad foreign actor. With all due respect to the Heritage Foundation, this game, even more than Game 1 (Mexican Gambit, Accepted), is sloppy. It reports moves, but leaves no reference to supporting evidence, if available – and the evidence is not always sufficient. Add to it that events – including the attempted assassination of the President and the dismissal of a key case against him (said dismissal now on appeal) – have overtaken the Heritage TIP and made it valueless. Heritage needs to do this exercise over – and CNAV does plan to release its own scenario. This one will begin after the Republican National Convention, instead of waiting until after the Democratic.

Review of game play setup

Again, Heritage set up the players in several teams, which they grouped into three cells, as follows:

Blue Cell: Biden Administration, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), Congressional Democrats, Intelligence Community/FBI/CIA, Department of Justice, Mainstream Media, Big Tech/Social Media/Internet Companies, TikTok, Black Lives Matter/Antifa/Pro-Hamas, and Urban Law Enforcement.

Red Cell: Republican National Committee (RNC), Congressional Republicans, Republican Lawyers’ Association, Conservative Media, Evangelicals, Twitter/X and Truth Social, Project 2025, and Local Sheriffs.

White Cell: China, Russia, Mexico/Central America, Cartels, Appeals Court, Supreme Court of the United States, U.S. Military, Lower Courts in Swing States, and Swing State Governors.

Roles functioning as non-players/exercise facilitators: Exercise Leader, Exercise Manager, Scenario Analysts, Tech Support, and Scribes.

Game play proceeded in six Turns, as follows:

1. Democratic National Convention to Labor Day,
2. Labor Day to whenever early voting starts in any given unit (i.e., county or independent city),
3. From start of early voting to Election Day,
4. One week from Election Day to November 12,
5. The certification period (November 13 through December 5), and
6. End of certification period to the Constitutional Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025).

Communications flowed freely between and among some players (almost always within Cells), and not so freely between and among others. As each game began, all players received a briefing on the circumstances peculiar to the war game they would run. Then the players relayed their intentions to the Facilitators – who played the same role as that of the Dungeon Master in Dungeons and Dragons. The Facilitators, said Heritage, “used free arbitration methods to decide which measures would meet with success.” Meaning, they would roll dice – or guess.

Social media players, whoever they were, could emulate – or change – the Rules of the particular social media platforms they portrayed.

Disclaimer: the below scenario is a work of fiction, the result of a managed multi-player role-playing game. It does not represent reality in any way, shape or form. Additional descriptions of real-life events that have overtaken this narrative, will appear.

The Chinese dragon makes its first moves

On or before September 5, 2024, elements of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Cyberwarfare Corps launched an attack against the small islands of Matsu and Kinmen, which belong to Taiwan. Later, elements of the People’s Liberation Army Navy landed troops on both islands. President Biden “reacted decisively” (the report doesn’t say how), and the Chinese withdrew their forces. (Did he send the Seventh Fleet? The report doesn’t say.) This, plus the “typical post-Convention bounce,” brought Biden’s numbers even with Trump’s. Polling showed Trump with a slight Electoral Vote lead: 251-244, with 43 votes (Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) too close to call.

Rumors (source unspecified) had Chinese intelligence preparing to sabotage the election by multiple (unspecified) means. Accusations of “voter suppression” were rife, and the Biden administration even filed a lawsuit in the Eastern District of Michigan. The “suppression” consisted of “monitoring” activities. This actually refers to this real-life story about the Republican National Committee’s Election Integrity Task Force. This task force consists of accredited polling-place challengers (poll watchers) and sympathetic Officers of Election (poll workers). No voter suppression is intended – unless said voter suppression consists of deterrence or interception of electoral fraud.

The District Court enjoined the RNC’s Election Integrity Task Force. But on September 26, the Court of Appeals for the Sixth Judicial Circuit reversed, for lack of standing.

After Labor Day – more Chinese fire breath

While the appeal of the Michigan injunction was still pending, Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-Pa.) issued an executive order, ostensibly to address the shorthandedness of County Boards of Election in his State. He even authorized emergency precinct consolidation. This would result ultimately in longer lines at the polls. (It would also cause many voters to miss their chances at voting after they showed up at their precinct, only to find them unstaffed and indeed closed for any operations whatsoever.) Republicans, namby-pamby as they were, did not go to court to challenge this E.O.

Environmental activists “shut down port and rail access in Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle.” The Biden administration acted swiftly to reopen the ports and rail stations within a week.

The Chinese were not idle, either. They ran a major exercise in or near the Taiwan Strait. Now the report mentions the concrete measures in the Taiwan theater: fighter squadrons and Patriot missiles in Taiwan. The Chinese launched a cyberattack against Taiwan itself as a rejoinder. In the U.S., rumors had the Chinese building “Jungle Tiger” cells, apparently using young military-age southern border infiltrators.

Whether by reason of the action against the environmentalists, or the appearance of Chinese aggression, Biden started to lose votes. Trump now had a commanding lead, with 291 Electoral Votes, 21 more than he needed. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin now scored “lean Trump,” Virginia remained undecided, and Nevada became a toss-up.

Early voting period

Rumors abounded that the Justice Department would arrest Trump, in connection with January 6 activities, or the Florida documents case. The Justice Department denied the rumors. Some unnamed authority – maybe the Border Patrol – caught six illegal Chinese immigrants at the border. They had plans for a Texas water treatment facility on their persons. Were they a Jungle Tiger cell? No one knew.

A cyberattack on October 10 knocked out email access for regular elections personnel in 23 counties, spanning 17 States. The registrars involved had the email systems locked down, and reissued email passwords. They then had to remind the public that no compromise of Electronic Voting Machines had taken place.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court allowed the use of drop boxes. (In real life, this ruling has already gone down.)

On October 19, a shooter or shooters in Philadelphia killed several police officers in a deliberate attack against the police. Gov. Shapiro sent elements of the State Police and National Guard to the city.

Nationwide polling became even less certain, with Trump still ahead, but fallen below victory threshold. The vote total showed Trump leading 257-202, with 79 votes in “toss-up” States. These were Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Arizona. (Nevada went “likely Trump.”)

Election Day and beyond

Decision Desk called Ohio for Biden – until totals changed with the discovery of scanner-tabulator hacks. By morning, Trump had carried the State. In fact Trump had a one-vote victory: 271-231, with Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin too close to call. Trump carried Virginia with a margin of 7,000 votes. Democrats “lawyered up” in Virginia, alleging civil rights violations. A judge ordered continued vote counting in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties.

On November 7, Attorney General Garland did have Trump arrested, at the Mar-A-Lago estate. He charged him with insurrection and (again) with mishandling classified documents. Trump negotiated a house-arrest confinement – to Trump Tower in New York City. But the Justice Department did not cut off his Internet access. Trump held several “livestream” events, with millions of viewers. For reasons the report never explains, Garland filed an emergency petition with the Supreme Court. He sought to have Trump disqualified from holding office.

Left-wing activists breached the homes of Justices Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh two nights later, setting fire to Thomas’ home. Fortunately, neither Thomas nor Kavanaugh were at home at the time.

An intelligence community leak accused Trump’s associates of colluding with the Chinese Ministry of State Security.

On November 10, the Supreme Court released an emergency order. By a vote of 6-3 they denied Garland’s petition to enjoin Trump’s victory and vacated the warrant for Trump’s arrest. Whether any commentators regarded this as a backfire of the attacks on Thomas’ and Kavanaugh’s homes, the report didn’t say.

End of the process

All the legal maneuvering by Democrats, and the Biden administration, came to nothing. Trump carried Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The recounts in Arlington, Fairfax and Loudoun Counties cut Trump’s margin in Virginia to 2000 votes – still enough to win. So Trump finished the election with 326 electoral votes.

The left, failing in State circuit courts and the federal court system, turned to street violence. The Biden administration’s response to this violence was timid at best. (Because the report didn’t say where the violence broke out, it has no warrant to assume that State or local response would be just as timid. The Texas DPS and Rangers, for example, would move swiftly, and Gov. Greg Abbott might send the State Guard.)

Several bureaucrats announced their refusal to cooperate with the Trump Transition Team.

No one ever investigated whether those Jungle Tiger or other Chinese elements existed. Nor did anyone resolve the question of whether any of Trump’s associates cooperated with Chinese State Security.

Republicans captured the Senate, 56-44, and barely held the House, 220-215.

The scenario ends here; CNAV’s critique, a mixture of political analysis and literary criticism, follows.

A Chinese red herring!

In Game 2, the Heritage Foundation dragged a red herring, with Chinese markings, across the trail. They portrayed Chinese attacks on Taiwan’s outlying possessions, a cyberattack on Taiwan itself, and one near attack on American soil. Yet the report said not one word about whether anyone in Congress would introduce a declaration of war. The great Russian playwright Anton Chekhov once said:

If in the first act you introduce a gun, by the third act you have to use it.

The Heritage Foundation forgot that maxim – so Chinese interference, and rumors of same, became an unused Chekhov’s Gun. But that wasn’t the only flaw in this project. Heritage released their document on July 11, 2024. By then, several invalidating events had already overtaken their hypothetical narratives. They did acknowledge the Supreme Court’s Murthy v. Missouri decision. But they said nothing about the decisions in:

• Fischer v. United States (invalidating several January 6 prosecutions for obstructing official proceedings), and
• Trump v. United States (in which Chief Justice Roberts wrote a primer on Presidential immunity).

The second case especially would have given even Merrick Garland pause.

Concerning voter suppression: if any voter suppression is going on, Democrats are doing it. Your editor, as a Chief OOE during a recent primary, caught a Democratic Party under-the-tent campaigner telling a voter that the precinct was running a Democratic-only single-party primary. Which was a bald-faced lie.

The report did make some recommendations with which CNAV wholeheartedly agrees, but their scenario analysis leaves much to be desired. In the next installment, CNAV will sketch out a scenario of its own.