No Blue Wave Broke in Texas … Again

Ever since I was studying political science at the University of Houston in the 1970s, Democrats have been predicting that a blue wave would eventually sweep the Texas political landscape. Their hopes were pinned to the long-term demographic trend that Texas would eventually become a “minority majority” state and, of course, everyone knows that minorities are going to vote Democratic, right? Well, Texas became a minority majority state about 20 years ago and Democrats are still waiting on their blue wave.

Texas minority residents are voting … Republican!

Their hopes reached a fevered pitch in 2018, when Beto O’Rourke mounted a credible campaign that came within 2.5% of unseating Sen. Ted Cruz. That led Democrats to once again predict that this year a blue wave would sweep Texas and beat Cruz. Their hopes rested on Cruz’s unpopularity (half of Texans have an unfavorable view of him) and a belief they could capitalize on Texas’ restrictive abortion ban. Democrats nominated popular Dallas congressman and former NFL football linebacker, Colin Allred, to carry their standard.

The Democrats’ strategy largely rested on motivating young voters, especially young women – who have been relatively unengaged in previous elections – to show their opposition to the state’s abortion ban. Democratically aligned PACs closed out the campaign with a $5 million ad buy in the Cruz-Allred race, focusing on the abortion issue.

But instead of building on the close 2018 race, the Democrats’ nominee was blown away by nearly double digits. The defeat came notwithstanding that Democrats spent at least as much, if not more, than Republicans did. So, what ruined Texas Democrats’ day at the beach?

This was not the abortion election

First, the abortion issue flopped again for Democrats. In devising their strategy, Democrats read too much into polls that showed a wide majority of Texans oppose the abortion ban, at least in its current form. Texans are particularly opposed to the failure of the law to include an exception for rape and incest. A recent University of Texas poll found that 78% of Texans supported such an exception, at least, at some point during pregnancy.

However, if they had read that same poll a little more closely, they would have also learned that only 4% of Texans identified abortion as the most important issue in the election. Women and voters under 30 were only slightly higher at 6%. The economy and inflation were identified as the most important issue by a third of the respondents, with virtually no difference between men and women (35% vs. 32%). Immigration was the second highest at 14%. Abortion was a distant eighth.

Also, women under 30 make up only about a million of Texas’ 18 million registered voters and, of course, a fair number of those are pro-life. So, it is hard to understand how anyone ever thought this was going to be a winning strategy.

Texas jobs are fossil-fuel jobs. Duh!

The second problem for Democrats in Texas is that many of the positions they advocate are unpopular in the state. So, when Biden said during the debate that “I would transition from the oil industry …” what the half million people in Texas who work in oil and gas heard was “they are out for our jobs.” A person may prefer a more liberal abortion law but not at the expense of losing their job.

There was a time when political parties would allow their office holders and candidates the latitude on issues to represent the view of their district. The adage was, “Vote your district.” But with the ever-increasing partisan extremism in both parties, adherence to the party’s ideology has become a loyalty test. If a candidate does not pass that test, they may face a primary challenge and see the large donors who finance the party stop returning their calls.

As a result, Allred has been forced to cast votes that have put him out of step with most of his fellow Texans. For example, he supported Biden’s pause on new LNG export facilities. Exports of LNG have created thousands of jobs for Texans as well as new markets for a natural resource abundant in the state. Pretty odd vote for a member of Congress from Texas.

Democratic orthodoxy favors men in women’s sports

Allred also cast three votes which, at least arguably, would allow biological males who transitioned to female to compete in women’s sports. While transgender men competing in women’s sport is rare and hardly the most pressing issue Texans face, the notion is wildly unpopular in a state that loves its sports. Cruz was able to use Allred’s votes to tell voters, “He is not one of us.”

For years, Democrats have been banking on the growing Latino vote to turn Texas blue. But increasingly, the Democratic positions have been turning off Latinos. Democrats have particularly misread Latinos’ views on immigration. A recent University of Texas Poll (p.261) found that 48% of Texas Latinos strongly or somewhat agreed that undocumented immigrants should be deported.

As result of being at odds with Latinos in Texas, Democrats suffered a mass defection. Exit polling showed that Democrats went from winning Latinos 58%-41% in 2020 to losing the Latino vote by 44%-55% in 2024, a remarkable 28-point swing in just four years.

Unless the Democrats abandon their orthodoxy…!

It is hard to imagine, given its current philosophical bent, how the Democratic Party will ever be competitive in Texas. In addition to being culturally out of step with Texans generally, its antipathy for the state’s leading industry is particularly problematic. I wonder how much longer Democratic candidates, or more particularly Democratic consultants, are going to be able to convince large national Democratic donors that the phantom Texas blue wave is worth their investment.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.