New York pols talk secession

Donald Trump and ICE Director-designate Tom Homan’s plans for a mass deportation operation have given rise to astonishing speculation. A New York State Senator has actually floated the idea of withholding Federal income-tax collections from the federal government. Then she proposed the last thing anyone would have expected from a New York politician a year ago. She proposes secession from the Union – of not only New York but also Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut. This is an extraordinary statement that ignores not only the proportion of voters in those States who voted for President-elect Donald J. Trump, but also where they live. Any attempt to take New York – with or without Vermont and Massachusetts, or any part of those States – into Canada, will provoke either a class-action lawsuit, a mass exodus – or civil war.

Details of the New York secession discussion

Reportage on the loose talk of secession by New York comes from Politico, The Washington Examiner, and WorldNetDaily. It centers on remarks by State Sen. Liz Krueger (D-New York City), chair of the New York Senate Finance Committee. Mr. Homan has said flatly that any city or State that refuses to cooperate with the agency he will head, will face loss of federal funds.

That’s going to happen. I guarantee you. Tom Homan

In recent years, not a single State has qualified as a “net tax producer.” That was certainly not the case in 2020, at the height of the coronavirus “pandemic.” The New York State Comptroller’s Office studied this issue and produced this report of State balance-of-payments surpluses. It showed that, for every dollar New York sent to the federal government, it got $1.59 back.

That was 2020. World Population Review pointed out the obvious: the federal government was generous to all States during the “pandemic.” Not so today. In 2022, New York’s “return on federal taxes” fell to 74 cents. That makes New York a donor State, a thing that didn’t exist before.

Sen. Krueger didn’t go into this detail (and maybe her staff didn’t look this up for her). She spoke as if New York were tremendously dependent on federal funding, which is not the case. Or it shouldn’t be. According to Politico:

A steep cut in federal aid could be devastating for a state with a $239 billion budget that receives about $85 billion from Washington — much of it in Medicaid spending. New York sends about $362 billion in tax dollars to the federal government. “We’re talking a lot of money,” Krueger said. “We’re talking money we couldn’t possibly replace unless we started sending the feds a lot less money.”

Hence the first part of her floor speech: withholding tax and other revenues. But she did not say how she would accomplish that.

If not by tax withholding, then by secession

Neither New York nor any other State collects taxes for the federal government. The Internal Revenue Service collects taxes directly. So Sen. Krueger and any allies she might have, would be out of luck. Hence, the talk of secession – which Sen. Krueger actually mentioned back in September, according to City and State.

At first she proposed a mass migration of herself and her fellow leftists to Canada. But she acknowledged that the Canadian government would never accept so many immigrants at once. So she proposed creating a new Canadian province, comprising New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont.

We have land bridges. We have the Peace Bridge from Buffalo. Basically everybody in these states are progressive Democrats. We would fit in pretty well with the political philosophy of at least most of the Canadian elected officials. I propose that this could be an option, and I got back some unofficial responses and heard this is probably sellable in Ottawa. Sen. Liz Krueger (D-New York City)

Much of what she said, about her State being “filled with progressive Democrats,” is simply not true. Three sources of information make that abundantly clear. One is The Daily Wire’s Election Hub, showing, among other things, New York’s Republican representation in the House of Representatives. Another is this 2024 Election County-by-County map, from Tumblr.com.

The third is an interactive map that shows which counties voted which way, and by what margin. (Source: KTLA-TV, Channel 5, Los Angeles, California.)

Not even Massachusetts has all blue counties. Worse, most of Vermont’s red townships are along the U.S.-Canadian border. The only blue jurisdiction along the northern border is the city of Newport. Any attempt by Canada to annex Vermont will meet resistance – right where it can do the most damage.

New York has a special problem

And that’s even allowing that Vermont, Massachusetts and Connecticut have all-Democratic Senate and House delegations. New York has another problem: several of its Representatives are Republican. Worse, Districts 21, 23, and 24, which, among them, command most of New York’s border with Canada (or Lake Ontario), are Republican with 60 percent or more of the vote. Harris carried only Erie and Monroe Counties, which include the cities of Buffalo and Rochester, along the border. Trump carried Niagara County (next to the eponymous Falls) with 57 percent of the vote.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-21) carried her District with 62.3% of the vote. The other two border Representatives did better than that.

So Sen. Krueger cannot say that even “basically everybody” in her own State is a progressive Democrat. What, then, does she suppose will happen if the New York State Senate and Assembly pass a resolution of secession? One of three things will happen:

1. Forty-three percent of New Yorkers voted for Trump. They could all join a class-action federal lawsuit alleging conspiracy against rights. Secession, and joining Canada, would definitely harm them, by reason of the rights they would certainly lose. This includes the rights of free religion, free speech, and to keep and bear arms.
2. They could move, if they could bear to leave their land behind. Texas would likely make them more than welcome. (More on that below.) Or:
3. Residents of rural or “upstate” New York would fight a civil war.

Texas has the opposite consideration

Thus far the Texas Nationalist Movement has said nothing about a New York politician calling for secession. Perhaps they haven’t heard. But highlighting the hypocrisy of a Democratic politician in another State calling for secession would be an easy decision.

Dan Miller, head of TNM, dares the U.S. military to attack Texas, should Texas adopt a resolution of secession. Texas would have several advantages in comparison to New York:

1. In Texas, the rural population would want to secede; the urbans would want to stay.
2. Independent-minded Texans likely have all the guns; urban liberals are afraid of them.
3. Texas is over-represented in the military and is home to several military installations. Any attack on Texas would provoke crises of conscience that could split the military.

None of these advantages apply to New York. In fact, in each of those particulars, the situation would be reversed.And those Trump supporters likely have lost all respect for the Empire State’s unified court system.

The National Guard, most of whose members are probably those same rural folk, will likely not mobilize to force secession. That leaves the New York City and State Police Departments – and Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan gang. That gang is now recruiting migrant children in the City, according to Drew Hernandez of The Gateway Pundit.

Sen. Krueger is therefore either a troll, an ignoramus, or a maniac. None of these things well befits a Senator.