Submerged voters – Trump’s submarine command

People who make their money guessing how you will vote in elections have a new name for Trump voters. They call us submerged voters. On one hand, this bespeaks a climate of oppression, or at least the perception of it, that has just gone from awful to good grief. But on the other, it could mean the Democrats, or especially the pResident, have made a fatal mistake.

Submerged voters – who coined this term?

Mr. Robert C. Cahaly, head of polling for Trafalgar, coined this term submerged voters. He explained it on Twitter:

The Free Press and ProTrumpNews have transcripts:

In 2016 [Donald] Trump supporters were called “Deplorables” and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon that “most” polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.

In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with “Woke” culture found themselves being “canceled” or “doxed.” This led to “hidden voters” that “most” polling undercounted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.

Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.

I call this new group “submerged voters.”They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls. At this point, I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on “MAGA Republicans” has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.

The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these “submerged voters.”

What is he talking about?

He’s talking about That Speech, of course. Plus the Trump Raid, raids on other prominent Trump supporters, and internal memos calling half the country “domestic extremists.” This indeed has many of us who voted for Trump, waiting for a knock on the door. We then expect an initialism we now dread: “FBI.” That outfit is now a monster, and many of us, who remember when Pinkerton’s investigated most interstate crime, would sooner trust them for any real, crime-fighting function the FBI still serves.

And don’t think the FBI rank-and-file are copacetic with this, either! Current and former agents have come forward accusing the higher-ups of:

• Exaggerating the problem (if we even have one), and
• Labeling people as “white supremacists” to protect The Narrative.

We are kind of the lapdogs. We are the actual agents doing these kinds of investigations, trying to locate a crime that fits otherwise First Amendment-protected activity.

And Second Amendment activity, too. Do you fly a Gadsden “Don’t Tread On Me” flag? Do you own guns? Have you gone to a school board meeting lately and raised your voice against some “woke” nonsense or other? If so, watch out! They’ve Got Their Eye On You.

These are scenes right out of a failed TV pilot from 1967, titled Shadow On the Land.

And the Legacy Media have been and are their willing accomplices.

From ignored voters to submerged voters

We now turn to how voters for sane public policy can now call ourselves submerged voters. First the phrase ignored voters fit better. Pollsters routinely underweighted us and overweighted our opponents. Organizations like Gallup and Harris and Marist and especially Quinnipiac University sought to dampen conservative confidence. And they did. Nor did Senators John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah) help by running Presidential campaigns to lose.

Then Hillary called us “a basket of deplorables.” That made us shy voters, because we were shy about telling “just any average Joe” what we thought. But over time we heard this incredible man Trump – who might have sounded like a jerk sometimes (if the quotes from him are accurate) but had something on the ball that Hillary obviously did not. So Trump won.

In 2020 came Cancel Culture. People actually lost their jobs and even their bank accounts. That produced the hidden voter. But Trump still found more of us in 2020 than in 2016. Why did he lose anyway? Well, if you believe Biden, they found their own hidden voters who didn’t know how to vote. Now if the Democrats had governed as moderately as they said they would, they’d have no problem – if they’re correct.

But they didn’t. They knew they had a problem when they started to lose their baseline. The Virginia Pre-Midterm must have scared them.

From ignoring to direct attack

Mohandas Gandhi once said,

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

The Democrats went directly from “ignore” to “fight” and skipped over the laughing. Which probably means they can’t take a joke, much less make one. In any event, we got the National School Boards Association letter, and the FBI’s willing participation. Then the Trump Raid, and That Speech. So now, as Mr. Cahaly says, we are the direct subjects of law-enforcement attention. Hence the submerged voters, who will make every effort not to call attention to themselves. Why should we post our opinions on Facebook or Twitter anyway, knowing that those two platforms will take them down?

Although: the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals recently set up a split in the circuits over online censorship. After the Eleventh Circuit affirmed a lower-court ruling striking down a State anti-censorship law, the Fifth Circuit reversed a lower-court ruling to similar effect. That’s going to the Supreme Court. Bank on it. The Supreme Court never tolerates a split in the circuits for longer than a single term.

Reaction to the submerged voters concept

Reaction to the concept submerged voters signals agreement, with few serious observers willing to dispute it. “People’s Pundit” Rich Baris tweets:

Yes, call them an enemy of the state one month, and next month participation fall[s]. And those who do [take part] claim to be “undecided” across the board.

Whoa-a-a-a. Expect the “Undecided” to break Republican this Midterms, if that’s correct.

Here’s one from one who calls himself “independent.”

And another:

Here’s one who testifies to direct attacks by opposing voters:

And one who offered a stark reminder of a quote from the pResident in 2020:

So there you have it. Since the inauguration of President Trump, Trump’s voters have commonly used a railroad train as their symbol. Now, if Mr. Cahaly has guessed correctly (and the reaction shows that he has), Trump voters might take a new symbol – a submarine. The Navy calls submarines “the silent service,” for a good and obvious reason. Modern submarines are designed to run submerged for days, weeks, months at a time. So you don’t even know they’re there – until they’re ready to launch torpedoes. Or missiles, which can be even more devastating.

That’s the real metaphor for submerged voters. We’ll quietly go about our business, and will develop ways to tell when it’s safe to speak. (Usually that will happen when someone complains about inflation, shortages, and whatnot.) And then, at election time, we’ll surprise everyone.