The Second Civil War that almost happened – TIP 5

The Transition Integrity Project (TIP), as CNAV has said before, ran four distinct scenarios, all assuming popular discontent with Trump. Their last scenario (Game Three in the TIP Document) was the most dangerous: a breathtaking combination of wishful thinking and stone-cold evil refusal ever to accept Donald J. Trump as President of the United States for a second term. The danger lay, not in the initial conditions (though the combination in itself strained credulity). Rather, it lay in the moves – moves that, had they taken place, would have provoked a Second Civil War. And that game players in a think-tank would actually contemplate such moves, is the really sobering lesson of their “tournament.” Even more sobering, those players literally had no idea of the consequences those moves could have had.

Review of the Transition Integrity Project series

Again, the Transition Integrity Project series contains six articles before this one, discussing:

1. The full plans by the Democratic Party to ensure the installation of Biden by any means they deemed necessary,
2. The Transition Integrity Project itself, how it came to be, and what it assumed,
3. Predictions v. reality of the work-out of the Election of 2020 assuming its actual results (and that these were valid),
4. Predictions of how a narrower Biden win would have played out (and how realistic those predictions were),
5. The authorship, by one Samuel Arnes, of an incriminating document and how he had someone plant this on the Telegram account of a January 6 defendant, and:
6. Predictions of moves and outcomes for a Presidential election deadlock.

The Transition Integrity Project document described sixty-seven active players on seven teams, to wit:

1. Team Trump,
2. Team Biden,
3. Republican elected officials (Team GOP),
4. Democratic elected officials (Team Dem),
5. Career federal government employees (civilian and military) and political appointees (Team FedGov),
6. Team Media, and
7. Team Public, with “polling experts” as proxies for the public.

This article is Part Five, with the article about the Democratic Party full plans being Part Zero. (The article about Samuel Arnes does not count, but we include it because Arnes likely drew inspiration from TIP.) CNAV has reviewed three of the four TIP games, in order of increasing strength of Trump’s position after the election.

The no-cheat assumption

Why the TIP document arranged the four games as it did, the authors (the directors) never made clear. Game One had the “ambiguous” results, Game Two a “clear” Biden win, and Game Four a “narrow” Biden win. In fact, Game Two’s initial conditions came closest to those the Federal Elections Commission reported, i.e., Biden winning the:

• Electoral College, 306 to 232, and
• Popular vote, 81.3 million to 74.2 million.

As CNAV has said before, the truth or falsity of these results is another debate. TIP assumed no actionable or effective fraud in the running of elections. Thus it was never any part of their game play to say that Team Biden collaborated with Team Dominion (as in Voting Services) to:

• Mis-program the voting machines,
• Disable security features that required only a certain weight or “bond” of paper to be loaded,
• Recruit “2000 Mules” to deliver batches of mail-in ballots to unattended drop boxes,
• Bring other batches of ballots into polling places in snack trucks (or give them to Officers of Election to smuggle in using their “suitcases”),
• Arrange for special shipments of ballots across State lines using United States Postal Service trucks, or
• Do any of a number of other shenanigans to which witnesses have attested at various times.

But if such cheating was never a part of TIP game play, it was definitely the game plan after the document came out.

Game Three and the Second Civil War

Nevertheless, TIP assumed no fraud – and thus no ability to commission fraud, by either side. So it assumed these results by the end of Election Night or perhaps a day later:

• Trump winning in the Electoral College, 286 to 252, and
• Biden winning the popular vote, 52 percent to 47 percent.

The only way that could happen would be if Pennsylvania, alone among the States Trump carried in 2016, “flipped.” Pennsylvania had 20 electoral votes at the time, and Trump carried it by a narrow margin – 1.2 percent. Even so, Trump fell behind Hillary Clinton by 1.2 million votes. Had Hillary carried Pennsylvania, she still would have lost, and her popular vote total would not have increased by much.

Very likely, as soon as Trump let Anthony S. Fauci, M.D., persuade him to let any governors lock their States down, he forfeited the election by that very act. Not only did the lockdowns destroy the economy, but they also gave Secretaries of State the perfect excuse to violate every concept of election security.

Nevertheless, Trump needed to retain Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, even if he lost Pennsylvania. Had he done that, he would have been much closer in the popular vote – down by four percent or less. In fact he was down by 4.6 percent, to two significant digits.

So right away this scenario is unrealistic, but not by much. The vituperative reactions that followed could have happened with such a low margin.

Teams Trump and GOP lose popular support

Team Trump began the game with two objectives: “legitimatize” the electoral vote and consolidate Trump’s power. Protests arose throughout the country – as some did in 2016. But the TIP Document said Team Trump salted these protests with agents provocateurs,with violence as the inevitable result.

For consolidation, Team Trump:

• Selectively promoted certain officers with views the TIP document described as “pro-American” (with quotes in place),
• Rushed several judicial nominations through marathon sessions of the Senate,
• Offered “financial incentives” to the country’s largest businesses, and
• Made sure to get census results to State legislatures in time for redistricting.

Team GOP generally supported “crackdowns” on the violent protests but did not support the power consolidation efforts as strongly.

Team Biden revoked its concession, and pressed the governors of North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Michigan to call for recounts. North Carolina did nothing – but the governors of Wisconsin and Michigan sent alternate elector slates to Washington, D.C.

The House at this time was still under Democratic control historically. Game Three assumed that the House would stay under Democratic control, though perhaps the Senate would not “flip” Democratic. The House Democratic Conference attacked the Electoral College, on the basis of doubts in Wisconsin and Michigan. But they also suggested that “voter suppression” had been the order of the day in both States. Inferring this last is difficult because the document refers to “these States” but does not name them.

Setup for the Second Civil War

In mid-November, the States of California, Oregon and Washington sent resolutions of secession to Congress. Barack Obama (which the TIP document mentions by name) helped Team Biden draw up a list of four specific demands. The secessionists pressed these in their posture to Congress:

1. Grant Statehood to Puerto Rico and to the District of Columbia.
2. Divide California into five States, each entitled to send its own Senate delegation.
3. Mandate that Justices of the Supreme Court retire by the age of 70. Under that rule, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito would both have to retire.
4. Abolish the Electoral College. That definitely would require a Constitutional amendment.

Team Trump was having none of that, and concentrated on fracturing the inherently fragile Democratic coalition. (All team players agreed on that fragility.) Team Trump actively provoked Team Biden into supporting secession and other “radical” moves.

Came January 6, and the House of Representatives actually voted to accept the alternative votes of Michigan and Wisconsin. This would have meant a Biden win. But Vice-President Pence and Team GOP rejected this out-of-hand. The result was the strangest of all game play results:

… January 20 arrived without a single president-elect entitled to be Commander-in-Chief after noon that day. It was unclear what the military would do in this situation.

Translation: the Second Civil War had begun.

Back to reality

The TIP Directors make the same tired canard: “voter suppression.” This strongly suggests that they were planning to cheat, by voting in the names of the dead and the move-outs. (Or if they weren’t, someone else was.) They also ignored another key fact of the 2020 Presidential campaign. In 2016, Donald J. Trump was an unknown quantity. Not so in 2020.

Again, the Directors refused to consider electoral cheating. But suppose Republican office holders had been as fanatical as the TIP Directors assumed? Or Trump had made better choices of running mate and Cabinet officers from the start? Suppose Trump had ordered the Swedish option to deal with COVID-19? Or dealt decisively with the biological weapons development laboratories in Ukraine long before Vladimir V. Putin would feel the need? Then Trump would have carried every State he carried in 2016, and possibly Minnesota and Nevada also. And we also would be seeing Trump win the popular vote. As he bids fair to do in 2024, if the ABC-WaPo poll is any indicator. But the TIP Directors refused to believe in any such scenario; else they would have run it.

Turning now to the salting of “peaceful protests” with agents provocateurs: first, the legacy media always called the Black Lives Matter protests “peaceful,” when in fact none of them were. Second, Trump never salted a protest with agents provocateurs. But on January 6, 2021 (real life), the FBI did.

Consolidation of power

Trump could, and probably should have selectively promoted senior military officers with pro-American, not globalist, views. Rushing through extra judicial nominations would have been more difficult. But: suppose, for our purposes, that the widespread cheating that defrauded Trump of victory, did not occur? Suppose also that Trump had shown better judgment in endorsements and willingness to support endorsees? Then the Republicans would have held the Senate outright. Senator David Perdue would have held his seat outright, without a runoff. And perhaps a governor other than Brian Kemp would have appointed Doug Collins, not Kelly Loeffler. Then Collins would have won his race outright. And, to be safe, Vice-President Pence would have spent a great deal of time presiding over the Senate, to break “Murkowski Ties.”

Goading the Census Bureau into getting out results on time would have been critical to Midterms. But financial incentives to large corporations just because they were large, would not have been wise. (Trump would surely know that large corporations lose their loyalty to their countries, and pledge their loyalties to one-world government entities and advocates, like the World Economic Forum.) Nor is that a safe assumption to make – it’s just another socialistic canard from people with a socialistic bent.

A word about Statehood for the District of Columbia

Granting Statehood to Puerto Rico would require a simple up-or-down vote. Not so Statehood for the District of Columbia, given Article I, Section 8, Clause 17a of the Constitution, which reads:

The Congress shall have Power … To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States.

One proposal carves out all the federal buildings in metropolitan Washington as “the District of Columbia” and grants Statehood to the doughnut-like residential and commercial quarter that would remain. But many people would fear that the “doughnut” would exist under the shadow of the President and his administration.

Second Civil War – let them be careful what they wish for!

The TIP Directors had no idea what they were proposing, when they recommended secession for California, Oregon, and Washington State. Because the minute any such resolutions of secession became public, other secession movements would come to the fore. These would be interstate secession movements, of which two are relevant: Greater Idaho, and New California.

Now imagine how the Second Civil War would break out before January 6, 2021. Oregon passes a resolution of secession – and an Oregon-based militia declares independence for all lands east of the Cascades. They might join Idaho – or form a new State called, say, “East Cascadia.” New California would split off at once, to become a new State. And a State of Jefferson would form from several northern California and southern Oregon counties.

In fact, western Maryland – and a large portion of Virginia – might want to join West Virginia. The Virginia Pre-Midterm of 2021 would not have taken place. So western Virginia counties would still be steamed from the gun-control regime of Gov. Ralph Northam (D-Va.). But Virginia’s and Maryland’s legislatures would balk – whereupon State Senators and Delegates would start obstructing legislative process, as in Oregon. “Let us go, and we’ll be out of your hair,” they would say. The point might carry.

One secession movement might not gin up: Texas. The Texas Nationalist Movement might decide to try to help shape a United States more to their liking. Texas militias might even send volunteers to fight in Greater Idaho, New California, and Jefferson.

An alternate January 6, with our without a Second Civil War

So California, Oregon, and Washington State would secede, all right – and lose all their lands east of the Cascades and the Sierras, and a portion of Pacific coastline besides. Secretary of State Pompeo would revoke recognition of their House delegations. Only House members from Greater Idaho, New California, and Jefferson would have any say in certifying the election. Very likely the House would have “flipped” anyway – as it almost did in real life. New California would send two conservatives to the Senate instead of Senators Feinstein and Hochul. Likewise, two Senators each from Oregon and Washington would disappear, and two new Senators from Jefferson would take their seats. After that, certification of a second Trump term would be a cinch.

One more observation we must make, is that the TIP game players cannot have had any active-duty military officers. If they could not predict what the military would do, then they didn’t have officers to tell them. Result: Trump wins, western California adds “Alta” to its name and joins Mexico, and Oregon and Washington State become a new Canadian Province of Cascadia.

That last is not necessary. When TIP’s game players suggested secession, they were likely talking through their hats. No doubt the governors of California, Oregon and Washington State would know better. T hey would not care to risk losing their territories to new (or enlarged) States of New California, Greater Idaho, or Jefferson. So: no leverage, no complaints – and Trump wins anyway.

Conclusion

But as we all know, Trump did not win. Game Two (“clear Biden win”) was the scenario close to actual fact – which, we maintain, is fact someone made happen. As CNAV has said before, every nefarious, win-at-all-costs motive TIP attributed to Trump, was true of them. And truer still of their masters.

Trump faces another election. The ridiculous charges against him are of no practical moment. They only enhance his popularity, something TIP never modeled because they could never imagine it. But to win, Trump must indeed be as ruthless as TIP said he was – though he need not salt crowds with agents provocateurs. (Let him leave that to the FBI.) He must also fully own his mistakes in judgment, including on COVID-19. If “blue States” want to secede, let them. But more likely, firmness of purpose will carry the day, if he can show it.