Philly Is Where the GOP Can Grow in 2024 and Beyond

Because of the shifting of base voters in both parties, because of changing demographics, because of inflation, because of the refusal of the city’s district attorney to fight crime – and, yes, because of the outreach of former president Donald Trump, Republican vote totals will likely grow in Philadelphia in 2024.

Trump made gains – including reaching out to Philadelphia

And the GOP might just elect a state senator and a new state representative in a city where Democrats hold an 8-1 voter-registration advantage. If Republicans – local, state, and national –are paying attention, they can grow even more in 2025 and beyond.

Statewide, Pennsylvania moved from a one-point 2016 Trump victory to a slightly over one-point win for Joe Biden in 2020, but Trump grew his support in one Clinton-to-Biden county in 2020: Philadelphia, where he improved by three points. Exit polls suggested that not only had Trump made headway among black Philadelphians, but just as important, he had expanded his support among Russian, Ukrainian, Pakistani, and Indian-Americans. National and state polling suggest that Trump will in 2024 will grow his vote totals with all of those groups – and especially among Hispanic Americans. The only question is how much.

This is because Trump and the GOP are focused on the issues that these voters care about.

In Philadelphia, inflation is a leading issue – and the higher gasoline, grocery, and utility bills that come with it. Violent crime and shoplifting are on the rise. Residents can see that Philadelphia public schools are disproportionately unsafe and failing academically. They are so objectively bad that charter schools in the city have waiting lists of over 30,000 students. Thousands of children are also on waiting lists to get Pennsylvania Education Tax Credit scholarships that would give them the resources to go to a Catholic or other non-public school.

The Democrats ignored ordinary people

Add this all together, and it shouldn’t be surprising that voters are looking for change. The Democrats have – fill in the blank – failed them, ignored them, or taken them for granted. Maybe all three.

The missing ingredient has been effective, sincere, and ongoing outreach by the GOP – outreach that I and a few others have urged more Republicans to do. With one key exception: no one has been more focused on these voters than Donald Trump.

But there is more.

There are 50 state senators in Pennsylvania. Half are up for election every two years. Of the 25 senate seats up for election in 2024, only a handful are seen as competitive. Arguably, the most competitive senate seat is in Philadelphia.

The GOP nominee is Joe Picozzi, 29, the hardest-working challenger in Pennsylvania. (My in-laws met him at a supermarket where he was greeting voters and helping carry their groceries to their cars.) He faces the “accidental” incumbent, Democrat Jimmy Dillon, who is running for his first full term after obtaining the seat when his brother, the would-be senator, misfiled his paperwork.

Dillon has been a go along to get along first-term Democrat. He’s rarely in the news, except when he wishes he weren’t: as with an outstanding warrant and other not so glowing news.

A possible Republican State Senate flip

No Republican has won this state Senate seat since 1996. If Picozzi and his coalition of working-class voters, parents, and first- and second-generation Americans wins, he will not only be a breath of fresh air but will also have charted a path forward for his party.

One who hopes to follow a similar path on Election Night, but this time into the state House of Representatives, is Aizaz Gill. Gill is a Pakistani immigrant who came to America at the age of nine. He and his family have embraced America, and they have an almost storybook, quintessential American story. Gill is president of his neighborhood association and has worked in government and in the community. He is campaigning door to door.

All of Pennsylvania’s 203 House seats are on the ballot, and, as with the State Senate, a very small portion are competitive. And, again, a seat in Philadelphia is one of them. This is in part because Gill is a tireless and appealing candidate and in part because Democrats can’t seem to get their act together.

The seat that Gill is pursuing is held by Kevin Boyle, brother of Democratic U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle. Kevin, however, has had a series of personal issues. He lost his primary to another member of Philadelphia’s Democrat oligarchy: Sean Dougherty. So now, it’s an open seat: Gill vs. Dougherty.

Gill and Picozzi are focused on “kitchen-table” issues – crime, schools, and inflation. The voters in Philly can relate.

Watch Philadelphia

On Election Night, Republicans might make major gains in, of all places, overwhelmingly Democratic Philadelphia. The Pennsylvania Senate GOP may actually pick up a seat in Philly, and control of the Pennsylvania State House – currently at 102-101, Democrat – may be flipped by a Pakistani-American Republican.

In an era where the only thing to expect is the unexpected, Philadelphians may show Pennsylvania and national Republicans a path forward for growth, success, and victory.

This article was originally published by RealClearPennsylvania and made available via RealClearWire.