Trump Show Comes to Dallas. Now Comes the Hard Part

DALLAS—In the days before the Republican midterm convention here, political operatives said the purpose would be to rally party support and bring the attention of apathetic voters to the coming election. The two-day event achieved the first, but the second goal is a harder sell.

The challenge for Trump: the midterm curse

The president’s party has lost seats in Congress in around 90% of midterm elections since 1946. Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush were notable exceptions, largely due to a strong economy and high approval ratings, respectively.

President Trump has neither. His approval rating is 18 points underwater according to the latest RealClearPolitics Average. Inflation remains around 3%, and while job growth has been strong, the ongoing Iran war and trade tensions with Canada have contributed to some market uncertainty.

With Republicans needing to defend 26 vulnerable seats in the House and six in the Senate, Democrats are favored to pick up seats in both chambers. Democrats have a 6.4% lead in the latest generic congressional ballot.  

As there was no need for nominations at this convention, the only real news out of the event was Trump’s plan to send stimulus checks to every American adult – but only if Republicans win both houses in November. Aside from that gambit, which critics described as a budget-busting bribe, the benefit for the GOP was the spectacle and the resulting 30-second clips on social media to start ringing the final bells of the midterm cycle. Party leaders are hopeful the momentum both wakes up voters and re-engages the same base that elected Trump in 2024. The strategy has its skeptics.

Low-propensity voters

“The idea that Trump’s engagement at this level with the election is going to result in a re-engagement amongst sort of the hardest to mobilize elements of his coalition is a totally untested premise,” Texas Politics Project director of research Joshua Blank told RealClearPolitics. “Low-propensity voters are low-propensity voters because they’re not really that engaged,” the pollster added. “They’re not paying attention. They’re not locked in. And the real challenge with this convention is: Are they even going to notice?”

The convention scheduling itself was a risk for the White House. Typically, party conventions are held in late summer – early enough so they don’t interfere with holidays and the academic year, but close enough to the election that voters start to pay attention. The two-day Texas rally competed with school schedules, immediately followed Labor Day, and ran concurrently with the first football games of the NFL season. The New York Times reported that Trump’s prime-time speech on Wednesday received about 2.5 million views on Fox News, less than the nightly Gutfeld and Hannity viewership. However, the ratings for all major networks will not be released until next week.

In 2024, nearly 64% of eligible voters cast a ballot in the presidential election, up from 46% in the 2022 midterm. Most midterm elections have hovered around 40% engagement from all eligible voters since 2002, according to Ballotpedia.

Seats were available

Trump also repeatedly claimed that the arena was “filled to the rafters” with “thousands waiting outside to get in.” He said this as much of the top level of the arena remained empty. Seating was available to both the press and attendees. The arena itself can seat around 21,000 for concerts, depending on the floor configuration. The 2024 RNC in Milwaukee’s Fiserv Forum gathered around 50,000 attendees and visitors. Prior to this convention, the RNC had given out 20,000 tickets, according to a spokeswoman.

Trump is banking not necessarily on adding new voters to the GOP but on simply repeating his success of 2024. In that election, he won the popular vote and all seven swing states. That math also works for the midterms if the same voters return to the polls this November. To accomplish this, the president practiced some unusual get-out-the-vote efforts. On night one, he promised to mail $5,000 checks to all American adults if Republicans keep the majority in the House and the Senate. Separately, the White House released a statement and a video on Thursday morning announcing the administration would refund $500 to one million Americans who were overcharged Obamacare fees under the Biden administration. On night two, Trump led the convention crowd in a pledge. He directed them to raise their right hands and repeat after him:

I pledge to the greatest president in the history, that loves us so much he can’t even breathe, that I will go out with my family, my friends [and vote].

Delegates recognize the challenge

He then digressed to a discussion of election security and joked that people can vote Democrat as long as they get out and vote. But then he returned to the topic of saving the country via GOP means.

If you vote, you’re voting Republican. Okay. So help me God. So help me God. You know what happens if you don’t vote? You go to hell.

Many of the delegates, along with assorted state and local lawmakers, closed out the convention feeling energized but recognized the daunting task ahead.

“History would say the odds are stacked against us, but I’m still at an eight,” Oklahoma Republican Party Chairwoman Charity Linch told RCP of her confidence on a scale of 1 to 10 on whether Republicans can keep the majority. “Republicans can do these rallies, which is great, but then they absolutely still need to get involved in their communities and get involved with voting because we have to take the country back,” she said. “We can’t just talk about it.”

“Trump is still very popular within the Republican Party, but he’s overseen an economy that people are very unhappy with,” Blank noted. “Making himself the center of the election in some ways seems like he’s helping Democrats stay on their message because he’s putting himself into voters’ considerations while Democrats can just continue to talk about the economy, cost of living and other things.”

Trump and his heir

Looking beyond November, the convention also showcased Vice President JD Vance in a role as prospective heir to Trump’s MAGA coalition. Vance often says that he is only focused on winning the Republican majority, which he repeated again Thursday night when the crowd broke into chants of “28!” and “48!” while he spoke. Trump himself has previously teased that he could endorse either his vice president or Secretary of State Marco Rubio. But the arena was buzzing when Vance took the stage. While Trump brought the bravado and the entertainment, Vance appeared to bring the ethos as he discussed an American birthright and how he wanted to protect it.

“We know that the country does not belong to the radicals,” Vance said. “It does not belong to the bureaucrats. It does not belong to the highest bidder. This country was handed down to us by our parents and their parents before them. We received this national birthright, and we are going to fight for it by electing Republicans.”

With only seven weeks until the midterm elections, the White House plans to kick campaign season into overdrive. Vance will be in Kansas this week, and Trump has promised to take his same convention message to all 35 competitive House and Senate races. On Wednesday, he will start by stumping for North Carolina Senate candidate and former RNC chair Michael Whatley.

Is every voter a low-propensity voter?

“Every voter by definition is a low-propensity voter. So you know that model that we built at the RNC for ’24 is going to work very well for ’26,” Whatley told RCP. He said the convention messaging in Dallas may have revolved around Trump, but elements are applicable for all Republican candidates.

“The [2024] Milwaukee convention really galvanized the entire Republican movement around the core issues that the campaign was about. And like 2024, this year’s election is really about a contrast between the Republican agenda,” he added, “and the Democrats’ agenda, which is tilting towards socialism and communism.”

Messages

Other mainstage speakers pressed the same message. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. noted the irony of his own presence. The first convention he ever attended was the Democratic National Convention in 1960 when he was six years old. Kennedy abandoned the Democratic Party in 2024 before he ran for president as an independent.

“Ours was a party of strong principles, of clear policies, and an inspiring idealistic vision for America,” Kennedy said. My uncle ran on a platform of tax cuts, strong defense, and fighting communism. Does that sound familiar?”

Senate hopeful Mike Rogers of Michigan decried his opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, and his connections with provocative influencer Hasan Piker. House Speaker Mike Johnson forecast that Democrats will try to repeal every one of Trump’s actions, including tax cuts. Both he and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said this year is “the most important midterm election” in history.

Whether voters were listening or believe the GOP’s message won’t be clear until November.

This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.