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Will Iran and Israel widen their war?

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday, the 19th day of April in the year of our Lord 2024. I will be talking about the recent attacks by Iran against Israel and discussing the growing violence with an emphasis on the Israeli decision of whether to retaliate again and if so how.

My beat is war

Yes, my beat is war this week and there is no shortage of war to talk about. The powers that be love their wars and so they tend to make them happen. There are other issues, of course, like the criminal trial of Donald Trump by George Soros funded proxies in New York City. But war trumps everything, no pun intended. I will also take this introductory paragraph to remind you that there will be no Castle Report next week since I will be attending the Constitution Party National Convention. If you are there look me up, I would love to talk with you.

I also remind you that yesterday, the 18th of April was the 82nd anniversary of the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo and other Japanese cities. The 80 men who took part are all dead now. But I take this moment to honor their act of courage and sacrifice.

War in the Middle East – Iran v. Israel

Yes folks, I know this news must be shocking to you but there’s war in the Middle East. President Biden did his best to stop it with one word but it hasn’t worked so far. However, his word serves as the title of this Castle Report. Don’t was the one-word warning given by the President of the United States regarding whether Iran would attack Israel. I suppose that word was meant to convey the message that the president is a tough guy and not someone to be trifled with. The Iranians apparently did not get the message. Because over last weekend they launched hundreds of attack drones and cruise missiles against Israel.

The Iranians said the attack was in retaliation and a “punishment” for the Israeli attack of April 1 against the Iranian Consulate in Damascus Syria which killed 7 Iranians including two general officers. The Israelis said that attack was in response to the October 7, 2023, attack by the Iranian proxy group, Hamas, against Israel in which some 1400 Israelis died. It seems that one Middle East country or another is retaliating for something just about every day of the week. The nations of the Middle East seem to be run by people who can never forget anything. So consider these examples for a moment.

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Bitter examples

1953, the CIA and British Mi6 helped Iranian royalists depose the elected Iranian president, Mossadegh in a military coup code named Operation Ajax, like the cleaner. The Shah was allowed to extend his power and ruled as absolute monarch for more than two decades. That is, until the Iranian Revolution in 1979 in which Ayatollah Khomeini was reinstalled as leader. You probably remember the hostage crises resulting from all that intrigue. But the point is this was all about regime change in Iran to a regime more suitable to the U.S. And I think that is still the case.

When the U.S. signed the Algiers Accords ending the hostage crises it agreed to never again participate in regime change against whatever regime ruled Iran. The Mullahs have been clinging tenaciously to power ever since, constantly retaliating for one thing or another. The most recent attack against Israel was retaliation for the April 1 attack against the Iranian Damascus Consulate as I said, but also for the January 3, 2020, killing in Baghdad of General Qusem Soleimani. The general was a very important Iranian leader and a beloved figure in Iran.

The latest example, in the last year of Trump

That attack was conducted by the U.S. and was reportedly personally signed off on by President Trump. Was it ordered by Israel? I’m sure the Iranians think it was, and so we continue in an endless cycle of retaliation and violence. Where will it all lead or what will happen next? Because each act requires something even worse as retaliation. A region-wide war or something even worse seems inevitable. The Israeli attack against the Iranian Consulate killed 7 including 2 senior defense officers. One of them is believed to have trained and planned the Hamas attack against Israel of October 7. Under International Law, embassies, consulates, and other diplomatic structures are sovereign territory. So an attack against one could be said to be an attack against Iran itself. So, a direct attack against Iranian soil had to be retaliated against, and the cycle of war and violence continues.

Did Iran give warning?

The Iranians reportedly passed on a message to the U.S. through Turkey that the attack was coming. So it was known 3 days in advance. And a coalition of NATO and Middle East countries made ready to intercept it. President Biden apparently told the Iranians, O.K. but your response must be “measured.” So, on one hand he supposedly says don’t, but on the other hand he says it must be measured. I suppose that was all so those people running countries in the Middle East could keep their manhood. In any event, because of the 3-day warning the attack had little or no chance of succeeding. Perhaps the attack had motives too subtle for me to discern.

According to The Jerusalem Post, no drones or cruise missiles breached Israeli airspace. The only casualty was a seven-year-old girl from a Bedouin village who was seriously wounded. I guess I’m just too soft to ever be a leader of nations. Because to me that little girl is worth it all. Isn’t she a representative of all of humanity? We just want to live our lives, but these “leaders” must be allowed to keep their manhood. The last report I had about the unnamed girl was that she was still in intensive care and her life was still at issue.

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Iran has more enemies among the Arabs

The regional alliance coming out of the Abraham Accords is apparently still intact despite all the conflict. Virtually all countries in the Middle East have been very critical of Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks. They all criticize Israel in the press for the way Israel has dealt with Gaza and the Palestinians. But when Iran attacks, they respond to help defend Israel. If I were an Iranian official that would alarm me. Because it would tell me that I could end up fighting not only Israel, but NATO and the entire Middle East region.

United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Jordon, Egypt, Morrocco, and unofficially, Saudi Arabia, all came to Israel’s aid. I doubt if they love Israel. But its obvious they hate the Shia Mullahs in Iran more than they hate Israel. Perhaps all the rumors that they fear Israel intends to spread all over the region in what is usually called “greater Israel” are just that, nothing but rumors. They must believe that those stories are just nonsense, but Iran is another matter. They apparently fear that the Mullahs intend to spread their brand of Shia Islam across the Middle East. And that would threaten the ruling elite of all those countries.

Lessons from history

Those countries all hated the Shah because he was an absolute dictator as they all are, and too secular. They thought the Shah’s nihilistic approach to religion and his friendly relations with the West would spread region-wide. So they wanted him gone. They fear the Mullahs because they are absolute dictators and too religious. Can a person be too Islamic for Saudis? Apparently so. Many in the region including especially Mohammad bin Salman in Saudi Arabia, but also the Gulf Arab States are trying to modernize and take steps into the 21st century. But the Mullahs said no we will remain in the 8th century except with nuclear weapons.

I guess I got a little carried away with Middle East history but, I suppose a little background doesn’t hurt. This report is about Israel and its perspective on what happened. Keep in mind that Israel is a tiny country of about 9 million people which is surrounded by hundreds of millions of potential enemies. Regional alliances and a live and let live attitude are vitally important at this point in the 76 years of today’s version of Israel. The people in the Middle East have notoriously long memories. So I would wager there are people there who are waiting to retaliate for slights that happened 1000 years ago. That is why this regional coalition is so important for stability today. And why I would advise the Israelis to consider that when they plan their next round of retaliation.

We don’t need a big “rumble.”

It all sounds like some version of The Godfather or some other American mob movie and there are certainly similarities. I’m not saying don’t retaliate, I’m just saying consider these other nations when you do. They will retaliate, those Israelis, because The Jerusalem Post says they must. I don’t know if the Israeli media is like the American media whereby it is just the propaganda arm of the regime spewing out regime propaganda daily but it could be.

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The Jerusalem Post in its headline of April 16 said,

In a decisive moment like this, Israel has to reaffirm its strength by striking back.

The article goes on to criticize leadership for being unwilling to escalate. The Post admits that the threats Israel now faces go beyond its borders and could have global implications. I imagine that is a reference to the constant American habit of criticizing Israel and urging restraint while going soft on Iran. The going soft includes the desperate efforts to reinstitute the Iranian nuclear deal and the release of $10 billion in Iranian funds that had been confiscated by sanctions.

Too much big talk

For example, the Biden administration made it clear that the United States would not participate in any offensive action against Iran should Israel choose to retaliate for the hundreds of drones and missiles fired at its territory.

We don’t seek a war with Iran. We’re not looking for escalation here.

That’s how national security spokesman John Kirby expressed it to NBC News on April 14. My guess is that the U.S. agreed to allow the Iranian attack and to stand down if it was measured. That way under Biden rules, all the affected parties would be able to keep their manhood. The administration apparently thought Israel would give in and follow its directive. But the Israelis have a mind of their own it seems.

Remember when shortly after October 7 U.S. Senator Lindsay Graham told the Iranians that if they or Hezbollah fired missiles at Israel the U.S. would give the President the authorization to use force which is today’s way of saying declare war? That would then result in a U.S. attack against Iran’s capacity to pump, refine, and ship its petroleum products. None of that happened – and speaking of keeping your manhood, how about keeping your mouth shut at least occasionally.

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Israel’s newspaper of record wants to hit Iran at its nuclear sites

The Jerusalem Post advises retaliation because it believes Iran was trying to isolate Israel and fracture the Sunni alliance that had been forged while using it as cover to continue development of its own military capabilities and nuclear capabilities. Here is what the Post thinks the Israeli government should do:

Israel’s strategic response to such provocations needs to be as calculated as it is decisive. According to the Post’s military correspondent Yonah Bob, the Israeli military’s use of advanced F-35 stealth fighters to penetrate deep into Iranian territory and target key nuclear sites is a testament to the high stakes involved. Such an operation would likely involve complex navigational challenges possibly requiring flights over hostile or contested territories such as Syria, Iraq, or even the Persian Gulf.

So, I take that to mean that the Post is advising through editorial, the Israeli military to use fighter jets acquired from the U.S. to attack Iran’s nuclear sites. Appeals for restraint poured in from around the world as world leaders expressed fear of a wider conflict. That would present an opportunity for Israel to save face by saying, O.K. out of respect for the wishes of our friends who helped us repel this attack we will exercise restraint. However, the chief of the Israeli armed forces vowed to respond anyway.

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with his War Cabinet late Monday to discuss all options available to them. The U.S. appealed to China to intercede with its friends in Iran. But the Chinese said the Iranians could handle the situation on their own. In other words, from China, this is not our fight its your fight, but we will be there to profit from the mess you make.

Conclusion

Finally, folks, the coming Israeli response, I predict, will commit the nation to be permanently at war. Unlike U.S. war permanence where the Military Industrial Complex allows Washington to fight in other people’s as long as they get the money, the Israelis would be fighting right in their own neighborhood for as long as they exist. I just hope the little Bedouin girl recovers and is able to tend her goats.

At least that’s the way I see it.

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Until Friday, May 3, 2024,

This is Darrell Castle.

From CastleReport.us; appears by arrangement – Ed.

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Attorney at Law at | dlcastle@castlereport.us | Website | + posts

Darrell Castle is an attorney in Memphis, Tennessee, a former USMC Combat Officer, 2008 Vice Presidential nominee, and 2016 Presidential nominee. Darrell gives his unique analysis of current national and international events from a historical and constitutional perspective. You can subscribe to Darrell's weekly podcast at castlereport.us

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