Will Trump flip New York?

Will President Donald J. Trump actually carry the State of New York? That has become an open question – and given the State’s electoral history, that’s a miracle. How could a State with the largest city in the country – a city seemingly built on government handouts – a city at least as close as, if not closer than, any other city in America to creating New Communist … well, one mustn’t say Man anymore … turn away from that goal, seemingly at the last second? What has possessed the people in that city and State? Today many people are asking that question. Most of those asking it are RANTING AND RAVING AND SCREAMING IT AT THE TOP OF THEIR LUNGS. Usually people who behave that way have none to blame but themselves for their predicament. So it is with the Democratic Party today.

Political and demographic history of New York

New York State has a population of about 19.6 million, making it the fourth most populous State in the Union. And that, is a come-down. The 2020 Census recorded a population of 20.2 million. New York State has lost more than three percent of its population since that Census. The last time New York lost any of its population was before the 1980 Census, which recorded 3.7 percent fewer people in the State than the 1970 Census.

More than half the people in the State live in the City of New York, or on Long Island. Most of those vote Democratic. In fact the distribution of Party loyalties follows the nationwide pattern: Democrats in the cities, Republicans in the “sticks.” Besides the City, Democrats concentrate in Westchester, Rockland, and Nassau Counties, plus the cities of Albany, Buffalo, Ithaca, Rochester, and Syracuse. Republicans live in Upstate New York, the Hudson Valley, and the east of Long Island.

Ithaca is especially telling, and perhaps Republicans will never penetrate there. For Ithaca is home to Cornell University, the newest Ivy League college. Ithaca once developed its own currency: the Hour, meant literally to translate into an hour’s work. One Hour equated to ten dollars – no matter who earned it; the pay scale was the same for everyone. After its inventor moved out of town, and people got used to credit cards and online bill payment, the Ithaca Hour died.

Who’s been winning elections?

The last Republican to keep winning reelection as governor was Nelson A. “Rocky” Rockefeller. When Gerald Ford appointed “Rocky” as his Vice-President in 1974, his seat-warmer, Malcolm Wilson, lost to the Democrat. Then in 1994 George Pataki took the governorship away from Mario Cuomo – whose wife predicted riots in the streets, riots that never came. But in 2006 Democrat Eliot Spitzer took the governorship, which has stayed in Democratic hands ever since. But Republican Lee Zeldin came within three points of taking the governorship away from Kathy Hochul. Not only was she a caretaker succeeding a disgraced predecessor (Andrew Cuomo, Mario’s son, removed on impeachment over his inter-office dalliances with eleven unwilling women), but she also has been a very poor governor, hanging on through Communist-like ideology alone. But, as ever, she has always been able to count on New York City, Westchester, Rockland, Nassau, etc.

No Republican candidate for President has carried New York State since Ronald Reagan in 1984. His opponent then, Walter F. Mondale, was a bigger disaster than George S. McGovern had been in 1972. But ever since then, Democratic candidates have carried New York with 58 percent or better of the vote. Biden carried it with 60.8 percent in 2020. With numbers like that, no one – ever – has called New York a swing State. But that was before Lee Zeldin. It was also before the biggest political mistake the Democrats could have made.

Putting Trump under State arrest in New York

Alvin Bragg, District Attorney for New York County (i.e., Manhattan), won an indictment against Trump for allegedly paying for the silence of one “Stormy” Daniels, with whom he might – or might not (she denies it!) – have had an affair. Judge Juan Merchan, overseeing the trial of the case, has threatened to arrest Trump if he misses one day of the trial. This makes any travel by Trump to any State other than New York impractical – thus placing him under “State arrest.”

And that was the mistake. Democrats had hoped to sideline Trump at a time when, according to conventional wisdom, he should be gallivanting all across the country, holding his signature rallies. They expected his momentum to dry up, since he couldn’t be physically present in these other States. And they never expected New Yorkers to break their loyalty to their party.

They couldn’t have been more wrong – on both counts. Elsewhere, the people know why Trump can’t appear, and they sympathize. Everyone who cares to know, knows that the charges are unfounded and amount to selective prosecution. That’s the nearest thing to a bill of attainder (trying someone in the legislature) that can happen in America. That has enraged Trump’s base and caused Democratic rank-and-file to wonder – a thing they should never have risked. Trump, for his part, walked among the people of New York City. He’d never done that before – and the people love him for it.

Visiting a bodega

For example, Trump visited the Blue Moon, a bodega in Manhattan. Two years ago someone robbed the store, then came back for more. Shop assistant Jose Alba defended himself against that robber and ended up killing him. The New York County District Attorney charged him with murder! Later the D.A. thought better of that and dropped the murder charge. But Alba, in disgust, left the country for his native Dominican Republic.

Any public prosecutor has discretion. They almost nevercharge someone with murder, under circumstances that clearly show that he can affirmatively defend himself at trial. Not only are public prosecutorial offices on fixed budgets, but everyone in them is also on fixed salary. So why should they waste their time, a court’s time, their budget, and court costs?

That Alvin Bragg was willing to do that, shows that he, like all Democrats in New York, sympathize with criminals. A thief, to them, is an irregular wealth-redistribution agent. And a murderer is an irregular population thinner. Remember: Democrats answer to an elite who literally think this Earth is too small to hold them and the masses.

Trump visited the Blue Moon, and the neighborhood – and the people still remembered, and welcomed him.

Of further note: when “Resident” Biden tried to do the same at a gasoline station, he got a cold reception. And now (would you believe it!) his Equal Employment Opportunities Commission is suing the chain for racial discrimination in hiring.

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, and the third time it’s enemy action. Ian Fleming

Breaking a union stronghold – or is it really?

Two days ago, Trump, on his way to trial, stopped by a construction site. (Yes, they’re still building things in New York City.) The construction gang loved it. Then Bob Bartels, head of Steamfitters Local 638, made a thunderclap announcement. Presidential preferences among his membership trends 3 to 1 for Trump! And he gave an enthusiastic reason why that’s happening.

Or rather, reasons: high prices for groceries and gasoline, illegal immigration, and crime. The immigration part he squarely lays on Biden. Even though many of the immigrants arrive on buses from Texas – and he surely knows that Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) paid for those buses – he also knows where those immigrants come from, and who effectively let them in. That’s why, when someone asked him how he felt about the “Resident,” he uttered a blistering sexual obscenity.

Bartels did actually work for Donald Trump once. But that was in 1986, and back then, Trump was a Democrat. No more, of course.

Trump loves (the people of) New York

It’s high time Trump did campaign in New York, regardless of the circumstances that stop him from campaigning elsewhere. He made his fortune in New York, and should be the State’s favorite son. But in all honesty, he has neglected the City and State, in the belief that no Republican is going to carry the State for love nor money.

He acknowledged that – sort of. When people asked him how he’s doing, he first talked about his polling in “swing States,” which is better this time than in 2020. He then said explicitly that he felt he had a shot at carrying New York. For that he cited crime, inflation, and the governor’s poor performance in office. (That thirteen-minute video contains this interview.)

This is not the first time he’s said such things. In August of 2020 he boasted of putting New York in play. Sadly, it didn’t work out that way. Biden carried the State with more than sixty percent of the vote. Mike Lindell might wonder whether that margin was accurate. But no one doubts that Biden’s lead in New York has shrunk badly. Biden leads by ten percent in the latest Siena College poll. Not only is this way down from September 2023, but the sampling was taking place while Trump was visiting the Blue Moon. And: Siena College skews left, given its partnership with The New York Times.

Overcoming fears

More than this, Donald Trump has never wanted to mingle among the people before. He literally was afraid of contracting infection that way. That’s a real concern, but smart people can take steps. Trump won’t actually get close enough for a handshake, but still he gets much closer to ordinary folks than he ever is when he’s standing on a stage. The thirteen minutes of footage from his visit to the Blue Moon shows that.

People notice something else. Trump doesn’t get lost; Biden does. That’s why Biden’s handlers must tightly script his every appearance. Not so with Trump. Not everyone likes everything he has to say, but he will never trail off, mumble, or make “word salad.”

More to the point, he reaches people where they live, and makes them think. And as Bob Bartels said, registered Democrats – among them, his members – are rethinking the kind of Party to which they want to belong. In New York City, the Democrats are the party of bodyguards for their Upper East Side donors, and crime for everyone else. (The City has no middle class.) And their courts are the most ideologically – if not venally – corrupt of all State courts. Their defiance of New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen shows that.

Those same courts confined Donald Trump to New York. But they did not reckon with Trump’s superb adaptability – and recognition of the folly of “writing off” any State.

Summary

Bearing this success in mind, Donald Trump must not abandon New York when his trial, as it must, concludes. He might even want to risk arrest by skipping trial to attend his son Barron’s high-school graduation. Such an arrest would instantly identify him with Nelson Mandela – if not Eugene V. Debs or even Sacco and Vanzetti! (Though the charges against Trump are not capital, Keith Olbermann made an intemperate remark sounding like a call for assassination.)

All speculation aside, Trump should go on mingling with the people, especially in New York. He might try that in California, too. For too long Democrats in those States have lived in an ideological bubble. That no one was willing to burst it, speaks of lack of imagination – which Democrats spin as contempt. If anyone is being contemptuous of the masses, it’s the Democrats, with their policies that destroy any concept of ordered civic life. Trump is showcasing that, in strictly impromptu campaign appearances.

People who live in bubbles shouldn’t try confining, within them, enemies wielding big needles. Democrats in New York did. Now they’re about to suffer explosive decompression – or an implosive crushing by a now-undeniable reality.