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Texit – the war game

Realistically, Texit – the Texas Exit – would likely mean war. Herewith an evaluation of the assumptions, and initial conditions, of a war game.

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Chess - a centuries-old war game

Now that Rep. Kyle Biedermann (R-Fredericksburg, Texas) has introduced his Texas Independence Referendum Act, let the war games begin. Anyone contemplating secession must make a plan to achieve it, and to count the prices of failure and success. For success in anything must come at a price. But not everything a nay-sayer might count as a price, actually is a price. And one often does not know the true cost of success without trying. Still, as Jesus says, no commander goes to war without a plan. And no one has invented a better way to plan, than the war game.

Assumptions – the key element of any war game

A war game is an argument. The gamer argues that a certain objective is, or is not, within reach, or that a given strategy will, or will not, work. And the gamer always assumes one or more things about the object, initial conditions, and rules of the game. Even war has its rules, but not the kind people think. A war game rule is a statement of what a general (or admiral or air marshal) may reasonably expect. The only judge of a war game is reality itself. Conditions are what they are, not what we wish them to be.

So what assumptions may we make before playing the Texit war game?

The nay-sayers …

Let’s start with the assumptions the opponents of Texit make. Dave Hodges, in this video,

warned that the U.S. military would attack the Republic of Texas with overwhelming force, and win. But behind the warning is an assumption. He assumed that the U.S. military would:

  1. Stay in perfect unity of command, purpose, and morale, and cheerfully carry out orders to attack, and:
  2. Enjoy the full, unqualified support of an overwhelming majority of the people on the “United States” side when hostilities begin.

Ken Herman of the Austin American-Statesman seems to assume the same. He calls talk of succession “ramblings of people who struggle with the concept of … losing … an election.”1 Two kinds of thoughts lead people to talk that way:

  1. One way or another, you lose!
  2. How ungrateful can you be to want to leave!

A blogger calling himself “Lobotero” says: “Let them go … they will come back!” Why? Because they derive certain “benefits” from being part of the United States. Lobotero won’t say what.

Tim Kirby at Strategic Culture points to a map showing:

  1. The powerful USA across the border,
  2. The Gulf of Mexico, subject to naval blockade, and
  3. Mexico, which he calls a “vassal state.”

Again he assumed what Dave Hodges assumes. And furthermore, he assumed that Texas’ economy would collapse like those in the former Soviet Union when it collapsed.

Now let’s continue with the assumptions those in favor of Texit make.

… and the cheerleaders

Your editor discussed some of them here.

They included:

  • A significant proportion of members of the armed services are Texans themselves. They would never “raise [their] hand[s] … against [their] own people,” any more than General Robert E. Lee would.
  • Any orders to attack a civilian population “whose only crime was voting wrong” would split the military. Result: mutiny. And more than mutiny: desertion in the face of the enemy.
  • The civilians would never back such a move. Antiwar sentiment would explode, if not in the cities, then definitely in the rural areas.
  • Several States would join with Texas immediately to form a military alliance. Their example, Texan success on the battlefield or at sea, or both, would inspire others.

Next step in the war game – evaluation

Now let’s evaluate the assumptions, and those who make them. The nay-sayers will charge “wishful thinking” on the part of the cheerleaders. But some nay-sayers lay themselves open to their own charge of dark wishful thinking.

Have a look at Ken Herman. He lives in Travis County, and writes for the most prominent newspaper in that county, the Austin American-Statesman. Travis County is the most leftist county in Texas by far – and in fact is an outlier. Rice University’s Baker Institute showed this in 2014. From the tone of that editorial, that reality about Travis County has not changed. So we can dismiss Ken Herman as a typical leftist still wondering why Brazoria County hasn’t turned as blue as Travis. For that matter, he’s probably wondering why Comal and Williamson Counties haven’t turned blue, for being next to Bexar and Travis Counties, respectively.

Dave Hodges does not have such a dark wish. But he seems to be a natural pessimist. The one redeeming feature of his video is that he named one thing Texas could do. That is: to invoke the original Congressional Joint Resolution admitting Texas to the Union, and exercise the clause in it that explicitly consents to Texas subdividing into five States instead of one. That would present the Democrats now in control in Washington with a dilemma. Let Texas go, or see the Senate flip in an instant as the U.S. flag gains four more stars.

The material resources of the Republic of Texas…

A new Republic of Texas would have several resources. The tangible resources look more formidable when one considers them in depth. First, Texas has a Military Department to oversee three armed services: the

  • Army National Guard,
  • Air National Guard, and
  • State Guard.

Texas even has a Navy—though that consists of only one ship, and that a straw-bottomed one. That ship is, of course, the former USS Texas BB-35, now riding at anchor in San Jacinto Harbor. This site gives the least biased opinion on the condition of this vessel.

Unlike many other States especially in the West, citizens of Texas hold 95 percent of its land in fee simple. The federal government owns less than two percent of Texas territory.

Texas also has its own gold reserve. And the nay-sayers likely never thought of this key fact about electricity generation in the continental USA. The Texas electrical grid is one of the three major divisions of the grid for the continental USA. This grid covers almost all the present land area of Texas. A Republic of Texas would have to add connections to:

  • The western tip at El Paso,
  • A strip of land bordering Louisiana and Arkansas, and
  • The western portion of the Texas Panhandle.

Daniel Miller’s Texas Nationalist Movement has further details.

…and the human resources

Any Republic is, first and foremost, its people. And the people of Texas, apart (perhaps) from the majority of residents of Travis County, have a proud and independent mind-set. This is why the Texas electrical grid is separate and apart from the Eastern and Western Interconnections. One could almost speculate that the first people to electrify Texas, did so with Texas independence in mind.

Thus far, Texans remember their history. They remember the Alamo, if one will pardon the pun. So when the Ken Hermans and the Tim Kirbys start talking about the overwhelming superiority of the enemy, remind them of what Colonel Travis said at the Alamo:

I shall never surrender or retreat…. Victory or death!

The residents of Travis County are the most notable exception to this rule. This could also apply to some (not all!) residents of Dallas, Tarrant (Fort Worth), Bexar (San Antonio), and Harris (Houston) Counties. (But not to Galveston County!) In addition, Democrats carry El Paso and other Counties along the Rio Grande. Some residents, having fled the consequences of leftist policies, still vote leftist. Or they have. Maybe now they’ll stop voting that way, given the excesses of the Biden administration.

The prime Texit defense contractor – vital in a war game

And so we come to the newest prominent resident of Texas: Elon Musk. Already he is re-domiciling to Texas, to stop paying California taxes and get away from California political craziness.

Elon Musk brings with him an attitude very close to what a Texan will need, if this war game shows any reasonable prospect of victory for Texas. He appreciates freedom. “Give us our freedom!” he said repeatedly, in the context of lockdowns for SARS-CoV-2. When he said that, he reminded your editor of Cinque of the Amistad, pleading before the United States Supreme Court. Of late he spoke scathingly of the collusion between an instant-message operator and the hedge fund managers who tried to destroy Gamestop with their short selling. And in that process, he promoted Bitcoin, the first of the blockchain cryptocurrencies.

Already he has established facilities in Texas for three of his companies:

  • Tesla, in the form of “Terafactory Austin,” the factory he is building in Travis County.
  • SpaceX, with its proving ground at Boca Chica, Texas.
  • Neuralink, his bioengineering firm, which also now has laboratories in Travis County.

That leaves The Boring Company, his tunneling firm. Today its assets are in California, Nevada, and two tunnels between them. But its most important asset is intellectual:

  • Plans for building a rapid tunnel borer that produces usable bricks as it moves, and
  • Designs for a network of tunnels and tunnel stations.

Elon Musk is the perfect defense contractor for the Republic of Texas.

And now, let the war game begin!

This completes the preliminary evaluation of the Texit war game. It sets forth its assumptions and assesses the true initial conditions.

1 Of course, people really struggle with the concept of winning an election and having the election judges willfully defraud them of victory.

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Terry A. Hurlbut has been a student of politics, philosophy, and science for more than 35 years. He is a graduate of Yale College and has served as a physician-level laboratory administrator in a 250-bed community hospital. He also is a serious student of the Bible, is conversant in its two primary original languages, and has followed the creation-science movement closely since 1993.

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