Nixon went to China, too

Hello, this is Darrell Castle with today’s Castle Report. This is Friday the 22^nd day of May in the year of our Lord 2026. President Trump just completed a three-day historic summit with Premier Xi in China. He is not the first President to visit China, since President Nixon made that trip in 1972. China was a far different nation then than today. It was in the throes of suffering through the Maoist revolution.

Memorial Day

This is the Friday before Memorial Day when we pause to remember the fallen and for most it is the start of a 3-day weekend, but for Joan and I it is a different sort of anniversary to remember. Forty-nine years ago, on this date we saw each other for the first time because we were introduced on a blind date with mutual friends. So, we met forty-nine years ago on this date and we have been together ever since but our actual anniversary, the forty-nine will be in December.

This Memorial Day falls 81 years after the end of World War ll, seventy-seven years after the end of the Korean War, and fifty-one years after the end of the Vietnam War. I guess the other wars, the desert wars, are still going on. Since we are into a little nostalgia this week and to prevent burying the lead it was 54 years ago that Nixon made his historic trip to China. It was historic because China and the US, although friends in World War ll had been bitter enemies for 23 years or since the Maoist revolution.

China expected capitalism to fail

The governing principle upon which the Chinese government has been based for all those years now 77 has been that capitalism would inevitably fail, and communism would ultimately triumph around the world. The triumph would come by way of revolution as it did in China but with the aid of countries where the Communist revolution had already occurred. That principle explains why the real enemy of the Western forces fighting in Korea and Vietnam was China and Russia, not North Korea and North Vietnam.

When Nixon arrived in China in 1972 the Communist Revolution had been ongoing since 1949 or 23 years but China had not fared well under Communism. It was a desperately poor, agrarian society in which the people were making little or no progress. There was very little indoor plumbing, especially in rural areas, and very little access to electricity. GDP per capita was barely at subsistence levels. Unlike today, China was technologically backward with a massive military but unable to technically compete.

Trade with China was at $95.9 million and Nixon sought to build a bridge across the hostility of that world. He famously declared it “the week that changed the world.” President Clinton had a different approach to China because he apparently believed that massive technology transfers and resulting economic success would ease tensions and result in a more peaceful world.

The Clinton policy

In 2000 he gave the Chinese PNTR or Permanent Normal Trade Relations and supported Chinese membership in the WTO or World Trade Organization in 2001. Before Chinese entry into the WTO the US-China trade deficit was about $83 billion but by 2015 it was $367 billion. Chinese imports into the US also surged massively with an estimated replacement of US jobs at about 2.4 to 3.4 million. Communities built in the US around the manufacture of electronics, clothing, furniture, automobiles, and other products were devastated and became just the rust belt.

Nixon visited a weak, agrarian society but the new economic policies turned it into an economic and military superpower. Now President Trump has visited this country which has been hostile to the United States for 77 years. Trump’s approach to negotiating is to assume he has the strength in the relationship and to use it to his advantage. Tariffs, export controls, global alliances, and military power are all used in an effort to help benefit US farmers, manufacturers, energy workers, and many others.

Trump v. Nixon in China

I predict that Trump’s trip to China will prove similar to Nixon’s in some ways. They both sought direct personal negotiation producing tangible economic benefits to both sides with protection from dangerous strategic competition. There is a knowledge or at least an assumption that President Clinton’s belief that economic success alone would moderate strategic behavior did not work and guardrails have to be installed and adhered to.

Nixon engaged an impoverished third-world China for the purpose of using it to counter the Soviets. Trump engaged a powerful superpower to prevent it from obtaining or maintaining dominance in key areas. He got a public commitment from Xi to stop supplying weapons to Iran and to not aid in Iranian nuclear efforts. I have some thoughts on Xi’s statement about Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons.

In my view his statement meant nothing or it was what in the law is referred to as legal fiction. He said that Iran should not have nuclear weapons and Iran should reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Well of course for the world’s economies the Strait should be reopened; a no brainer. Both sides know that nukes are not the reason for the attack on Iran and not the real reason for the continuation of the war.

Another reason?

Thomas Massie just found out in his Republican primary what the real reason is. If the Israel lobby or the friends of Israel wants you out of congress then you are out of congress. There aren’t many surviving Republicans who are not totally sold out the Israel lobby. Rand Paul is an example and Thomas Massie was another. So almost no Republicans and about the same number of Democrats although some Democrats seem to survive without total subservience.

If there are grounds for optimism coming from the summit they can be found in Xi’s public speech or at least that’s how I see them. The English version of Xi’s speech comes to me via George Friedman and his Geopolitical Futures:

Honorable President Donald J. Trump, ladies and gentlemen, friends, looking back at the cause of China-U.S. relations, whether or not we could have mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation is the key to whether the relationship can advance steadily. The world today is changing and turbulent. China-U.S. relations concern the well-being of over 1,7 billion people of both countries and affect the interests of the over 8 billion people of the world. Both sides should rise up to this historic responsibility and steer the giant ship of China-U.S. relations forward steadily and in the right direction.

To me that statement says this is a multi-polar world. So if we are to progress together and for the good of the world’s people you must recognize that. If you are willing to do that then 77 years of hostility can end at least open hostility can end. President Trump probably had the speech examined by his China people. And he probably pointed out the thousands of Chinese spies who occupy every university of note, every corporation of note and even hold political office.

An example of a China agent

Yes the mayor of Alameda, California has confessed to being a Chinese agent. There are hardly any members of Congress or the Senate who haven’t slept with at least one Chinese spy. Mr. Xi let me ask you this if the Chinese are so smart and so technologically proficient why do you have to steal your technology and your scientific advances from us. I’m just guessing but I imagine all those things were discussed.

In short, China needs the American market to save its economy. In recent years economists have noted that Chinese domestic consumption has fallen off a cliff, but production is soaring. Thar means that China cannot absorb nearly enough of its production and needs the American market to do that. America needs China and Russia to help it find a face-saving exit from its war against Iran. You both control Iran and we will endeavor to control Netanyahu.

To carry my point a little further Xi mentioned the Thucydides Trap in which the ancient Greek Geopolitical Thinker pointed out that when a rising power collides with an old power war is always the result. Xi said he hopes that can be avoided for China and the U.S. If that is the case and both sides want to avoid war then talking is at least the first step and a necessary one. To that end they have scheduled another summit for Washington in September, I think.

Maybe China cannot afford war

Finally, folks, it seems to me that China has everything to lose and nothing to gain by war with the United States. George Friedman pointed out the fact that he mentioned Thucydides but did not mention Lenin, or Marx. To me that’s pretty significant and could mean a turning away from 77 years of false assumptions. Why are these two men meeting and negotiating, well, I think necessity is the mother of invention and right now they need each other.

At least that’s the way I see it.

Until next time folks,

This is Darrell Castle.

From CastleReport.us, appears by arrangement – Ed.