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Russia goes to all-out war

Russia went to all-out war against Ukraine, with missile strikes knocking out power and water throughout that country. Is invasion next?

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Two days ago CNAV reported on the sabotage of the Kerch Strait Bridge connecting Crimea to the rest of Russia. CNAV said then that the appointment of General Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin as theater commander in Ukraine was a clear signal that Russia was through playing games. This morning General Surovikin proved the point. With a series of cruise missile strikes, Russia has devastated the power and other infrastructure throughout western Ukraine. Will Russia do nothing more than send a message with these strikes? Or will an all-out total invasion come next?

Russia strikes several Ukrainian cities

Again CNAV prefers primary sources, in this case the Telegraph channels Intel Slava Z and Battlefield Insights. To this CNAV makesone exception: the British Broadcasting Corporation. CNAV cites them for two reasons. They are the first Western source to report on what is happening in Ukraine. They also nearly lost a man to one of the missile strikes, if one can correctly infer that from some on-site footage.

The Kremlin officially blamed Ukraine for the Kerch Strait Bridge bombing yesterday. Furthermore, Intel Slava Z reported several explosions in Zaporozhe City, at 6:34 a.m. Kyiv time. They also released two pictures of destroyed armored fighting vehicles belonging to the Ukrainian army.

General Surovikin seems to have responded relatively swiftly, if he hadn’t already given the orders. At 6:37 a.m. Kyiv time came this report of a Russian missile strike on a train at or near a “major railway junction.” At 7:00 a.m. the Russians started using artillery; the message doesn’t make clear where. Then at 7:43 a.m. came the first reports of missile strikes in Kyiv itself, and later Dnepopetrovsk.

At 8:08 a.m., Intel Slava Z shared this footage of a BBC reporter, covering the war in Ukraine, who had to duck and cover.

A Beeb reporter must duck and cover in mid-report as a missile hits kyiv. From Intel Slava Z.

Then at 8:44 a.m. Intel Slava Z released a picture of General Surovikin, with this text:

General Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin
General Sergei Vladimirovich Surovikin, commander-in-theater of the “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine.

For the enemies of Russia, the morning does not start with coffee.

List of cities and targets

Battlefield Insights, at 11:55 a.m. Kyiv Time, released this list of the cities that had taken missiles, and their effects.

Preliminary targets of missile strikes on Ukraine according to OSINT and telegram channels

The following cities were hit:

  • Kyiv
  • Dnepropetrovsk
  • Kharkiv
  • Zaporozhye
  • Ternopil
  • Odessa
  • Krivoy Rog
  • Lviv
  • Zhytomyr
  • Rivne
  • Nikolaev
  • Krapivnitsky
  • Kremenchug
  • Konotop

Attacks on critical infrastructure:

  • Glavk SBU (Kyiv)
  • CHPP-5 (Kyiv)
  • CHPP-6 (Kyiv)
  • Lvovskaya CHPP (Lviv)
  • Burshtynska TPP (Ivano-Frankivsk region)
  • EU Advisory Mission (Kyiv)
  • Department of Law Enforcement Agencies (Kyiv) Kyiv and Kharkov

Total loss of power:

  • Lviv
  • Zhytomyr
  • Sumy
  • Kharkiv
  • Khmelnitsky
  • Poltava
  • Ternopil
  • Lutsk

Partial loss of power and full/partial loss of water supply: basically all over Ukraine.

Source: various Russian media, telegram channels, Ukrainian media and user reports

Dmitri Medvedev, former President of the Russian Federation, plainly said this was only the beginning. Here is a Yandex translation of Medvedev’s Telegram message, released at 12:42 p.m. Moscow time:

The first episode is played.

There will be others.

And more. I will express my personal position. I can’t help but mention it now. The Ukrainian state in its current configuration with the Nazi political regime will pose a constant, direct and obvious threat to Russia. Therefore, in addition to protecting our people and protecting the borders of the country, the goal of our future actions, in my opinion, should be a full-fledged dismantling of the political regime of Ukraine.

What about the bridge?

At 3:24 p.m. Kyiv time, Intel Slava Z released this statement by Deputy Prime Minister Marat Shakirzyanovich Khusnullin concerning repairs to the Kerch Strait Bridge:

Deputy Prime Minister Khusnullin said that damage to the pillars on the Crimean bridge would be repaired by the end of the week.

The delivery of the necessary equipment for the upcoming repair of two bridge spans of the automobile part of the Crimean Bridge has already begun. The schedule for the dismantling of the damaged spans will be presented in the next three days. In general, the system has already entered the mode of eliminating the consequences of the terrorist attack, and there is no particular doubt that they will try to eliminate the consequences of the terrorist attack as soon as possible.

It is also worth noting that trucks are not allowed to cross the Crimean bridge. There will be ferries. Car traffic continues. There is no excitement associated with gasoline in the Crimea.

The Beeb, meanwhile, reports that casualties are strikingly minimal: eleven deaths, with eight in Kyiv alone, and sixty injuries.

Dr. Steve Turley released a forward from the Bellum Acta channel:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office has reportedly been destroyed in a Russian strike on Central Kyiv/Kiev!

Intel Slava Z confirmed the destruction of “the head of the Cyber Police Department.”

The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv has urged all American citizens in Ukraine to “shelter in place” and get out when they can—on the ground.

What will Russia do next?

CNAV sees little reason to doubt that Russia will follow up these attacks with a full-scale invasion. This cannot be, as the Beeb guessed, mere “revenge” for the Kerch Strait Bridge. The sabotage to the bridge was no doubt the trigger. The Russians likely appointed General Surovikin as theater commander in response to that event. But General Surovikin had done all the things one normally does before launching a ground invasion. The idea is to destroy the enemy’s ability to resist.

CNAV mentions reports in other Western sources of the “annihilation” of the Kerch Strait Bridge only to condemn them. The most charitable characterization of them is what Mark Twain might have said about “great exaggeration.”

Dmitri Medvedev as good as promised a full-scale invasion with the aim of regime change. Remember what he said:

The first episode is played. There will be others.

In fact Vladimir Putin has already addressed the Russian Federation Security Council. We don’t know yet what formal declarations they will issue. But the term “Special Military Operation” might already be obsolete.

This also means that the United States must stop throwing money at the region. Ukraine has already lost, whatever one thinks of the casus belli either side had.

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Terry A. Hurlbut has been a student of politics, philosophy, and science for more than 35 years. He is a graduate of Yale College and has served as a physician-level laboratory administrator in a 250-bed community hospital. He also is a serious student of the Bible, is conversant in its two primary original languages, and has followed the creation-science movement closely since 1993.

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