Wagner Mutiny – what did the world witness?

What indeed did the world witness in the mutiny of PMC (Private Military Company) Wagner yesterday? (Other than the inherent hazards of granting charters to mercenary soldiers, akin to naval letters of marque and reprisal?) The ostensible explanation will not serve, because it makes no logical sense. We see here a replay of Essex’ Rebellion of 1601 against Queen Elizabeth I, and for similar reasons. Surely General Yevgeny Prigozhin, now former commander of PMC Wagner, knew this. And knew he was dealing with a far more formidable foe than either Elizabeth I or Catherine II. Yet he closed within 125 miles of his country’s capital city, only to accept … exile. Why? And could something else have been in play, and still be in play?

The Wagner Group – who are they?

The events of Saturday, June 24, 2023, one can follow here and here. The Wagner Group is an oversized brigade, with at least three major units. Two of these are of regimental size. The third or Níðhöggr Unit is a Scandinavian auxiliary. As many theories exist of this brigade’s actual relationship with the Russian Federation Military Forces, as the number of theorists proposing them. Until yesterday, many observers firmly believed that this group was a fiction, a false identity to cover for “wet ops.” For a fact, its personnel use regular army posts for training, staging, logistical support, etc.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder and overall commander of the Wagner Group, is known to have feuded openly with the Russian Ministry of Defense, General Staff, and the Office of the President. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov especially rated Prigozhin’s undying and poorly disguised contempt.

By all accounts, “Wagnerites” are all hardened troopers, bloodied under fire, and accustomed to very punishing missions. Most recently they played a decisive role in the recapture of Bakhmut – or Artyemosk, its Russian and Soviet-era name. Indeed the Donbas region of Ukraine has always been the Wagnerites’ favorite theater of operations.

Actual events

CNAV followed events using Telegram, whose administrators know more about international outreach and anti-censorship than any other platform administrators. (Gab Social might be a possible exception.) According to Dr. Steve Turley, the quarrel between General Prigozhin and the Russian Federation General Staff boiled over. So, like the Earl of Essex, Prigozhin led his men into rebellion.

Wagnerites marched into the city of Rostov-on-Don and captured the Russian army regional headquarters. Then he led or sent key units northward. These elements captured Voronezh and Lipetsk, along the M4 motorway. In the process, someone set fire to an oil refinery outside Voronezh. The spearhead continued north along the M4 motorway and reached the “third outer ring” of the Moscow Oblast. At the same time, elements of the Akhmat Force, a Chechen group, marched on Rostov, intent on repossessing it.

And then suddenly, everything stopped. Alyaksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus, actually mediated between Prigozhin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Those two actually made a deal, according to which Prigozhin accepted exile in Belarus! Those men who ostensibly did not take part in the “Wagner Group Rebellion” can sign new contracts with Russia. Those who did, will go back to the Ukrainian front. But why did they make that deal? Here he is, in his own words:

They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We began on 23 June with our March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps, according to the plan.

Losses on the regular Russian side include seven aircraft – six helicopters and one fixed-wing airborne command post.

Breathless commentary

Those are the actual events of the “Wagner Group Rebellion.” But breathless rumors began to circulate almost at once. This rumor, from the New Voice of Ukraine, was typical. It said one of Lukashenko’s executive transports landed in Turkey after flying a circuitous route. They at least had the good sense to admit they did not know whether Lukashenko was aboard. Another outlet was not so sensible earlier yesterday – they said Lukashenko had fled his country. The search engines cannot retrieve that story now; perhaps its outlet withdrew it from publication.s

Jack Posobiec at Human Events took sardonic note of other rumors, particularly on Twitter.

And after the settlement:

But we also have Laura Loomer noticing something very interesting about American support of Ukraine:

Analysis: what was the Wagner Group Rebellion all about?

In sum, the Wagner Group Rebellion looks nothing like what breathless “neoconservatives” expected it to be when it began. They actually expected Putin dead and Russia reduced to a shell of itself before day’s end. Naturally they did not expect the rebellion to end as quickly as it began – and 125 miles short of its goal.

But General Prigozhin’s reasons for standing down, and accepting that deal, ring totally hollow. Prigozhin has a reputation for brutality in battle. True, that could result from his disdain for all non-Russians. Slavic culture can be brutal at times. But if he seriously thought Putin had wronged him in some way, he would not suddenly develop scruples about bloodshed.

Yet suppose, as Laura Loomer expects, the CIA suborned him to march on Moscow? Or rather: suppose the CIA thought they had suborned him, to the tune of $6.2 billion? He then accepted the deal because it came from an old friend, namely Lukashenko. And he would have to go into exile. Putin could never feel comfortable having him around – nor afford to look quite so magnanimous. (And some are already speculating that he will not be so magnanimous, and that Prigozhin and his men will meet with “accidents.”)

Probably no one will figure out why Prigozhin did what he did – and stopped short of his goal. Then again, we still cannot explain, to our own satisfaction, the assassinations of John and Robert Kennedy last century.