2023 – year of war

As 2023 draws to a close, war continues in Ukraine, and has broken out in the Middle East. Whether civil war will break out in the United States, will depend on the 2024 Presidential election – and not only who wins it, but how.

War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine is winding down. The Ukraine government is conscripting men who in any other context would be considered over-age. Russian forces continue to tighten their hold on the Donbas and the Crimea – regions filled with ethnic Russians. These people want reunion with Russia, and nothing is going to stop that. The only remaining question is, how much of the rest of Ukraine will Russia take back? (And, how much does Russia want back?)

For patriotic Americans, the worst consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War are these:

• American forces are running out of ammunition – because our government has shipped it to Ukraine, in a futile gesture.
• Volodymyr Zelensky presumes to say Americans will fight and die in central Europe if he goes down.
• One of the “small fry” Republican candidates for President would like to send Americans to fight and die in Europe. And it’s not Ron DeSantis. Who it actually is, likely proves why, perhaps, a woman might not make a suitable President.

Israel at war all over again

On October 7, 2023, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Arabic Harakah al-Muqāwamah al-Islāmiyyah, abbreviated HAMAS), together with some willing irregulars, started the Fourth Arab-Israeli War with an incredible series of atrocities. The Israel Defense Forces have responded by carefully digging HAMAS out, one tunnel at a time. (And one weapons cache at a time, usually associated with hospitals and schools.)

But this conflict has split American political coalitions, on both the left and the right. American Jews have always taken the side of the political left – right up to the time Gentile leftists turned against them and actually denied – or else, incredibly, excused – the HAMAS atrocities. On the right, the Dispensational-Covenantal Dispute has escalated to a fresh level of vitriol. The conflict seemed to spread even to the iconic Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade.

Antisemitism has broken out in many American universities, almost all of them among the elite. This has caused many “boosters” to stop “boosting” the universities where this is happening. That’s only one of the consequences such antisemitism is now having – at least one university president has already resigned. (Another one hasn’t resigned – yet – but the “corporation” that decided to support her is facing its own pressures as faculty members call on “corporation fellows” to resign also.)

President Joe Biden seems able to please no one. Jews dismiss his support for Israel as tepid at best – and Arabs resent any degree of support for Israel.

Civil conflict in America?

America has seen many actions the like of which one sees only in banana republics. Federal authorities have formally arrested a former President three times. At least one State Supreme Court and one other Secretary of State refused to list him on primary ballots. This suggests that the Democrats know they cannot win in 2024 as they won in 2020 – by whatever means. Joe Biden is polling lower than Donald Trump – something he never did in 2020. (Neither did Hillary Clinton do it in 2016.) Commentators are offering no shortage of reasons for Biden’s numbers being in the tank.

Evidence is now accumulating that Joe Biden did not win his election honestly. At least 17 percent of voters surveyed admitted taking part in activities some might consider fraudulent. One possible culprit in that election is not the Biden campaign, but a (nominally) Republican Secretary of State. Georgia politics turns out to be thoroughly compromised by a corrupt “RINO” establishment. That compromise has extended to Georgia elections – and Secretary of State Brad “Riff Raff” Raffensperger turns out to be an equal-opportunity offender. (Now he demands millions of dollars to fix a problem he refuses to fix until after the 2024 elections.)

In the Supreme Court

The United States Supreme Court finished its 2022 term with more decisions generally favorable to human liberty. It also illustrated the division of the Court into three blocs – originalists, moderate conservatives, and liberals. Each member of the Liberal Bloc broke Court decorum at least once:

• Jackson in SFFA v. Harvard/UNC (discriminatory Diversity, Equity and Inclusion admissions to college),
• Sotomayor in 303 Creative v. Elenis (religious conscience in artistic expression in contracted services), and
• Kagan in Biden v. Nebraska (forgiveness of student loans).

Which is not to say that every decision of the Supreme Court was 6-3 for originalism. One decision, reining in an out-of-control quasi-legislative, quasi-judicial executive agency, was effectively unanimous. Another went the Liberal way after the petitioner “blew” his case.

None of the decisions in the 2022 Term touched on gun control. But the weight of the Bruen decision from the 2021 Term, and the number of other conservative-favorable decisions in the term completed this summer, prompted a gun-grabbing State governor to take a drastic step. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) wants an Article V Constitutional Convention to achieve virtual repeal of the Second Amendment.

Current Supreme Court jurisprudence

In the current Supreme Court term, freedom of speech is on the line. The case of Missouri v. Biden, which hasn’t even come to trial, is now before the Supreme Court. At issue are the multiple decisions by social-media platforms to “play ball” with the Deep State. Did the government leave them no choice? Or rather: do users have recourse when their platform, willingly or unwillingly, cooperates with the government to shut them up?

The Court is also examining the abortifacient compound, mifepristone (formerly “Roussel-UCLAF Lot 486”). This compound threatens to render meaningless the distinction between “abortion tourist traps” and the safe havens for unborn children that several “red States” have lately chosen to become. Abortions are occurring less frequently but not that less frequently. This confirms CNAV’s initial impression after Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. Which is: the country needs a Second Great Awakening. The Court proved that when it declined a case giving it a chance to declare a fundamental right to life.

Gun control will also come before the Court, in the form of several cases from States who seem bent on defying the Court openly.

But by far the most striking case the Court has taken, involves a January 6 defendant. It involves the most common charge leveled against those defendants, other than insurrection, which the prosecution seems to know it could never prove. If the Court decides this case for the petitioner, it could lead to a lot of instant releases – and malicious-prosecution lawsuits.

Looking ahead

A group calling itself the Transition Integrity Project played out four scenarios, including one that could have provoked civil war. Or so they seemed to say, though whether they fully thought the matter through is far from clear. What is clear is that Democrats seem bent on provoking civil war in America. Moves to deny Trump ballot access – and even refuse to count write-in votes for him – have some leftists already hemming, hawing, and demurring. That hasn’t stopped them all, however – and that might prove an even more important Supreme Court case.

In any case, the left and right have drawn several clear battle lines. One can hope that those on the right have the imagination Trump didn’t have in 2020. For they must be twice as smart as the political left – anticipate their moves, and plan how to defeat them.