Texas independence – how?

Recently the Texas Nationalist Movement “warned” those who support Texas in its border dispute that Texas independence might happen “before you know it.”

At least one Presidential candidate express skepticism – while still acknowledging that Texas has a right to declare independence! No doubt Ambassador Nikki Haley based her skepticism on the failure, thus far, of two “Texit Bills.” But Texas independence, however long it takes, benefits from trends that present leftist movements in America have set in motion. If those movements don’t reverse themselves, Texas will leave – and another wave of newcomers might push it.

Sentiment for Texas independence within Texas

The sentiment for Texas independence among current residents of Texas is difficult to measure. Again, the Texas House Committee on State Affairs has taken up two Texas Independence Referendum Acts, one in 2021 and the other in 2023. Political forces, seeking to maintain the status quo, have “chubbed” both. (To chub is Texas-speak for “to delay to death,” by pigeon-holing or filibustering, as appropriate. The name comes from a river fish peculiar to Texas, renowned for its big mouth, fat body – and voracious appetite. Or it could come from an early Renaissance word for a lazy person.)

The fate of those two bills means only that powerful establishment forces are determined to kill any such talk. But the fate of some who did the chubbing the first time, suggests that Texas independence sentiment might be stronger than events would seem to indicate.

Nevertheless, an entirely different kind of chubbing just happened to a petition to put the basic question of Texas independence on the Republican primary ballot. TNM gathered over a hundred thousand petition signatures, more than enough to satisfy the requirements. And the Texas Republican Party rejected the petition out-of-hand – and the reasons they gave are obviously specious. However, the Texas Supreme Court refuses to get involved.

All that happened before the Texas Border Dispute blew up. A swing voter on the United States Supreme Court quailed at the thought of mothers with small children drowning in the Rio Grande. Her vote has brought Texas to its present pass.

Political philosophy within Texas – and outside it

This brings us to a consideration of basic political philosophy within and outside of Texas. To understand this is to understand the movement that will actually drive Texas independence. Dan Miller, head of the Texas Nationalist Movement, has spent nearly a quarter century dwelling on the grievances Texans have with the federal government.

[O]ur relationship with the Federal Government is like having a Hurricane Harvey hit Texas every 9 months. Dan Miller

But plenty of civilizational thinkers outside of Texas have their own grievances with certain elite forces presently in control of many of the councils – and courts – in the United States today. These thinkers know, from long and bitter experience, that the elites will not surrender control willingly. In fact they strongly suspect that those elites will steal the Election of 2024, just as, and for the same reasons and by the same methods that, they stole the Election of 2020. A close examination of those reasons also reveals why a critical mass of those conservatives might move to Texas. When they do, they’ll be ready not only to vote for Texas independence, but to fight for it as well.

The elites and their program

These elites include the current leadership of the World Economic Forum, and the United Nations and many subsidiary agencies. The World Health Organization is the booby-prize example today. Indeed the United States Senate is preparing to vote on a Pandemic Treaty that will cede crucial control over health-care decisions to that body. The Senate needs two-thirds of the members present to ratify a treaty. A last-minute vote in the middle of campaign season might be all that the treaty’s proponents need do. That, and arranging for simultaneous railroad and air-traffic-control strikes to make sure that a critical number of Senators would not be present – and proponents would command a supermajority of those that remain. (A simple majority of the Senate constitutes a quorum. Article I Section 5 Clause 1.)

The specific and overarching aim of these elites is clear. They don’t consider this planet large enough for them on one hand, and the rest of us on the other. For that reason they promote a variety of explicitly non-procreative ideologies, including abortion and “The Alphabet Soup.” The latter ideology has prompted many school districts to adopt a policy of grooming the children in their charge to transition from their birth sex to the opposite sex, and keeping that a secret from the parents. One couple, having immigrated from India, ended up spiriting their children out of school, out of State – and back to their home country. (Source: The New York Post.)

All the ways Texas would attract conservatives

These ideologies are but two of the ways Texas today attracts conservatives who don’t want federal or State governments to:

• Interfere with the way they run their families, or to:
• Make them pay, through taxation, for other people to embrace the “abortion lifestyle” or Alphabet Soup lifestyles.

The NBC News Abortion Map tells one side of the story. Texas is an Abortion Desert. No one can get an abortion in Texas unless she would literally die without it. And, since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, no federal court will intervene. Not even a diagnosis of Trisomy 18 (Edwards Syndrome) will suffice. On the other hand, another case is pending to decide whether anyone can receive abortifacients in the mail, in violation of the Comstock Act.

Texas is also one of eighteen States that ban surgical mutilation or hormonal poisoning of children for “gender affirmation.”

An all-American couple, facing what that Indian couple faced in Olympia, Washington State, could move to Texas. In addition to that new law, Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) last summer signed several laws that create a “Parents’ Bill of Rights.”

In addition, Texas ranks 29^th in total tax burden, 27^th in cost of living, and has no State income tax. Texas also has fairly robust self-defense laws, that also apply to protecting third parties. Several recent – and shocking – prosecutions of third-party protectors in other States would simply not happen in Texas.

Economic viability of Texas independence

Economist Martin Armstrong wrote, on January 30, of the economic viability and military defensibility of an independent Texas. He concluded that Texas could stand alone – if circumstances, and the federal government, allowed it.

Armstrong’s analysis of the military strength of Texas is incomplete. Of the 115,000 active-duty military service members now based in Texas, 23,200 of these are part of the Texas Military Forces. The rest are United States Armed Service members. How many of these would make a mutiny and join the Texas ranks, Armstrong doesn’t say. Of the “15 military bases and installations distributed across the State,” perhaps all but one are federal. (The one exception is probably Camp Mabry, headquarters of the Texas Military Forces.)

How the immigration crisis could provoke further action

The Texas Border Dispute has caused people in and out of Texas to think about Texas independence as never before. At present, the Texas Army National Guard is the most effective fighting force now deterring illegal immigration to any degree. And this although the federal government is actively fighting Texas on this issue, though (so far) only in the courts.

As of this moment, two cases are pending about the physical barriers Texas has lately erected along the Mexican border. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals will hear oral argument in one – the concertina wire case – next Thursday. The other case involves a string of buoys along the centerline of the Rio Grande near Eagle Pass, Texas.

The Biden Administration issued at least one ultimatum telling the National Guard to stand down and let the Border Patrol remove the riverbank fence and concertina wire outside Eagle Pass. Those deadlines have passed with no action except a moratorium on Liquefied Natural Gas projects. But in addition, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) has already dispatched elements of the Florida Army National Guard to reinforce the Texas forces. Those forces are on the move – and other forces could follow.

A trucker protest convoy has already reached the border, after setting out from Virginia Beach, Virginia.

The Biden administration doubtless knows that the first shot fired in anger, could start a war. They also know the National Border Patrol Council has taken Texas’ side:

Two likely triggers

Aside from any latter-day Battle of Lexington – or Fort Sumter – two other events could set secession in motion – or not. The next is the end of the current term of the United States Supreme Court. Several Big Cases are set for oral argument or are already into their Battles of Opinions.

The one case that could have the largest impact is Murthy v. Missouri – the Internet censorship case. If – again – Justice Amy Coney Barrett “goes all wobbly” on the Constitution, her head full of lurid visions of panic in the streets, or meat wagons blaring out “Bring out your dead!” to passers-by, that would allegedly result from unbridled freedom of speech, then the First Amendment will take a significant blow. That’s exactly how conservatives would perceive it. They might also perceive that their own neighbors might “rat them out” just as surely as social-media users might. And they would be ripe to move to Texas – though not to Travis, Bexar, Harris, or Dallas Counties.

Then in November would come the Election of 2024. If Trump wins, that might provide some steam control. But if Biden wins, conservatives would want to relieve themselves of as much “nanny State” stress as possible. That, in addition to despairing of equal treatment under the law in many of their States – for a Presidential election is actually fifty State elections. The perception of thorough ideological corruption of swing State governments will provoke conservatives to move out. Many – perhaps a critical mass – will move to Texas.

The next Texas Independence Referendum Bill

Count on someone introducing a “Texit Bill” yet again in 2025. Whether it passes or “gets chubbed” depends on who wins certain primaries. Dade Phelan, Speaker of the Texas House, as noted already, has a significant primary challenger. If that person wins, the Texas House must select another Speaker.

A Biden victory could have emotions at a fever pitch, with or without an unfavorable decision in Murthy. That would be true among long-time Texas residents, to say nothing of newcomers fleeing from “blue States” (and swing States that gave away their electoral votes as they did in 2020). Visions of “Disease X lockdowns” and a new tee-up of the WHO Pandemic Treaty (if that is not already in force) will drive fervid letter-writing, email, and “Blast FAX” campaigns with one message: “We want Texas independence!” Under the circumstances, the Texas House might blast a “Texit Bill” out of the State Affairs Committee, chub or no chub. If the bill does not pass in the 2025 session, it will pass in the 2027 session, after more “primaryings.”

Then, given the fresh influx of angry residents, the Texit Referendum would return a landslide “Yes” vote. Even a two-year delay will not dampen the secession sentiment.

And afterward…

Texas independence would not come immediately. Instead, a Study Committee would sit to determine how to make independence happen, and how the State would govern itself as a Republic. Then the Texas Nationalist Movement would have to produce detailed plans to transition people out of programs like:

• Social Security (the Old Age, Survivorship, and Disability Insurance Program),
• Railroad Retirement (if applicable),
• Medicare and Medicaid, and
• Any other program that comes under the general category of “Welfare.”

They also would need plans for full State handling of functions like:

• Highway planning, construction, and maintenance,
• A new banking system with a unique Texas currency,
• Air traffic control and aviation safety regulation,
• International trade, and
• Expansion of the Texas Military Forces to include armed effectives in the U.S. Armed Services ready to resign their enlistments/commissions and “re-up” as Texas Military effectives.

The Texas Interconnection is already separate and apart. It would need extension into areas of Texas it does not already serve, and some definite power-source improvements.

But one thing might happen immediately upon passage and success of the Texas Independence Referendum. The “snowflakes” would move out. Very few would be fanatical enough to “stay and fight” until they’d need a visa to travel out-of-State. They’d move while the moving was good, likely to New Mexico, the nearest Abortion Tourist Trap State – or perhaps California. And a second wave of fed-up conservative Californians would be ready to take their places.

The Day of Reckoning

The Day of Reckoning, for or against Texas independence, need not come immediately. The very presence of a Texit Study Committee might bring a federal delegation to negotiate redress of Texas grievances. Or it might not, depending on how fanatical the Democratic Party really is. But one thing they could not ignore, would be the 2030 Census. Texas might “steal” four House seats from “blue States” in that Census. It might even create eight new Senate seats by splitting five ways. Under that circumstance, Biden might be inclined to let Texas go. The problem – as CNAV speculated once before – is that Vice-President Harris might circulate an Amendment XXV Section 4 Declaration of Presidential Inability. Yes, that would fail – because Republicans would rather deal with a senile dotard than a raving maniac. But the problem with maniacs is that they might not shun murder. (Ask Jane Fonda.)

But the left has a problem, too. The minute they take such a drastic step, half the States announce their intention to join Texas. As they have this time, though the action is short of secession.

So Texas might finish with, if not exactly independence, then a completely renegotiated relationship with the other States. Thereafter we can go back to saying, “The United States are…” instead of “The United States is…” And the dream of “planetary unity” would die – at least until the Rapture of the Church…