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Egypt offers Sinai lands?

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Flag of Egypt. What happened in Egypt is a metaphor for American policy failures in the Middle East.

A disputed report suggests the president of Egypt made to the Palestinians the most generous offer anyone could have imagined. If he did make such an offer Mahmoud Abbas refused. (The foreign ministry of Egypt denies the report.) Such an offer would be a little difficult for Israel to accept. It would be even more difficult for the Palestinians to refuse, if they want peace as they say.

Where did the report came from?

The report came from Gali-Tzahal (literally, IDF Radio or Army Radio), or Galatz for short. Readers can read it in the original, or in English by Independent Media Review and Analysis, or from Google Translate. According to this report, President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt offered a massive land grant to the Palestinian Authority. This grant would be five times the size of the present Gaza Strip territory and contiguous with it. It would effectively enlarge the Gaza territory by a factor of six.

Israel, Judea-Samaria, and Gaza. Did Egypt offer to enlarge Gaza south and west of Israel?

Israel, its neighbors, and disputed territories. Graphic: Central Intelligence Agency

Furthermore, al-Sisi would ask officials in Israel to grant autonomy to the Palestinian Authority over all cities having majorities of Palestinian residents. The PA would run civic life in any of those cities. But in return, Mahmoud Abbas would give up all claim to the lands that the people of Israel call Judea and Samaria, and the rest of the world calls “The West Bank.”

Al-Sisi tried to tell Abbas he ought to accept the plan. Mahmoud Abbas is 80 years old. If he doesn’t accept the plan, his successor might. So said al-Sisi. But he could not convince Abbas, and Abbas definitely refused.

IDF Radio also said American officials knew about and approved the plan. So did Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of Israel. But Netanyahu did not brief any of his officials about it.

What does Egypt say now?

The foreign ministry of Egypt denies al-Sisi offered any such land grant. The Palestinians also denied ever having any such offer from Egypt. They also said they would reject such an offer even if Egypt made one. But hours later, members of Netanyahu’s cabinet and governing coalition praised the offer from Egypt as reasonable and feasible.

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The i24 report also said the “unity government” between al-Fatah, who runs things in Judea and Samaria, and Hamas in Gaza, could fall apart any time.

What would it mean?

The IDF radio report said the new, massive Palestinian state would be “demilitarized.” That suggests no army, and no militia. We know the new state’s borders would extend the Gaza Strip south of the Camp David Treaty line. But how else would the boundary line run? None of the reports says. Nor did anyone publish a map to tell us.

The people of Israel would welcome anything that sounds like a peaceful solution. The generals who run Egypt want to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood and its chapter, Hamas. But would either country realize its goals? How long would Greater Gaza stay demilitarized?

The Egypt offer would recognize all land beyond the limits of Jericho, Ramallah, and other such cities as Jewish land, open to Jewish settlement. But how long would peace last, with a number of cities now become effective no-go zones to outsiders?

We might never know the answers. Because as usual, the offer turned out to be too good for a Palestinian leader to take.

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Terry A. Hurlbut has been a student of politics, philosophy, and science for more than 35 years. He is a graduate of Yale College and has served as a physician-level laboratory administrator in a 250-bed community hospital. He also is a serious student of the Bible, is conversant in its two primary original languages, and has followed the creation-science movement closely since 1993.

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[…] Egypt offers Sinai lands? […]

TheEgyptian

This is a fairly classic case of Israel using state affiliated media to “test the waters” for policy reactions, without having to commit to anything official.

Tri-national land-swaps between Israel, Palestine and Egypt have been mooted before, and have never got anywhere, and a Bi-national one would simply be a way for Israel to avoid giving anything up for peace – apparently the Israeli government thinking it really might get a free lunch.

There is no indication Egypt genuinely made any such offer, and indeed stands to gain nothing in doing so, but would gain a lot of headaches.

Firstly, Egypt would be giving up territory for absolutely nothing in return. OK, it’s not useful land in and of itself, the EEZ associated with any land adjoining Gaza (and therefore the coast) is likely has gas reserves, as the EEZ of Gaza is known to be.

Secondly, and much more importantly, is the idea of an enlarged Palestinian-Egyptian border is one of Egypt’s worst nightmares. The Sinai is already awash with weapons, drugs and rebels/criminal gangs due to the three-way Gaza-Egypt-Israel border. Whilst Egypt can interact with the Israelis on a state to state basis to at least try and halt the worst of the smuggling along their shared border (something that both sides have a variable tolerance for, depending on the political currents at any given time), that with the Palestinians is a nightmare without end. The tunnel economy is one of the biggest factors in rendering the entire northern Sinai one step away from becoming a full on breakaway region. An enlarged border is only going to make that worse.

Finally, if such a state were demilitarised there is nothing to stop the Israelis entering it and using it as a bridge head to push into Egypt, being able to get deep into the Sinai before meeting Egyptian forces. This would go against an unchanging constant in Egyptian policy – that of keeping the Sinai as a buffer-zone against incursions from the Levant.

Sisi isn’t an idiot – he and the entirety of the Egyptian political-military elite know that any such proposal would be strategic suicide, a policy with no positives but many negatives.

The Israelis are aware, that the political currents in Europe are running against them right now, and are fishing for options that may help them regain the diplomatic upper hand there. It was worth a shot, but it would be clear to anyone with even a slight awareness of what’s happening in Cairo that this idea isn’t – and never was – a realistic option.

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