Is Texas independence realistic?

Texas is almost at the top of the news, by reason of its unique active border security measures. Furthermore, Texas independence has become a mainstream subject, chiefly because the Texas Nationalist Movement has beaten that drum for years. Lately the TNM has raised the issue repeatedly on its official X account. But the TNM must now do more than talk about Texas independence. If they ever hope to get a Texas independence bill passed – and such bills have already failed twice – they must convince their fellow Texans that independence is not only feasible, but can happen with a minimum of inconvenience of transition. And to do that, they must have a transition program written and ready to go when anyone signs any treaties.

Where the Texas border dispute stands

The United States Supreme Court electrified Texas when they vacated an injunction by the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals against the federal government. This vacatur said only that the U.S. Border Patrol may cut holes in the border fence, topped with concertina wire, that the Texas National Guard has erected. That fence, near Eagle Pass, Texas, is highly effective. A migration stream, with estimates at three thousand crossings a day, dwindled to a mere six. And thanks to another Texas law, Texas law-enforcement officers are arresting the few migrants who make it across.

The Texas National Guard now occupies Shelby Park, near Eagle Pass, and won’t allow the Border Patrol near the fence. So the Biden administration threatens to federalize the Texas National Guard if they don’t make way. But the Border Patrol Union has already said their members will not arrest Texas National Guardsmen. As far as they’re concerned, if their governor gives them an order within the law, they must obey.

Most people reading about the Texas border dispute miss one important distinction. The Supreme Court’s action only said the Border Patrol may cut the concertina wire – if they can get close enough. But the Court said nothing about making sure the Border Patrol could get that close. To do that, the Court would have had to grant a full review of the entire case. They haven’t, so as it stands, the Texas National Guard may repair the breaches and interdict the Border Patrol from creating any more.

Texas Nationalist Movement comes close to proclaiming Texas independence

Meanwhile, the Texas Nationalist Movement has not been idle. The past forty-eight hours has seen a flurry of activity on their X account, mainly in response to ignorant or arrogant pronouncements by at least one Presidential candidate, among others. For example:

Nikki Haley just made the most salient concession any federal official or candidate has ever made as regards secession. “Texas can secede but won’t” is not the same as “Texas can’t secede.”

But yesterday evening, New Hampshire Rep. Jason Gerhard (R-Northfield-Franklin) wrote TNM to advise them of two bills now on the floor of the New Hampshire House of Representatives. One is a referendum on declaring State independence if the national debt rises above $40 trillion. The other is a New Hampshire independence study bill, similar to the Texas Independence Referendum Bills. That second bill would create an official Study Committee similar to the committee the Texas bills envision.

Excited, TNM shared this on their account, and called on Gov. Chris Sununu (R-N.H.) to support that movement. More to the point, TNM spoke in terms of a Texas-New Hampshire alliance.

See also:

One self-described Texan charged that, if Texas secedes, the rest of the United States comes under a Democratic trifecta. But another user was not so sure about that.

The TNM has been regularly posting obvious primary endorsements on its account, of candidates supporting their position. But three days ago they also posted this warning:

What Texas independence will mean, and require

That last post is a clarion call to Texas real-estate agents to prepare for a wave of residential turnover. But before that happens, Texas, and the TNM, must take stock. Texas independence partisans have two sources for information, mainly on how to make secession happen. They are the TNM home site, and the separate site that Dan Miller, head of TNM, keeps. Miller has written a book on the subject: Texit: Why and How Texas Will Leave the Union. In the landing page for selling this book, he shares six bullet points. The three most salient for this discussion are:

• His contention that Texas’ “relationship with the Federal Government is like having a Hurricane Harvey hit Texas every 9 months,”
• A discussion on the actual spread between Texas income taxes and federal grants, and
• His bold prediction that the average Texan could “increase [his] take-home pay by 600%.”

To his credit, Miller also says his book offers possible transitional solutions for:

• Social Security,
• Military and Defense,
• Trade,
• Travel,
• Currency & Banking, and
• The National Debt.

Miller discussed other political undercurrents that, when he wrote the book, militated against Texas independence. Those considerations might not be current anymore – because the Texas border dispute supersedes them. To the extent that any of them are current, certain players are already making countermoves. The Texas Nationalist Movement, furthermore, is not the only such player.

The immediate crisis

American independence had its roots in a crisis. The “mother country” brought this on by trying to tax Americans to pay for the Seven Years’ (“French-Indian”) War. The Texas border dispute could easily provoke the final sweep-aside of all remaining obstacles to Texas independence.

Already, Texas has allies in this crisis. Twenty-five State governors have pledged support of Texas in stopping the influx of mendicant and possibly hostile illegal immigrants. At least ten of these have already sent contingents of their own National Guards to assist toward this end.

The trigger could come with an order to federalize the Texas National Guard. On Wednesday of last week, Robert “Beto” O’Rourke actually asked President Joe Biden, in effect, what he was waiting for.

The next day, Gov. Abbott said he was “prepared” for that, according to The Hill.

The Governor has not said how he was prepared, except to hint at using other “armed state personnel” to replace the National Guard, if he must. In fact the Texas Military Department oversees a Texas State Guard – and Congress has never “provided” for federalizing that force. So the governor could simply discharge the Texas National Guard and enlist all its personnel in the State Guard. The Air National Guard would present a problem, because they lease their ground assets from the U.S. Air Force. Perhaps the three wings of the Air Guard could re-station at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, George Bush Intercontinental Airport (Houston), Dallas Love Field, Houston Hobby Airport, etc.

Political personalities

The key enemy of Texas independence among elected officials has always been Rep. Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont). He has been the Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives since 2021. Before then, he was Chair of the all-important House Committee on State Affairs.

By every available account, he, more than any other Member, is responsible for “chubbing” the two Texas independence referendum bills. (“To chub a bill” means to delay it to death by whatever procedure is appropriate at any given time.) During the dramatic impeachment case against Attorney General Ken Paxton, Paxton and others called for Phelan’s resignation. Now Donald J. Trump has “messed in,” by endorsing a primary challenger to Phelan. NBC News reported this two days ago. The challenger, David Covey, already has the TNM’s endorsement, having signed the Texas First Pledge. That pledge specifically binds any signatory to work toward Texas independence.

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has made several forceful pronouncements, mainly in support of Texas’ border dispute position. Any “Texit” Study Committee would include the Lieutenant Governor as a member ex officio. He hasn’t yet signed the Texas First Pledge, however.

Gov. Abbott seems to be doing everything within his power to resolve the border dispute in a satisfactory manner. Already he has surprised many independence advocates for the courage he has shown. But if Joe Biden makes a satisfactory resolution impossible – and then wins reelection, honestly or not, he then will have a serious decision to make.

What happens after Texas independence?

But any Texan, reading campaign or fundraising mail, or a ballot question, mentioning Texas independence, will have one important question. Suppose Texas does replace “State” with “Republic” in its name. What then? What about…

The Texas Nationalist Movement must prepare to answer that question when, as is inevitable, people ask it. What about Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid, trade, travel, currency, and a banking system? And will Texas get “stuck” with $600 billion of the national debt?

To its credit, the TNM has a landing page for essays treating at least some of those questions. Those essays make many factual assertions that, if true, make a strong case for either:

1. Full-on Texas independence, or
2. Using the threat of Texas secession to force badly-needed reforms.

That threat could suffice to solve the border crisis, for example – or to force a repeal of Amendment XVI. In general, Dan Miller and his TNM assert that Texas could replace all existing federal programs through:

1. Laying and collecting its own taxes to replace Federal income and Social Security taxes, and
2. Administering such programs more honestly and efficiently.

Still, these are generalizations. Generalizations will never suffice to appeal to Texans with real-world concerns. Nor can they persuade Americans now living outside of Texas to start calling real-estate selling agents and tasking them to look for houses to move into (or apartments to rent). Such people will need, and demand, specific solutions, ready to implement the moment the ink drieson any secession instrument.

Hopeful signs for Texas strength

Having said that, Texas already bids fair to get stronger – strong enough, one hopes, to gain independence, or wring reforms from Washington, without war. Texas has, in the past several years, gained at least some industries necessary to arm an independent military. Elon Musk’s Tesla company relocated its physical headquarters to Texas. Today he announced his intention to re-incorporate the company itself in Texas. He did so after a Delaware judge disallowed a multi-million-dollar compensation package for himself.

As a result, Texas will have its own automotive industry, independent of any other State. It already has its own space industry, the Space Exploration Technologies Company (SpaceX). This report shows all companies, from 2020 to the present, which have moved, physically and/or administratively, to Texas.

CNAV covered other practical considerations for Texas independence three years ago. But these areas need work. The Electrical Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) badly needs reform, as two harsh winters have shown. TNM has directly addressed one key problem: ERCOT must abandon “renewable energy” projects that are unreliable in the cold.

Texas is not likely to see many leftists moving in to try to change Texas culture. It hasn’t yet, and is less likely for one reason: abortion. Leftists will not leave their abortion tourist-trap States for the Texas Abortion Desert. (See the NBC Abortion Map.)

Thus Texas might be stronger than people think. But it cannot realize its strength without the assurance of specific, ready-to-go solutions.