Republican path to one-party rule

Democrat-sympathetic commentators already are going beyond lamenting the reelection of Donald Trump and Republican control of the United States Senate. They actually fear that Republicans will keep the Senate for the foreseeable future. The roster the Senate will have on January 3, 2025 gives superficial reason to believe that. But the Republican majority is still slender – and fractious, if the controversies over Trump’s Cabinet nominations are any indicator. If Republicans actually want one-party rule, then first they have to make up their minds to achieve it. A definite pathway exists, but it will require a tough, long-term slog.

What’s all this talk of Republican one-party rule?

Last Thursday (December 5), in The Hill, Yale Law School student Ilani Nurick gave a (for her) dire warning. The Republican Party, in “flipping” the Senate, had installed a permanent majority. Why? Because

For the first time in a century, there is not one Democratic senator from a reliably red state.

That’s because all the annoying “popular Democratic incumbents” in solid Republican States have by now lost reelection. First to fall, among those she named, was Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) in 2004. Then Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) fell in 2010, and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) in 2014. That last year became critical, for with Mary Landrieu’s loss, Republicans captured the Senate the last time.

But Republicans had several weak Senators, whose fall would tee up Democratic control, beginning in 2020. The entire Senate delegation of Georgia fell in 2020, for example. (The Atlanta OOE Suitcase Scandal certainly played its part. But as four years of elections have shown, a strong-enough candidate can beat any cheat the Democrats can now devise.) Similarly, Martha McSally fell in Arizona, and that’s one reason Arizona also has a full Democratic Senate delegation.

Nevertheless, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) fell in 2018, likely the one reason Republicans kept the Senate long enough to form the current three-bloc structure of the United States Supreme Court. (They did this by replacing liberal Ruth Bader Ginsburg, now deceased, with moderate Amy Coney Barrett.) This year, Republicans replaced Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Robert Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Those four “flips” gave the Senate to the Republicans.

The Senate roster, moving forward

Now, says Nurick, Democrats have Senate representation only from reliably Democrat and swing States. Republicans have Senators in swing States, too: Dale McCormick (R-Pa.), Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.), and both North Carolina Senators (Thom Tillis and Ted Budd). Republicans also have Susan Collins in Maine – but she votes reliably Republican only for control-decision purposes. Even were Democrats to defeat all five, they’d have only fifty-two Senators. To get that number would require three election cycles: 2026 (Collins and Tillis), 2028 (Johnson and Budd), and 2030 (McCormick). Not until the Election of 2028 could the hope to “flip” the Senate – assuming all other Party affiliations stay the same.

But Republicans – if they work at it – can start to expand their majority right away. In 2026 they could knock out Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Then in 2028 they could target Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.). Finally, in 2030 they target Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wisc.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), and Jackie Rosen (D-Nev.). This, as Nurick calculated, would give them a 62-seat majority.

With this majority, the filibuster would be of no moment, even if the Republican majority leaves it in place. But Republicans clearly need greater control than that.

Road to a supermajority

In addition to the nine listed above, they need five more to win a two-thirds supermajority. The four weakest “carries” for Kamala Harris in the Election of 2024 were Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. Activist Scott Presler, famous for increasing voter registration in Pennsylvania, has named New Jersey as his next target. Nearly eight years of misrule by Gov. Pat Murphy (D-N.J.), and the recent resignation of Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), make that State vulnerable. The Senate target would be Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.).

The Republican Party of Virginia is not fighting to win, but merely to do favors for its “old boys.” That, plus an appallingly weak Senate candidate who didn’t want to campaign, cost them not only Virginia’s electoral college delegation but also the chance to replace Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). In the next off-year election, Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R-Va.) is running for Governor against soon-to-retire Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.). Republicans have an opportunity to keep the Governorship, if they start fighting to win. Donald Trump could help by reducing the Northern Virginia Federal workforce by then. Then they could find a better Senate candidate and knock out Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.).

That leaves New Mexico, where Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) faces reelection in 2026. Minnesota also has a Senator facing reelection in that year: Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.). But none of these four target States has a Senator facing reelection in 2028. So 2030 is the earliest opportunity to “get to two-thirds.”

What a Republican Senate majority can do

What would the Republicans do with a Senate majority, or especially a supermajority? This depends on the new ground game (real and virtual, i.e. electronic) in several “red” States. Iowa is a prize example, with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) campaigning against SecDef nominee Pete Hegseth, trying to deny it, and provoking the wrath of every conservative influencer on YouTube. A movement has already started to encourage Kari Lake – native to Iowa – to look for a house there. Also, Susan Collins could either switch parties or lose to a Democrat in 2026. So the Republicans must capture every seat they can – and “primary” a few RINO Senators while they’re at it.

Ilani Nurick told her readers what a Republican Senate majority could do, if they had enough confidence in themselves:

1. Abolish the filibuster, to start “making things happen” now, not in 2030.
2. Refuse to confirm any more Democratic judges, even if vacancies remain.
3. Erase the Liberal Bloc on the Supreme Court. (If they have a smart President, they can replace them all with Originalists as they retire or die.) The Moderate Bloc would remain, though Chief John Roberts might be first to retire.
4. “Mold the [national] judiciary in their ideological image.”

About the courts

In that last, Nurick fell short on details, but CNAV can supply more. It means completing the repair of the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. But perhaps Congress should revisit Sen. Ron Wyden’s (D-Ore.) bill to reconfigure the courts. Clearly some Circuits are too big for one Court to handle. Splitting circuits has happened before, and should happen again.

The Ninth Circuit has a ridiculous eleven States and territories. No other Circuit has more than seven (the Eighth). Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the Northern Marianas deserve their own Circuit. Arizona should rejoin its fellow Four Corners States in the Tenth. Idaho, Montana, and the Dakotas should form a new Circuit, and the Tenth can give Kansas to the Eighth. Oklahoma belongs with Texas in the Fifth.

Thus the new Circuits would look like this:

The supermajority

A Senate supermajority can expel Senators. Today expulsion is a rare remedy, which the Senate has invoked only for treason or such conduct, like sexual harassment of office staff, that ill befits a Senator. Even then the Senate has applied that selectively – to Republicans in blue States (like Mark Hatfield of Oregon). They long had grounds to apply that to Senator Menendez of New Jersey, but didn’t do it. (Menendez dropped out of his Senate race this year upon conviction of bribery.)

But maybe it’s time to expel Senators who pour contempt on the Constitution with some of their bills and votes. More important even than that, is that a supermajority Republican Senate, and a majority Republican House, can actually remove Presidents, Vice-Presidents, other “civil officers,” and judges on impeachment for, and conviction of, some of the worst offenses that have come from the now-lame-duck administration. Sadly, the Senate has removed only one judge from the bench: Alcee Hastings, whom they removed following a bribery conviction. They cynically declined to disqualify him from holding further office, so he ran for the House of Representatives – and won. He finally exited that body – feet first.

Recently Justice Sonia Sotomayor condescendingly implied to the Tennessee Solicitor General that hormonal poisoning was no worse than prescribing aspirin. That’s only her latest act of sullying her office. When the arbiters of the Constitution presume to amend it, that should be impeachable. That goes double and triple for the Supreme Court.

The Republican opportunity

The Republican Party has this opportunity primarily because the Democrats overplayed their hand. This goes beyond their losing the Presidency and Senate control. Axios, a clearly leftist publication, admits that Joe Biden has divided the Democratic Party. Running again when he was clearly infirm and everyone knew it, was his first offense. Pardoning his son was his second. That act infuriated donors already smarting from Biden’s refusal to step aside long before he did. Now they might even refuse to finance his Presidential Library.

Mike LaChance at The Gateway Pundit reports that the outgoing Democratic National Committee Chairman, Jaime Harrison, wants his Party to keep pushing “identity politics.” But as Austin Sarat at The Hill points out, those who “identify” as “minorities” aren’t interested. Trump made significant gains in all the Democrats’ favorite demographics – because their members realized the Democrats had conned them.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Tommy Aramony of National Public Affairs also observed that “diversity” has not “killed” the Republican Party – far from it. But Aramony also offered this advice:

This election should serve as a blueprint to future Republicans running for office that the best way to win over Hispanic voters is by implementing conservative policy solutions, particularly concerning immigration, crime, and the economy. Now it is up to President Trump to follow through on these campaign promises and restore American greatness in an ever-changing America.

In forecasting that change, the Republican Party would do well to consider an often-neglected driver of it: differential fertility. Some liberal women are opting for sterilization; the rest practice birth control. They must think to leave the planet empty. Instead, conservative women will have the children. So the real imperative is to protect conservative families, so they can thrive without interference.

Don’t waste it

Next year the current new class of Senators will take their seats, and a new President will take office. That allows Republicans to implement many of these suggested changes at once. But activists and Party committee members should start now to prepare for the federal election cycles to come. This also includes upcoming off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

Between now and 2027, Republicans in Kentucky must select and unite behind a candidate who will command the votes of all Republicans – not half of them, as Daniel Cameron did last year, which was why he lost. Andy Beshear is a Democrats’ Democrat, and wants abortion on demand. As long as he remains in office, he will obstruct all family-friendly measures. Sadly, he might soon test Kentucky’s unique interim-Senator appointment law, that requires him to select among three candidates Kentucky Republicans put forward, should Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) resign – or die in office. He has publicly said, in effect:

Screw that! I’ll appoint whom I d____d well please to the Senate!

If he does that, Senate Republicans should exercise their power, as

sole judge[s] of the elections, returns and qualifications of [their] own members,

and refuse to seat any Interim Senator whom Beshear appoints other than as Kentucky Law provides.

Heretofore, Democrats have owned Washington, D.C., and Republicans have only rented space in it. The Republican Party must now own the capital, and no longer allow Democrats to obstruct them. They should “primary” every RINO Senator from a red State, while also challenging every swing-State Senator remaining. Then the Senate can join President Trump in “Mak[ing] America Great Again.”