Israel’s June Strikes Exposed the Fragility—and Possible Collapse—of the Iranian Regime

Between June 13 and 16, 2025, Israel launched a coordinated series of air, missile, and cyberattacks deep into Iranian territory. Known as Operation Rising Lion, these precision strikes were not just a military counteroffensive; they constituted a strategic dismantling of the Islamic Republic’s foundational structures. For the first time since 1979, the regime appears not only vulnerable but structurally compromised.

Iran – A Regime Built on Control, Now Exposed

The Islamic Republic of Iran functions through a tightly woven theocratic-military architecture. Its survival hinges on the cohesion of five core systems: the Supreme Leader’s office, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the intelligence-security apparatus, oil revenue and sanctions-evasion networks, and ideological control through clerical and media dominance. In one coordinated campaign, each of these pillars was hit with precision.

The Supreme Leader’s Circle Decimated

Ali Khamenei’s Office of the Supreme Leader (Beyt-e Rahbari) has long operated as the nucleus of power in Iran. During the Israeli strikes, Khamenei reportedly retreated to a secure location and ceased public appearances. Key advisors and top military officials were killed in the initial waves, including:

• Ali Shamkhani (former Supreme National Security Council head)
• Major General Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces)
• Major General Hossein Salami (Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC)
• Major General Gholam Ali Rashid (Commander of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central HQ)
• Brigadier Generals Gholamreza Mehrabi, Mehdi Rabbani, Mohammad Kazemi, and Mohammad Hassan Mohakek (key figures in intelligence and operations)
• Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani (former nuclear chief)

These losses constitute a decapitation strike on the regime’s senior leadership and create an unprecedented power vacuum at the top.

The IRGC: Hollowed From Within

The IRGC serves not only as Iran’s elite military force but also as its economic enforcer, foreign policy executor, and internal security bulwark. During Operation Rising Lion, Israeli strikes:

• Targeted IRGC aerospace command facilities in Isfahan
• Destroyed drone storage and production near Kermanshah
• Hit cyber warfare and logistics command nodes in Tehran and Shiraz

More than 200 IRGC personnel, including senior aerospace officers, were reportedly killed. Losses in manpower and infrastructure have deeply disrupted IRGC operational capacity both domestically and across the region. These attacks cripple the regime’s asymmetric warfare and economic influence.

Intelligence Paralysis in Iran

Iran’s security-state model relies heavily on its intelligence infrastructure, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), IRGC Intelligence, and the Basij. On June 14, a precision strike leveled the IRGC’s secret intelligence hub in Tehran. Cyber operations simultaneously disabled secure communication between the MOIS and provincial authorities.

The confirmed deaths of Kazemi and Mohakek, two top intelligence chiefs, have created operational blind spots. Internal reports suggest a breakdown in surveillance of urban areas, exposing the regime to spontaneous unrest and sabotaging its capacity to preempt protest.

Oil Revenues Under Siege

Iran’s ruling class survives on oil revenues, legal exports, and a shadowy sanctions-evasion network operated by IRGC front companies. During the strikes:

• Phase 14 of the South Pars gas field was hit, halting 12 million m3 of gas production
• Fires erupted at the Fajr-e Jam refinery (Bushehr) and Shahr Rey facility (south of Tehran)
• The Shahran fuel depot (Tehran) was bombed, disrupting key reserves
• The Abadan refinery, Iran’s oldest and largest, was struck, with satellite images showing major smoke plumes

Cyber operations paralyzed oil logistics, revealing the regime’s vulnerability to disruptions in its economic lifeline. The effect is twofold: a crippling of domestic fuel supply and exposure of the covert network sustaining elite patronage.

Propaganda and Narrative Control Crushed

State media is a vital instrument of regime stability. During the strikes, IRIB’s main transmission center in Tehran was knocked offline, and national broadcasts were down for over 36 hours. Opposition media and encrypted social platforms filled the vacuum, circulating footage of explosions, blackouts, and protests.

Cyberattacks hijacked local broadcasts in Shiraz and Tabriz, displaying anti-regime slogans and protest images. For a state that equates control of narrative with control of reality, this breach was deeply destabilizing.

Clerical Legitimacy in Crisis in Iran

Velayat-e Faqih—the regime’s theological claim to authority—has been shaken. In Qom, some mid-level clerics and even members of the Assembly of Experts have voiced disapproval of Khamenei’s leadership and foreign policy miscalculations. Private statements and public silences indicate a rift between the clergy and the regime’s security elite.

While overt rebellion among top clerics remains unlikely, the erosion of spiritual legitimacy weakens the ideological foundation that has long distinguished the Islamic Republic from secular authoritarian models.

The System Itself is Failing

The regime’s central nervous system—a blend of coercive control, ideological monopoly, and elite cohesion—has suffered systemic failure:

• IRGC command-and-control centers dismantled
• Cyber paralysis of military logistics and energy exports
• Mass casualties among top commanders
• Compromised surveillance and media blackouts
• Protests erupting in Tehran, Shiraz, Rasht, and Mashhad with chants of “Death to the Dictator” and “Our enemy is here, not in Israel!”

This is not just a tactical defeat. It is an existential unraveling.

Strategic Shocks Converge

The Islamic Republic has endured war, isolation, and mass dissent. But June 2025 presented four simultaneous shocks:

1. Degradation of IRGC aerospace capabilities
2. Failure of national air defense (S-300, Bavar-373)
3. Cyber paralysis of power grids, communications, and transport
4. Renewed urban unrest and elite division

If the regime collapses, it will begin not with conquest but internal decay. The June strikes may be seen as the inflection point.

A Turning Point for U.S. and Allied Policy Toward Iran

This is not a call for Western military action. It is a call for strategic foresight.

The United States and its allies should:

• Publicly affirm Iranians’ right to self-determination
• Provide secure communication tools and anti-censorship technology
• Support independent media and opposition platforms

Israel has delivered the blow that exposed the cracks. What the West does next may determine whether those cracks lead to collapse or retrenchment. The Islamic Republic was built to resist external pressure, but it may not survive internal collapse exposed by surgical precision. June 2025 didn’t just mark a strike on Iran; it marked the beginning of a new era.

Editor’s Note

Dr. Parsa published this essay on Thursday, June 19, 2025. Two days later, assets of the United States Navy and Air Force struck three facilities in Iran’s nuclear program. The current Iran leadership announced their intention to close the Straits of Hormuz.